To be honest, not overly confident it will be. 
HOWEVER, certainly do not expect anything like last week.
Would expect the DOGS to go 6-8 ATS at the ABSOLUTE worst!!!
Just not confident that this is going to be that breakout 11-3 or better week for the dogs.
Looking at the card, I will go with the dogs going 8-6 ATS on the week.
Who is your top play?
-FISH-
HOWEVER, certainly do not expect anything like last week.
Would expect the DOGS to go 6-8 ATS at the ABSOLUTE worst!!!
Just not confident that this is going to be that breakout 11-3 or better week for the dogs.
Looking at the card, I will go with the dogs going 8-6 ATS on the week.
Who is your top play?
-FISH-
hno:Fishhead said:To be honest, not overly confident it will be.
HOWEVER, certainly do not expect anything like last week.
Would expect the DOGS to go 6-8 ATS at the ABSOLUTE worst!!!
Just not confident that this is going to be that breakout 11-3 or better week for the dogs.
Looking at the card, I will go with the dogs going 8-6 ATS on the week.
Who is your top play?
-FISH-
Counting the TB/WASH game as a wash considering the game flipflopped around PK............the DOGS are sitting at 4-8-1 for the week heading into the MNF affair.
Translation........ I was wrong once again.
-Fish-
ps--Guess I was half-ass right with this statement though......
Just not confident that this is going to be that breakout 11-3 or better week for the dogs.
:smashf: (Me on me)
Just shows that parrity is dead in the NFL is all. Books are simply too slow or simply so far down they can't afford to change now, and have to stick with what they have ben doing the past few years (posting SHIT numbers and having guys lose lose lose), They have TRIED to post some half decent numbers this year, but the teams are so imbalanced it doesn't matter. To top it off seemingly only the "obvious" dogs have been covering.
Right now the faves are 109-34 SU, so at "only" 80-58-5 Books have to feel lucky IMO. With SU numbers like that favs could easiily have 90 wins or more ATS right now. Actually those 5 pushes were all avalaible and even a couple of those losses, so in theory some results might have favs at 90-53. But thankfully for the books enough guys betting the faves are getting thebest number on them.
But again, I am not thinking every guy that bets still load up on the faves and the overs anymore. Enough information, and disinformation exists to have these guys that want to look "smart/sharp" will mix in a dog or two to prove they are not "square". I would rather be square and win, than sharp and lose. There are a lot of broke "sharps" out there right now, and the ones that are not broke have only teasers to thank for their solvency.
No offense to the comments in this thread, but when you have threadslike this, then guys that did come out and bet dogs blined because "they are due", is foolish. Until it happens, or books show the ability to post a line that warrants betting the dog, people HAVE to bet the favorites. It is that simple.
It used to be enough people would be "scared" because the line looked like a "sucker' or "bait" line, as in TOO EASY to be able to bet. Guess what, this year they HAVE been that EASY, and anyone with balls is making a killing.
The books only saving grace (other than a few guys still trying to get dogs to cover) is that weekend a coupel weeks ago when lines moved 2-3 points on EVERY game, and all the line moves lost. If not for that weekend I think a lot of books would be in SERIOUS trouble. Not that one weekend is that big a deal, but IMO I have to thin that was THE best weekend these guys have seen in years. But when overall the year seems to be a disaster, not sure how much it helps.
Will be inetersted to see how many fold up shop or get "bought" out. I don't think that is a coincidence either, all these places joining up or getting bought up. Books are gettig killed this year, and people with money in these small joints better watch out.
Right now the faves are 109-34 SU, so at "only" 80-58-5 Books have to feel lucky IMO. With SU numbers like that favs could easiily have 90 wins or more ATS right now. Actually those 5 pushes were all avalaible and even a couple of those losses, so in theory some results might have favs at 90-53. But thankfully for the books enough guys betting the faves are getting thebest number on them.
But again, I am not thinking every guy that bets still load up on the faves and the overs anymore. Enough information, and disinformation exists to have these guys that want to look "smart/sharp" will mix in a dog or two to prove they are not "square". I would rather be square and win, than sharp and lose. There are a lot of broke "sharps" out there right now, and the ones that are not broke have only teasers to thank for their solvency.
No offense to the comments in this thread, but when you have threadslike this, then guys that did come out and bet dogs blined because "they are due", is foolish. Until it happens, or books show the ability to post a line that warrants betting the dog, people HAVE to bet the favorites. It is that simple.
It used to be enough people would be "scared" because the line looked like a "sucker' or "bait" line, as in TOO EASY to be able to bet. Guess what, this year they HAVE been that EASY, and anyone with balls is making a killing.
The books only saving grace (other than a few guys still trying to get dogs to cover) is that weekend a coupel weeks ago when lines moved 2-3 points on EVERY game, and all the line moves lost. If not for that weekend I think a lot of books would be in SERIOUS trouble. Not that one weekend is that big a deal, but IMO I have to thin that was THE best weekend these guys have seen in years. But when overall the year seems to be a disaster, not sure how much it helps.
Will be inetersted to see how many fold up shop or get "bought" out. I don't think that is a coincidence either, all these places joining up or getting bought up. Books are gettig killed this year, and people with money in these small joints better watch out.
wantitall4moi said:
I have to agree with you here. Especially when you put quotes around "sharps". The real sharps have adjusted their betting to realize that favoring the dogs won't get it done until the trend changes from the faves to the dogs.
I liken this to soccer. In the early part of the year the unders are more prevalent. However, later in the year the linesmakers seem to adjust and they no longer are the winners they used to be. A sharp bettor must adjust his or her capping to take this into consideration.
The real sharps have already adjusted their NFL betting and are still cleaning up.
The next post want makes that has any validity will be his first.
"Parity is dead" yeah, prove it.
Because a bunch of squares have their year which happens once every 10 years or so, you want to wipe out everything about bookmaking from the last 25 years and all of a sudden books are clueless.
Parity has existed since the late 70's and hasn't really varied much since then. Look at scoring differentials, graph win/loss variances etc, hasn't changed much at all.
I would explain it to you but your so fanatical of what you say that its pointless.
"Parity is dead" yeah, prove it.
Because a bunch of squares have their year which happens once every 10 years or so, you want to wipe out everything about bookmaking from the last 25 years and all of a sudden books are clueless.
Parity has existed since the late 70's and hasn't really varied much since then. Look at scoring differentials, graph win/loss variances etc, hasn't changed much at all.
I would explain it to you but your so fanatical of what you say that its pointless.
Charts, graphs and stats mean shit. I am talking about actual wins and losses.
You will have a league full of 11-5 and 5-11 teams at the end of the year. Right now you have a bunch of 7-2 teams and a bunch of 2-7 teams.
You have 9 teams out of 32 that are at .500 or a game above and below it, I predict those teams will either end up well above or well below 500 before it is over.
Parrity means a league with more than half that are at or around 500, with a couple teams here or there 10-6. NO teams 12-4 and NO teams 4-12. THAT is parrity, not some stats that have absolutely NOTHING to do with WINNING.
I would bet my ass that NYG DOMINATED the stats in their game against Minn yesterday..but they LOST, Stats mean SHIT. But leave it to you to point out something that has nothing to do with the argument, you have a great way of doing that.
You will have a league full of 11-5 and 5-11 teams at the end of the year. Right now you have a bunch of 7-2 teams and a bunch of 2-7 teams.
You have 9 teams out of 32 that are at .500 or a game above and below it, I predict those teams will either end up well above or well below 500 before it is over.
Parrity means a league with more than half that are at or around 500, with a couple teams here or there 10-6. NO teams 12-4 and NO teams 4-12. THAT is parrity, not some stats that have absolutely NOTHING to do with WINNING.
I would bet my ass that NYG DOMINATED the stats in their game against Minn yesterday..but they LOST, Stats mean SHIT. But leave it to you to point out something that has nothing to do with the argument, you have a great way of doing that.
If you graph anything it would probably need to be a median (not average since it would be .500 win rate). As in how many teams were .6875 (11-5) How many were .750 (12-4). And how many were 2-14 or 3-13, and how many of those teams there have been the past few years. Comapred to how many 9-7, 8-8, 7-9 teams there have been recently.
There are A LOT more BAD teams this year, with no hopes of improving, than there have been in the past 5 years. Sure you get your Browns, Texans, Card and 49ers who have been habitually 4-12 or worse the past couple years, but this year there are 12 teams that could end that bad, maybe more. BIg junmp from 3-4 teams to a dozen or so.
There are A LOT more BAD teams this year, with no hopes of improving, than there have been in the past 5 years. Sure you get your Browns, Texans, Card and 49ers who have been habitually 4-12 or worse the past couple years, but this year there are 12 teams that could end that bad, maybe more. BIg junmp from 3-4 teams to a dozen or so.
