I read this on another site and am using it to try and give myself some sort of confidence booster (self esteem in NFL at an all-time low).Since 1983 Nfl fav's have covered at a 48% rate. This year 58%. The best year betting all fav's is 53%,including juice that is +5 units in 1993. Their have been 8 years since 1983 that the fav's have been over 50% after week 10 (53% overall win pct for those 8 years), those 8 years the fav's covered at a 46% rate the reminder of the year last (6-7weeks). Hopefully the better days are ahead for us mostly dog players.
Trying too.I Bet small enough %br that usually a loss here or there doesn't affect my moods. But this year (esp last 5 weeks) my patience has about ran thin,and so has my bankroll. Thank god their is a whole week between NFL, it gives me time to pump myself up to stay in the game and build my confidence back up.Fishhead said:
The problem is the books are nto doing what they used to do in the past.
Regression to themeanis a tricky subject in terms of sports betting. it DOESN'T always happen (all those great trend plays people love are an easy example to cite). But when you have a man made object (the line) deciding on whether or not a regression takes place, think it HAS to happen is flawed.
So if books continue to hang lines that are not even close to being close (as opposed to not even being close) and with a much larger sepration between the haves and have nots in the NFL, I don't see any reason why the favorites will not continue to cover.
I think a lot of the teams have to be at least DD to even have a shot at NOT covering, and even then that might not be enough. So the books can either make every favorite -14, and take all dog action (due to theline and people betting the "due" factor) and hope that the dogs don't all come in, or they can do what they are doing, inching thelines up here and there. They HAVE raised lines on faves the past few weeks, going from the 6/7 to the 9/10 range, and the dogs still can't keep it close.
In some of those games even +14 wouldn't even have been enough.
Bottomline is the NFL is matching, or more correctly MIS matching teams right now. Too maky 7-2 teams playing too many 2-7 teams. Hard to make a mediocre team that happens to be 6-3 a 10 point fav over a team that has had "bad luck" and is 2-6, but still might be bad enough to desrve that line.
Books need action, so they throw up lines that will get some sort of action. They can't help it if the teams suck too bad to even cover a line that the hedged up 3-4 points.
That is why so many "sharps" have gotten buried. They recognize that any other year those extra few points make the game a "no brainer", unfortunately the league incongruity this year is so huge that those extra few points are far less valuable than on could even dream of.
SO don't be holding your breath until some teams show some life. In other words, don't let a juicy line sway you into betting one of those shitty dogs until the team itself can prove they can cover any number they are given.
Regression to themeanis a tricky subject in terms of sports betting. it DOESN'T always happen (all those great trend plays people love are an easy example to cite). But when you have a man made object (the line) deciding on whether or not a regression takes place, think it HAS to happen is flawed.
So if books continue to hang lines that are not even close to being close (as opposed to not even being close) and with a much larger sepration between the haves and have nots in the NFL, I don't see any reason why the favorites will not continue to cover.
I think a lot of the teams have to be at least DD to even have a shot at NOT covering, and even then that might not be enough. So the books can either make every favorite -14, and take all dog action (due to theline and people betting the "due" factor) and hope that the dogs don't all come in, or they can do what they are doing, inching thelines up here and there. They HAVE raised lines on faves the past few weeks, going from the 6/7 to the 9/10 range, and the dogs still can't keep it close.
In some of those games even +14 wouldn't even have been enough.
Bottomline is the NFL is matching, or more correctly MIS matching teams right now. Too maky 7-2 teams playing too many 2-7 teams. Hard to make a mediocre team that happens to be 6-3 a 10 point fav over a team that has had "bad luck" and is 2-6, but still might be bad enough to desrve that line.
Books need action, so they throw up lines that will get some sort of action. They can't help it if the teams suck too bad to even cover a line that the hedged up 3-4 points.
That is why so many "sharps" have gotten buried. They recognize that any other year those extra few points make the game a "no brainer", unfortunately the league incongruity this year is so huge that those extra few points are far less valuable than on could even dream of.
SO don't be holding your breath until some teams show some life. In other words, don't let a juicy line sway you into betting one of those shitty dogs until the team itself can prove they can cover any number they are given.
Betting dogs the rest of the way is betting on "due".
No quicker way to go broke than betting on "due", in my opinion.
Tread lightly. The entire NFL season could see favorites hit an all time new mark ATS.
And there is no telling for sure, but in your opening statement, you said NFL favorites are 48% ATS since 1983. Perhaps the favorites move the 23 year record to 50% with a 58% 2005 season????
You never know.
I see what you are saying by going with dogs the rest of the season. You are probably right that the favorites will fall back to the 47%-53% range for the season by the time the season ends. It does make sense.
Later,
Books Worst Enemy
No quicker way to go broke than betting on "due", in my opinion.
Tread lightly. The entire NFL season could see favorites hit an all time new mark ATS.
And there is no telling for sure, but in your opening statement, you said NFL favorites are 48% ATS since 1983. Perhaps the favorites move the 23 year record to 50% with a 58% 2005 season????
You never know.
I see what you are saying by going with dogs the rest of the season. You are probably right that the favorites will fall back to the 47%-53% range for the season by the time the season ends. It does make sense.
Later,
Books Worst Enemy
We really don't know what's going to happen. Just because something happened before, doesn't mean it's going to happen this year. The lines don't have memories, just like the roulette ball doesn't have a memory. Sure, the linesmakers can adjust, but maybe in the short term (rest of this year?) fav's will STILL beat the line! I have some dogs this week in NFL and I know that 58% can't hold up FOREVER. But, I really have no clue how long it will hold up. Maybe 4 more weeks, maybe the rest of the season, maybe midway through next season. If we knew the answer to when fav's would stop covering at this rate, we'd be able to make some money by betting all fav's up to that point.
What I'm saying is, yes...linesmakers can adjust and that's why fav's covered less than 50% during those 8 years you are talking about, but who knows.....there is a first time for everything. At the beginning of the season, if someone had told me that fav's would cover at 58% all season long, I'd say "wow, that's crazy", but since we're more than 1/2 way through and they're already at that number, it wouldn't be totally out of the question.
What I'm saying is, yes...linesmakers can adjust and that's why fav's covered less than 50% during those 8 years you are talking about, but who knows.....there is a first time for everything. At the beginning of the season, if someone had told me that fav's would cover at 58% all season long, I'd say "wow, that's crazy", but since we're more than 1/2 way through and they're already at that number, it wouldn't be totally out of the question.
The biggest mistake I see alot of gamblers make is this " I have to follow this theory or that theory" What !!!! The week before last I played my card and I didn't even realize until Sunday night that I even played mostly favorites. I can't let that cloud my judgement whether I'm betting a dog or not. Look for the value, not some theory or a week that is due.Get off of this Dog week or Favorite week and look at each game on a individual basis
soemthing different this year. maybe newer younger coaches? Games are not ending like they used to, starters on teams leading are in longer, no backdoor underdogs scoring, teams are not giving those free prevent Defenses like they used to.....Coaches are playing to win bigger. less talent at QB to generate the back door underdog covers, and the favorites havve more talent this year it seems...I dont see this trend changing until the lines on the favorites get as high as they should be.
