Are there really any professional (sports) gamblers?

BooksWorstEnemy · Nov 13, 2005

It seems to me that if a guy were beating the books season after season, the books would just stop taking that guy's action and send him a check, saying "you're not welcome here anymore."

We already know that's what every legitimate casino will do with the few who can count cards (MIT blackjack club, for example), so why would the sportsbooks be ANY different?

It just seems to me that if a guy were good enough to make a living at this, enough to feed him and his family, that's gotta be a lot of payouts every month and the books would put a stop to it.

A consistent winner for a sportsbook would just be an extra operating expense...that could be easily eliminated.

Just curious.

Later,
Books Worst Enemy

Santo · Nov 13, 2005

Perhaps in the old market. A non american could win however much he wanted at Betfair -- exchanges starting to launch for the US market could care less how much you win also, so long as they don't seed.

ClipJoint · Nov 13, 2005

Absolutely...if Michael Olowakandi is considered a professional athlete, I can see almost anyone considering themself a professional gambler.

Woody0 · Nov 13, 2005

Your argument has been considered here many times.

A counter position is that "real" sportsbooks rely, to a certain extent, on their sharp players to massage the line they offer.

BooksWorstEnemy · Nov 13, 2005

Woody,

That doesn't make any sense to me at all. The books advertise and work hard to get the public money in the door. They have a lot of operating expenses. They pretty much have to win, and win big, from their client base in order to make money, don't they?

If these so called "sharp friendly" places are really ok with people making a living, doesn't that mean that they just have to work that much harder and advertise that much more to get more public money in the door so they can pay these sharps and their families an income? Wouldn't it make more sense to tell these long term winners to just hit the road? Or do they stand to lose more in reputation by wrongfully accusing others of being beards, so they just let the winners win and that way they know who they are? Or maybe the books have noticed that the long term winners usually end up losing it all back over time and there really are no LONG TERM winners?

Later,
Books Worst Enemy

redpimp · Nov 13, 2005

If you diversify your accounts and manage your money right you can win consistently and not put your books in a big hole..Thats my MO and it has worked fine for a while..

Also pros dont request that many payouts. They have a BR set aside for the entire gambling season or so...They dont take out cash just because they had one huge week..The books know this and dont have to worry about their sharps wanting large payouts midseason... Remember, books are the consumate profilers...They know when philly bob will be shutting down his accounts for the season, (some dont even completely empty their accounts and leave significant amounts there during the dead season for tax purposes) So in a way, the books kinda have the pros money on loan to operate during the off season since they are more or less acting as his savings account)

That being said, if i keep up my methods of winning for about another 3 weeks, i am pretty sure i will be making a post about getting kicked out of a certain big book that i have relentlessly pounded..

Salain · Nov 13, 2005

Books Worst Enemy said:
Woody,

That doesn't make any sense to me at all. The books advertise and work hard to get the public money in the door. They have a lot of operating expenses. They pretty much have to win, and win big, from their client base in order to make money, don't they?

If these so called "sharp friendly" places are really ok with people making a living, doesn't that mean that they just have to work that much harder and advertise that much more to get more public money in the door so they can pay these sharps and their families an income? Wouldn't it make more sense to tell these long term winners to just hit the road? Or do they stand to lose more in reputation by wrongfully accusing others of being beards, so they just let the winners win and that way they know who they are? Or maybe the books have noticed that the long term winners usually end up losing it all back over time and there really are no LONG TERM winners?

Later,
Books Worst Enemy

If you've got a SHARP sharp that you know hits %60 over the NBA season year after year, then following his bets would allow you to move the line so that you're heavy on the side opposite of him. He will make his money off you still, but you'll make a ton more by playing the less-sharp players against him. (Given a %60 winner is a bit extreme, but if you've got 20 profiled sharps you can get those kind of numbers when 5 or n of them are on the same side.)

BooksWorstEnemy · Nov 13, 2005

So what you are saying is, if the sharps that always win are coming in heavy on the second half of the Texans game at Texans +7, as a bookmaker, you move the line from Texans +7 -110 to Texans +7 -135.

Problem is, the sharps have already unloaded at +7, -110. And if they are opposite of the public money, then you are really in trouble because the public is coming in and taking the other team -7 +115.

If they are beating the public to good lines, it would help the book by showing them which to shade. But if they are betting opposite the public, the book is better off just getting rid of them.

Later,
Books Worst Enemy

RobFunk · Nov 13, 2005

I read an article by wild bill where he states something like a pro sports gambler can be identified as the guy with a lot of funded outs like 12 or so. cant quote him exactly, but I would tend to agree with that.

BooksWorstEnemy · Nov 13, 2005

The betting exchanges would solve this problem. But I am not sure they will make it. How does it work if you call the exchange on your way into the stadium and you want to take the home team minus the points but there are no takers the other way? Do you just get told no on the action by the exchanges?

Later,
Books Worst Enemy

Dubpoet · Nov 13, 2005

Clip Joint said:
Absolutely...if Michael Olowakandi is considered a professional athlete, I can see almost anyone considering themself a professional gambler.

Still fricking laughing!

Santo · Nov 13, 2005

Books Worst Enemy said:
The betting exchanges would solve this problem. But I am not sure they will make it. How does it work if you call the exchange on your way into the stadium and you want to take the home team minus the points but there are no takers the other way? Do you just get told no on the action by the exchanges?

Later,
Books Worst Enemy

Yes. But an exchange with volume should have enough at some price, it's just a case of which. With UK horse racing at mid-major meets, you can call betfair from the race track and get perhaps £40k ($70k) down at above market without a flinch.

You'd be mad to do so, but in theory you can. Often millions traded on each 3 minute race.

BooksWorstEnemy · Nov 13, 2005

I have no clue how much volume these places have. Guardian has a free contest every Sunday. Guess the winner of the Sunday NFL games and if you are right, you win $2,500. It is a split pot, so tying winners split.

Last Sunday I hit 13 for 13 and tied with five others. CS said they typically get 600 to 800 entires in that contest.

They must have literally thousands of clients unless they are lying to screw me on the free contest payout. If they really do have that many clients, and I bet they do, maybe they really don't care about a small percentage of consistent winners as long as the winners aren't beating them for $2K per game. If the average wagers from the long term winners are average for all bets made by all customers, maybe they just don't give a shit. Take 96 average wagers from the masses, pay out 4 wagers to the long term winners and everybody is happy.

And then you've also got the long term winners telling friends how much they won which creates more interest amongst the general population. I know I told all my friends how much I won and one of my friends is now betting about $10,000 per weekend with average wagers of $200 per hand. He is not a long term winner, to say the least. I love it when he zeros his accounts because then he calls me.

Later,
Books Worst Enemy

Woody0 · Nov 13, 2005

Books Worst Enemy said:
Woody,

That doesn't make any sense to me at all. The books advertise and work hard to get the public money in the door. They have a lot of operating expenses. They pretty much have to win, and win big, from their client base in order to make money, don't they?

Don't forget the book is just a middle man and makes money by making the market. The vig provides their profit.

My comment about sharps (who will often bet as the line comes out) was to suggest that books can take this information to shade their line, and thus lead the market.

In any case my opinion on a book like Pinny, that moves on action, is that they make money every minute of the day on the vig, irrespective of whether sharp individuals get to middle them. Hope this makes sense.

bigbet1234 · Nov 13, 2005

I do this for a living, believe it or not. I have been booted at a couple places, you just have to spread your money around. Pinny, OLY, CRIS, DSI, GRANDE, all let you win, and don't blink.

BB

spreadbeater · Nov 13, 2005

Clip Joint said:
Absolutely...if Michael Olowakandi is considered a professional athlete, I can see almost anyone considering themself a professional gambler.

:lolBIG:

desertdog · Nov 13, 2005

Books Worst Enemy:

I won one of the Guardian NFL contests last year and I either got the full amount or split in two, can't remember. And I wasn't perfect either. So you had back luck that so many went unbeaten the week you won.

wantitall4moi · Nov 14, 2005

desertdog said:
Books Worst Enemy:

I won one of the Guardian NFL contests last year and I either got the full amount or split in two, can't remember. And I wasn't perfect either. So you had back luck that so many went unbeaten the week you won.

Who says they don't split EVERY winners take by 2 or 3? No matter if they hit 13 or 3? Since it is a "free" contest I guess it soemthing that isn't really "stealing", but it is still dishonest.

So they say they have free 5K contetsts for all memembers, they get a bunch of guys signing up and then theyjust pay out 1K or so for the ocntest,(by telling the winner they had to split it 5 ways) who can prove they don't?

As far as the opening topic. Yes there are. But none of them bet one way. They all scalp, buy back(at half or when lines move enough), or take leads. For the most part they don't win enough to hurt the books.
I have said it on here a thousand times. If I take a 15K lead at PInnacle, and I then take a 15K buy back when they are buried one way, they are basically giving me 400-500 to balance them off on my bet. Now I know, and you know these guys gamble, but if they move that line enough to opene it up for a few guys to get buy backs, they are totally buried one way that is for sure. So rather than totally overexpose themselves, they WILL allow guys to buy back here ad there to help them out(that got the best numbers).

I scalp a couple places from within, and they do not bat an eye lash, that tells me they either do not care, or they are actually manipulating the lines themselves to entice it. There are some that will say they are enticing guys to buy off a "sure winner" or to get the steam guys off the steamed side (thus limitingtheir losses because most guys will buy back). I say this, when the money is FREE I will take it EVERY time. I am not in a pissing contest. If I have 5 games I have leads on, and I can get a FREE 500 per game off them, I will take my chances that over the long haul I will not hit 55% (thus making the buy backs less profitable). But if I COULD get 5 games a week where I could get 4-500 per, I would do in a heartbeat. That is 100-130K per year, I wll take that for doing little or nothing anyday. Anyone that tells you they WIN that much is full of shit, or is betting enough so that 100K means NOTHING to them.

Are there really any professional (sports) gamblers?

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