To the "veterans" of sports betting...question about long-term success!

How many of you specialize in one (or more) sport..........AND..........have beaten that sport consistently for, say, 7+ years? I am not in that category (started about 3 years ago), but I commend anyone who is. There are probably lots of people here who are in my boat -- short term, moderate success, but I'd like to hear from the "vets" here. I know that most of you who have been doing this for years and years are most likely humble by now, so you probably wouldn't even take an opportunity to brag about yourselves, but I'm not asking you to brag; it's just interesting to me to hear which sports people beat and for how long they've been beating them. Crazy stories from years past and uncommon tips are always fun to listen too as well -- losing streaks, unbelievable years, losing your whole bankroll because you were young and dumb, etc.! Let us 'rookies' (relatively speaking) hear from you!

CalState

Great question!!

Should garnish many great replies from veteran successful posters here!

Fishhead said:

Great question!!

Should garnish many great replies from veteran successful posters here!

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fish, he is talking about you( one of the best advice I have heard came from you. "There will be tremendous bankroll flucuations, be prepared"). Am very interested in hearing from others too. I "turned the corner" and stared winning a little bit about 5 years ago. But upped my plays this NFL seaon and have had miserable start, for the first time in 5 years, some Sundays have been borderline unbearable. Ironic when I took this to another level I have struggled a bit.

CalState said:

How many of you specialize in one (or more) sport..........AND..........have beaten that sport consistently for, say, 7+ years? I am not in that category (started about 3 years ago), but I commend anyone who is. There are probably lots of people here who are in my boat -- short term, moderate success, but I'd like to hear from the "vets" here. I know that most of you who have been doing this for years and years are most likely humble by now, so you probably wouldn't even take an opportunity to brag about yourselves, but I'm not asking you to brag; it's just interesting to me to hear which sports people beat and for how long they've been beating them. Crazy stories from years past and uncommon tips are always fun to listen too as well -- losing streaks, unbelievable years, losing your whole bankroll because you were young and dumb, etc.! Let us 'rookies' (relatively speaking) hear from you!

CalState

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Ok, been betting sports for 25+ years(45 years old now).

For the past 13-14 years been my main source of income.

The first 1-4 years was filled with huge SQUAREDOM..........then started hanging with some of the most knowledgable sportsbetters in the world about a year after I moved to Vegas in 1985 and started to read everything I could get my hands on about sportsbetting.

Currently 20-40% of my winnings come from scalping/middling/contests and the rest handicapping.........have not had a losing year since 1991.

NHL, FOOTBALL, NASCAR, and the NBA are the sports that I handicap and actually wager on from a handicapping standpoint.

My advice to anybody that is just starting out betting sports or for those not winning is to READ and associate yourself with as many informed gamblers as one can. The invent of the internet makes this very easy and TheRX is the #1 on the net for this in my opinion.

Some pointers on how to successfully beat the above sports I mentioned......

NBA

To me, having schedule logs for each team is one of the most important aspects to beating this game consistantly. Scheduling plays an integral part in how a team plays on a given night and is something the casual NBA bettor doesn't give a thought to. I cannot express how important this factor is. Also, would look at TOTALS has a great way to beat this game...........haven't mentioned to many people on the RX ever, but beating NBA totals has been a huge moneymaker for over the years and have beat them everyyear for 13 straight years. PAST HISTORY plays a key role in this......so have your logs not only from the current year, but years past also(past 3 years). Have my personal way on how I come up with my own personal number for a total and it gives me a tremendous advantage of the bookmaker. Will share with the forum someday.

NHL

Of all the sports mentioned, this has been my bread and butter more than anything else. Since this sport garnishes very little action, the oddsmaker pays very little attention to it.........which makes it easier to beat if you follow the game closely. Things have changed this year though, as we no longer have the +.5 goal lines which was provided a huge advantage to many in the know professional hockey bettors. Not sure if I will ever be able to beat again the sameway as in the past without the +.5 goal working for me...........so far, have been..........but barely.

FOOTBALL.

If you do a search, you will find many articles on my theories for beating football.

NASCAR

Concentrate on match-ups!!

Here is a great site to analyze each race and its drivers........

http://www.kafenatid.net/nascar/trackSplits.php

This will give you a quick idea how each driver does at a particular track.

Also, race futures are a great way to find value in a race!!!

For instance, some drivers will open up at over 25-1 early in the week and because of their qualifying record, may drop to under 10-1, you can find great value on many races if you have alot of shops.

OVERALL

1. Get yourself as many OUTS as you can so you can get the best line most of the time.

2. Learn money management

3. Keep good records

4. READ, WATCH, READ, WATCH................games, books, and forums.

5. Never get greedy and/or complacent.

-FISHHEAD-

ice man said:

fish, he is talking about you( one of the best advice I have heard came from you. "There will be tremendous bankroll flucuations, be prepared"). Am very interested in hearing from others too. I "turned the corner" and stared winning a little bit about 5 years ago. But upped my plays this NFL seaon and have had miserable start, for the first time in 5 years, some Sundays have been borderline unbearable. Ironic when I took this to another level I have struggled a bit.

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Thank you.

What ICE MAN is referring to here is this.....

Have a plan in place BEFORE you begin your assault on the bookmaker!

Put yourself in every position possible that may occur and have a plan on how you are going to cope with this.

For example, say you have said to yourself that you are going to wager on the NBA rating your plays all the same with the exception of those select games where you will wager 1.5 times more than your normal wager.

What if you start the season out 2-20......how will you react?

Streaks will happen like this, even for a 55+% handicapper.

PREPARE AHEAD of time and DO NOT PANIC.

I only bet nfl football myself. Love the sport and love numbers, statistics, record keeping etc... been betting since my early teens, winning constantly late teens early twenties! My user name says it all of my "younger" cockier days when I thought I was untouchable. (old email account) Now 31, never worked a real job (poker most my income) two losing seasons since I started, and wouldn't you know it both seasons I was betting way over my head! All through the years kept hearing how it cannot be beat the NFL, only motivated me more. This season again betting huge sums, so I might have my third losing season. We shall see! Don't like tooting my own horn, so I'm done, interested in hearing other peoples stories as well!!!!!!!!!!!

1. Get yourself as many OUTS as you can so you can get the best line most of the time.

2. Learn money management

3. Keep good records

4. READ, WATCH, READ, WATCH................games, books, and forums.

5. Never get greedy and/or complacent.

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above is true.........

i want to add.......

take the emotion out of betting....make it a business.....yes that sounds boring but its the only way to keep emotions in check....


what do emotions have to do with gambling???

chasing loses and blowing your bankroll.....the biggest mistakes you can make.....its why 95% of good handicappers fail at gambling for a living

i have been involved in gambling all my life.........and i am of the belief that successful gamblers are born not made....

meaning that it takes a certain kind of personality to succeed at gambling for a living.....example...accountants, math majors, introverts all have the neccessary qualities it takes to be professional gamblers....they check their emotions at the door...



if you pick on your own...you better be damned sure you know when to cut back your wagers.....

Good post, Fish and PhD......thanks for putting in the time. I wouldn't have guessed NBA Totals would be on someone's list. Totals seem so tough to me (have never had any success with mock betting them) but I've heard how the numbers can be soft sometimes. Fish, I noticed MLB is not on your list. Is this where you get most of your scalps or have you just found it a tough sport to beat?

Thanks again guys!

CalState said:

Good post, Fish and PhD......thanks for putting in the time. I wouldn't have guessed NBA Totals would be on someone's list. Totals seem so tough to me (have never had any success with mock betting them) but I've heard how the numbers can be soft sometimes. Fish, I noticed MLB is not on your list. Is this where you get most of your scalps or have you just found it a tough sport to beat?

Thanks again guys!

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Have proven over the years that I personally CANNOT beat MLB.............which is amazing since I follow the sport closely and it is a sport that bookies dislike about the most because of the low hold and the many winning gamblers that can beat it.

Yes, get alot of scalps with MLB..........probably more so than any other sport.

Dimeplayersonly, can you elaborate on "if you are making your own picks, you better know when to cut back"? I make my own picks, but what would be the difference if I was following someone else? I'm assuming you're just talking about knowing when to cut back in general.

I'd have to agree with you about a certain type of personality having a better chance to succeed at this. Like I said in my original post, I'm not in the "long-term success" category yet, but my attraction to sports betting in the first place comes from my natural liking of statistics, record keeping, numbers, etc. I would think that there are some people who aren't really "math people" or detail oriented that have found a way to make money at this (maybe from psychological angle or just knowing sports), but I hear what you're saying. The desire to dive back into the numbers and keep looking for something that adds to your bottom line and the absolute refusal to be in the red is 75% of the fun for me.

Not saying that I'm never in the red, just saying that it's fun to always be on the prowl for a new opportunity that will add to the BLACK, even when I don't find anything fruitful for very long periods of time -- I like to test things out on paper.

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR title="Post 2331778" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125></TD><TD class=alt2>Dimeplayersonly, can you elaborate on "if you are making your own picks, you better know when to cut back"? I make my own picks, but what would be the difference if I was following someone else? I'm assuming you're just talking about knowing when to cut back in general.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

yeah......in general..


imo..

main aspect of cutting your losses when it comes to a losing streak it...

sharps know when to cut back on their wagers.......sqaures usually chase

i will be the first to admit..........i am a horrible handicapper.....

when i bet,i dont do it on my own....my selections are based on wagers made by the people who gambling for a living....

i bet in 1 or 2 unit increments only..


the biggest difference i see from "handicappers" and "sharps, wiseguys, syndicates,or whatever you want to call them".........

is this...


handicappers post their plays...


sharps bet their plays.............

basically i put more stock in a sharp's selections than a handicapper...

now i know many handicappers bet their own plays....and are very good..

but most do not do it for a living.........



sort of like this.....which usually has more clout......the tip you get the day before the race, that everybody and their brother is talking about.......or the tip 3 minutes before post??

Nice post Dime!!

:money:

Fishhead Were Do You Find The Time To Do Everything

hoopsman1 said:

Fishhead Were Do You Find The Time To Do Everything

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Sometimes I don't.........especially recently.

-Fish-

ps- Have beer in the fridge if you would like to come over and do the dishes in the sink and vaccum.

Thanks Fish.you are so right about reading and listening to guys that give sound advice. I have a notebook next to my computer and jot down things I read on here all day. You just added a few good pointers with some posts in this thread,

Thanks. Do you bet exclusively on-line now?, you moved from Vegas? Do you feel wagering has gotten "easier" with reduced juice, more players or harder because there more "sharps" with the internet. You can tell that you have alot of passion in your threads which means you truly enjoy your work and that is the #1 thing in life, happiness. Keep up the great insight, I promise you there are lots of little fishes out here clinging to your every word (me included)

Fish, One other quick question if your still out there. As a child/teenager were you enamored with statistics and were you the most knowledgeable sports guy in school, to the point that gambling/following sports consumed you more than normal high School activities. I have always tried to explain to girls that I met later in life that I loved sports/gambling and they all never quite understood, like I was some sort of degenerate. Before the internet I never met anyone who read and took sports/gambling so serious as did. Now I know they were out there in other cities. I knew at 15 that I wanted to learn and succeed in this ( haven' yet, I'm 34) more than anything else. Did you sort of know, this was your "calling". That you could prove to others you could do this succesfully?

Make your own power rankings and be patient, most important is to avoid greed.

Dont bet on coaches who were rolexes and turtle neck shirts

ice man said:

Fish, One other quick question if your still out there. As a child/teenager were you enamored with statistics and were you the most knowledgeable sports guy in school, to the point that gambling/following sports consumed you more than normal high School activities. I have always tried to explain to girls that I met later in life that I loved sports/gambling and they all never quite understood, like I was some sort of degenerate. Before the internet I never met anyone who read and took sports/gambling so serious as did. Now I know they were out there in other cities. I knew at 15 that I wanted to learn and succeed in this ( haven' yet, I'm 34) more than anything else. Did you sort of know, this was your "calling". That you could prove to others you could do this succesfully?

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No, since the age of 10, always thought I would become a coach of some kind or another.

Although was always good in math in school...........the one and only subject.

Remember my freshman year in college though and taking a statistics class for the first two semesters............that was about the first time that I knew I could use this to my advantage gambling wise.