Do you bet more per play on different sports. For example my average NFL bet is $200-400 dollars while all other plays (NBA,CBB,CFB,MLB) are all around $100 ($10,000 br). Thinking the NFL was my strong suit this year I decided to try to make more because their our less overall plays, by betting a considerable amount more per play in that sport and I have paid dearly. I am ahead in NBA(this year and last) and around even in both college sports but the money I have lost in NFL so far this year has ruined a ok year betting. I bet from the same bankroll on all sports and it has taken quite a big bite out of it within the last 5 weeks.Though I hate changing in midstream I have decided to not put this much pressure on my NFL plays,lower my bets to $100-200 range and take the loss this year, knowing things will probably even back out. Is the way to do this bet from the same bankroll? Bet more in sports you feel you have a bigger edge? If you play everyday (3-4 sports throught year) is it smarter to play all plays close to the same amount. This has been a huge wakeup call this past month, I guess I overestimated my edge and now I am trying to salvage a below average year, at best. Any opionions are appreciated
it depends on how long you've been at it in this business...
if you've been doing this for, say, 10+ years...and you know FOR CERTAIN that your long-term win % is higher in the NFL than anything else you handicap...
then i wouldn't see much harm in risking more on your NFL plays....
....but i would only recommend that if you had a SUBSTANTIALLY greater win % on those NFL plays....
if you were hitting the equivelent of, say 54 or 55% on your NBA plays....
...but you were hitting 58-60% on your NFL plays....then i think it would make sense to risk a little more on your NFL plays. but even so, i still wouldn't risk 2x as much though, as you were doing. maybe 1.5 units on your NFL plays and 1 unit on everything else.
but notice how i said "SUBSTANTIALLY" greater win pct...if there's ony a 1 or even 2% difference, say, 54% on the NBA and 56% in NFL, then i wouldn't bet different amounts. just keep them all the same.
but that's all in theory....
it's so easy for us (i did the same thing when i was starting out) to just look back at a couple hundred plays, like 2 full NFL or NBA seasons for example, and see that we hit, say, 55% and think, "great, i have a 55% long-term win pct!"
WRONG.......even with a 1,000 plays, there's a margin for error of +/- 3% on an ACTUAL long-term win pct. of 55%...
example: if you've been hitting 55% over years and years of betting...over the course of your next 1,000 plays you could hit anywhere from 52 to 58% (+/- 3%)
until you have at least a few thousand plays under your belt of ALL the sports you bet, i would keep your betting units the same...
if your bankroll is $10,000, then i would risk $100 on all your plays...
if you've been doing this for, say, 10+ years...and you know FOR CERTAIN that your long-term win % is higher in the NFL than anything else you handicap...
then i wouldn't see much harm in risking more on your NFL plays....
....but i would only recommend that if you had a SUBSTANTIALLY greater win % on those NFL plays....
if you were hitting the equivelent of, say 54 or 55% on your NBA plays....
...but you were hitting 58-60% on your NFL plays....then i think it would make sense to risk a little more on your NFL plays. but even so, i still wouldn't risk 2x as much though, as you were doing. maybe 1.5 units on your NFL plays and 1 unit on everything else.
but notice how i said "SUBSTANTIALLY" greater win pct...if there's ony a 1 or even 2% difference, say, 54% on the NBA and 56% in NFL, then i wouldn't bet different amounts. just keep them all the same.
but that's all in theory....
it's so easy for us (i did the same thing when i was starting out) to just look back at a couple hundred plays, like 2 full NFL or NBA seasons for example, and see that we hit, say, 55% and think, "great, i have a 55% long-term win pct!"
WRONG.......even with a 1,000 plays, there's a margin for error of +/- 3% on an ACTUAL long-term win pct. of 55%...
example: if you've been hitting 55% over years and years of betting...over the course of your next 1,000 plays you could hit anywhere from 52 to 58% (+/- 3%)
until you have at least a few thousand plays under your belt of ALL the sports you bet, i would keep your betting units the same...
if your bankroll is $10,000, then i would risk $100 on all your plays...
I bet on all different sport and keep the bets about the same (stake on dog, to win on fav) and tweak it up or down a little depending on strength of the play and sport (bet more on college football than on soccer because I have access to more info). There are too many headaches varying bets too much so I just stick within a certain range so a big bet is maybe 30% bigger than a small bet. Most of my plays turn out to be scalps so I usually bet a lot and scalp back to what I want to risk, thus giving me an even better price than what I already perceive as good value. Smart move cutting back on your bets and not chasing, that's the shit you need to be able to do.
been at it over 8 years and I bet it all...NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA, Tennis and all props and most of the time my bets are the same...sometimes will slip and bet more because its the last game or something stupid and find that I usually will lose those bets
