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Thread: how high of "ROI" would be considered good

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  1. #1 how high of "ROI" would be considered good 
    Rx Wizard Iceman's Avatar
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    Have kept metacullious(sp) record for a few years. Have tried many different methods and over a 1,000 bet sample I am lucky to have a ROI of 2.5 %. Not good or bad I would say average. Always try to get to the 4%(54% ats) range that to me is good? Do you guys keep this number and know yours? What do you think would be a good goal for 1000 bet sample?
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  2. #2  
    RX Wizard cincy_'s Avatar
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    If you're a recreational gambler like me ANYTHING POSITIVE is good.
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  3. #3  
    RX Wizard royalfan's Avatar
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    I don't keep track of percentages. No point to it. I just make wagers and make money. Doesn't matter what percentage you hit, you just need to make money.
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  4. #4  
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    i am with you guys...i think if you put a percent out there, you may overdue it at times, and if you get hot, you may make some wrong bets...i just treat every bet like it is my only one, and go from there....and stay in the green
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  5. #5  
    Rx Wizard Iceman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by royalfan
    I don't keep track of percentages. No point to it. I just make wagers and make money. Doesn't matter what percentage you hit, you just need to make money.
    How do you know you make money if you don't keep track? To me it helps show me my strenghts and weaknesses and this number tells you if you are going forward or backwards. Show me someone who doesn't keep records and I will show you a lifetime loser.
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  6. #6  
    RX Wizard cincy_'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ice man
    How do you know you make money if you don't keep track? To me it helps show me my strenghts and weaknesses and this number tells you if you are going forward or backwards. Show me someone who doesn't keep records and I will show you a lifetime loser.
    Tracking of records and bankroll is different from tracking of ROI.

    An goal for ROI is useless and so is tracking it unless its broken down.

    If your ROI is -2.5% and you have a goal of +4%, do you now start forcing plays? Do you now start increasing your wager size?

    Corporations and upper management use this to determine which department, which branch, which product is doing well because they want to compare apples to apples. When I'm gambling with my own money, why do I have to compare my ROI with anyone else's?

    Aside from that, ROI would only be useful in tracking MLB and NHL plays. Because of the changing vig, the winning percentage doesn't mean a heck of a lot - but just having an ROI doesn't mean much either.

    For example:

    You could be hitting 60% winners and have a negative ROI.

    Does that mean you're playing too many favorites and have to lay off and play more dogs?

    It might not. Further breakdown of the records might show you are losing money on -110 to -150 favorites but actually winning money when laying -150 to -200.
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  7. #7  
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    Quote Originally Posted by royalfan
    I don't keep track of percentages. No point to it. I just make wagers and make money. Doesn't matter what percentage you hit, you just need to make money.
    You got that right.
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  8. #8  
    RX Wizard Woody0's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincy_
    If you're a recreational gambler like me ANYTHING POSITIVE is good.
    I agree, but I do keep a meticulous database which shows my ROI for this year is currently 0.22%, last year was 0.92%. Of course the numbers mean nothing, other than I'm not losing.
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  9. #9  
    RX Senior edub69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ice man
    How do you know you make money if you don't keep track? To me it helps show me my strenghts and weaknesses and this number tells you if you are going forward or backwards. Show me someone who doesn't keep records and I will show you a lifetime loser.
    Pretty easy...look at the bank account you use for gambling, and if there's a higher value of Neteller deposits than Neteller withdrawals, you're making money. It's not rocket science.
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  10. #10  
    RX Wizard royalfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edub69
    Pretty easy...look at the bank account you use for gambling, and if there's a higher value of Neteller deposits than Neteller withdrawals, you're making money. It's not rocket science.
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  11. #11  
    Life is Good Heatwave's Avatar
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    I calculate ROI for my plays, because of different unit values for different sports. This helps for "apples to apples" comparisons between sports. I believe that anything 3% and over is outstanding over a season of plays.

    Money is the name of the game, I agree, and too much analysis of stats like ROI can be a waste of time. However, one spot where I think it really helps is to compare handicappers when "borrowing" plays from posting forums. Take the Tracker Forum Standings. Not knocking anyone here, but take Journeyman's baseball for instance. Many of his plays are $500 and $600 plays. Now, he finished the season up about $25K or something like that, which is a great season (congrats Journey). But how much better is he than a guy who posted the same amount of plays, but played them for $100. Without ROI, you will never know. There might be a guy who is in the middle of the list in $ gained who is killing the man, but is overshadowed because his risk amounts are lower.

    HW
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  12. #12  
    RX Senior edub69's Avatar
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    Don't get me wrong I keep records of all my plays, but to worry about meeting a certain ROI would lead you to wager inconsistently, as your bankroll size is always changing. ROI is more of a descriptive tool than a strategic one, which is what makes it useful in evaluating the records of other bettors.
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  13. #13  
    RX Member pb&j's Avatar
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    i find it odd that a 3% ROI would be considered a success. So if you start out with $1000, you would be happy with a $30 gain at the end of the season?

    Why not put the money into a CD then? They often yield 6% at the end of the year and theres no risk involved at all.

    Or am I missing something while im reading this post?
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  14. #14  
    Life is Good Heatwave's Avatar
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    ROI would be the total return divided by the total amount of the wagers risked; your investment would not be $1,000. Depending on how many games you play and for what amount, your investment could be $10,000.
    So, if you play 2 games a week at $50 at -110, your investment is $110 a week. Over a 17 game season, using same amounts, your total yearly investment is $1,870, and a good season at 3% ROI, would be a gain of $56.10.

    So, if over these 34 games above, you go 18-16 at $50 a game and -110, you would be up $20 for an ROI of 1.1% and a winning percentage of 52.9%. A 19-15 record would net you $125, an ROI of 6.7%, and a 55.9% winning percentage.

    HW
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  15. #15  
    RX Senior edub69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pb&j
    i find it odd that a 3% ROI would be considered a success. So if you start out with $1000, you would be happy with a $30 gain at the end of the season?

    Why not put the money into a CD then? They often yield 6% at the end of the year and theres no risk involved at all.

    Or am I missing something while im reading this post?
    We're talking about $$ profit vs. $$ wagered, not final bankroll vs. original bankroll.
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  16. #16  
    RX Senior edub69's Avatar
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    Heatwave, didn't see your reply
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  17. #17  
    RX Wizard WildBill's Avatar
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    5% ROI is pretty solid, 12% is probably about as good as you can hope for over any extended period of time. ROI is a very useful tool for managing your bankroll. If you don't keep track of how you are doing on an ROI basis, you are going to be prone to making bet sizing mistakes and even worse, you will take too much out of your bankroll to the point where someday it could come back to haunt you. A good way to manage this is to know your expected ROI, calculate your volume of plays to come up with an expected return, then discount it for safety to say 75%, and then you know what you should be able to safely take out of your bankroll or how you should size up your bets.

    ROI is also extremely useful if you bet baseball or hockey. No win/loss records mean anything when you have a money-line attached to your bets. ROI is really the only number you should pay attention to on money line bets.
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  18. #18  
    RX Senior edub69's Avatar
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    I suppose that is correct, however I think there are more intuitive things that are important in wagering that are bigger factors in winning money, i.e. which game to risk 5 units vs. which game to risk 1 unit. I guess the ROI might dictate how much money = one unit, and admittedly that is something I will have to take a look at. Most people adjust unit size in direct correlation with the size of their bankroll, it seems like, rather than ROI. I agree that won-loss records in money line sports are to some degree irrelevant.

    However, what happens if you start a season with an expected ROI of say 7% and you come out of the gates with a bad losing streak, what do you do?
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  19. #19  
    Life is Good Heatwave's Avatar
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    I would adjust downward. When estimating a 7% ROI over a season, I think it is unsafe to assume, with a bad start, that you will still hit your 7% ROI for the season.

    I use ROI to estimate unit sizes and wager size increases, but what I do is to try and estimate a season ROI based on my results so far that season. So, if I start out an have a -30% ROI, I estimate how much will be wagered the rest of the season, and assume that I will break even on these units wagered, and then calculate an estimated season ROI, which, with this type of bad start, will be probably somewhere between -1 and -3 percent, depending on what season you are talking about. When your estimated ROI for the season drops below a certain figure, I cut back the amount bet. When it gets above a certain number, I increase it. I recalculate this number weekly for all sports.

    HW
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  20. #20  
    RX Member pb&j's Avatar
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    ahh, my understanding of ROI was completely out of sync. thanks HW
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  21. #21  
    RX Senior edub69's Avatar
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    I think a lot of people use similar strategy without crunching the numbers to the level some of you guys do. It's possible we are losing out a little bit by not doing so. The bottom line is, if you hit most of your big plays, your ROI is going to look pretty good, but your ROI can't tell you which games to bet big. I would actually remove from the calculations any games where you bet a significantly larger amount than normal, because win or lose, it will influence your ROI disproportionately. I guess statisticians would call these outliers.

    Of course you still have to factor the win or loss into your bankroll. If you felt so strongly about a play that you risked 10 units on it when your normal range is 1-5 units, and you win, you can't reliably expect that this will happen all the time. This brings up a separate discussion about money management, but every gambler has a different objective that determines how much of a risk they want to take with their picks. I'm guessing that a lot of the guys who employ ROI as a rule probably wouldn't make a play that is so much higher than their normal bet.
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  22. #22  
    Life is Good Heatwave's Avatar
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    Interesting thing about ROI:

    Let's say you risk $550/$500 on one game. You win. ROI = 90.9%
    You risk $11/$10 on another game. You win that too. ROI = 90.9%

    Thus, you can use ROI without regard to size of wagers. ROI really tracks record, rather than bankroll in -110 sports, but I wager on ML sides in all sports, not just hockey and baseball, so it helps me to gauge where I am at in all sports. Like I said before, it also makes comparisons between handicappers easier, because when comparing a guy who bets $500 and a guy who bets $5 a game, the guy with the bigger bankroll may not be the best handicapper.

    My ROI calculations are to adjust my units up and down, similarly to how some bettors use a certain percentage of bankroll to ramp up and down on the amount that they play per game or per unit. Problem for me in using bankroll is that my hockey/CBB/NBA units are not equal to NFL/NCAAF units, and I ramp up or down on each sport separately. I am a flat unit bettor, and ROI cannot tell you which games to wager more or less on, nor can it pick you winners, which is the bottom line.

    Can't bring myself to betting uneven units anymore. My most successful years were doing that, but also, my worst years were as well. Can't stand the thoughts of going 4-1 and being down 2 units.

    HW
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  23. #23  
    RX Senior edub69's Avatar
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    Agreed. If you are betting the same amount on all games it's more useful.

    It's also why someone who is more willling to make a huge play on one game, and in general places widely varying confidence levels in their bets, shouldn't be looking too hard at ROI. Your cumulative ROI at the end of the year will be disproportionately impacted if you have 90% ROI on a few ten unit plays and 5% ROI on 100 two unit plays.
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  24. #24  
    RX Wizard royalfan's Avatar
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    At the end of every week I keep track by sport how much I won or lost in terms of dollars and add it to yearly sheet. All I care is that those columns grow not what percent I hit and stuff like that. I play a lot of things that are money line oriented so the effort that would go into this would be time wasted when I could be on the hunt for a good wager instead.
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  25. #25  
    2006 People Magazine's Sexiest Handicapper Alive Christian's Avatar
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    if you can make a .05 cent return on every dollar invested long-term....

    ....then you can make a very comfortable career in of this business.

    sure, it can also be done by making only .03 or .04 cents return per dollar invested also, but that's usually pushing it...

    anywhere from .05 cents and up for a ROI per dollar is usually what can sustain you through the ups and downs of a full calendar year of betting.

    but even that can be low for some. one of my best friends is an excellent college handicapper in hoops and FB (i bet all his college plays across the board), he usually brings in between .10 and .15 cents per dollar invested (the equivelant of roughly a 60% win pct. on standard 11/10 bets)...but this is only over 300 plays on average through both seasons combined.

    i usually have well over a 1,000 plays of my own throughout the year and my .05 cent return on 1,000 plays would make me more money than his .14 cent return on 300 plays.

    so a lot of it depends on how many plays you have also. would you rather make .10 cent ROI on 500 plays each year? or .05 cent return on 1,500 plays each year? exactly.
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