Everyone knows the frequency of 3 in NFL but does anyone know how much more likely a 3 pt fav. is to win by exactly 3 than a random fav, say -7. Can't forget that when we see how common 3 is that's the dog or fav. winning by 3.
I agree with the guys that say -3+110 is technically better unless the total is low but I might give up a few cents and lay -2.5-115 to be able to cash the ticket on 3, especially if it's a TV game.
I agree with the guys that say -3+110 is technically better unless the total is low but I might give up a few cents and lay -2.5-115 to be able to cash the ticket on 3, especially if it's a TV game.
Not even close you take the -3 for +110. WORST you will do it tie.
Even if it was from -3 -115 to 3.5 +110, it is still mathematically better to lay the 3.5 +110.
Totals have NOTHING to do with it, I do not know why people use that as an excuse. It is not correlary in the least. You ALWAYS take the higher odds, ESPECIALLY when the worst you will do it push.
The three is worth between 10-14 cents (depending on what closing numberssite you use) from a LOSING stand point. Meaning by OFF 3 to either 2.5 or 3.5.
It is worth about 5-7 cents (half) buying to a PUSH from 2.5 and 3.5 to 3. Which no one does, but that is about what it is worth.
Even if it was from -3 -115 to 3.5 +110, it is still mathematically better to lay the 3.5 +110.
Totals have NOTHING to do with it, I do not know why people use that as an excuse. It is not correlary in the least. You ALWAYS take the higher odds, ESPECIALLY when the worst you will do it push.
The three is worth between 10-14 cents (depending on what closing numberssite you use) from a LOSING stand point. Meaning by OFF 3 to either 2.5 or 3.5.
It is worth about 5-7 cents (half) buying to a PUSH from 2.5 and 3.5 to 3. Which no one does, but that is about what it is worth.
wantitall4moi said:
It's a bit early for April Fool's isn't it?
Totals have a significant impact on the value of the "3", as well as the value of a 6-point teaser. In a typical game, there will be about 7 3/4 scores. 2/5 of those will be field goals. If you have fewer scores, more games will be decided by exactly 3 (or affected by a 6-point tease).
A 3-point favorite will win by exactly 3 a little over 10.5%. That number goes up to about 12% for totals under 37, and down to about 9% for totals above 48.
"Quick and dirty" Rule of thumb for the value of a half-point: multiply the push % by 2.2. If it hits 10.5%, it is worth about 23 cents (assuming the ML price was close to -110).
How much is it worth, to go from +2.5 to +3.5? Assume +2.5 +100 is the fair no-vig line, which will win 50% of the time. Assume +3.5 will win 60.5%.
The fair no-vig price then is figured using
(0.605)+(0.395)x=0
x=-605/395 = -153.
So in that example, moving from 2.5 to 3.5 was worth 53 cents.
I have to go out. I will posts the results including totals when I get back. i will do it total for total, and then you can see that is has absolutely no correlation.
Daringly, it all depends on what lines you are using. I wil in fact cite the database that I have that is WORSt case scenarion in regards to MY argument. In other words, I will use the numbers that would best go to prove YOU are right. And STILL they won't be close.
I could also use a couple other databases that have more favorable numbers to MY argument, and then it REALLY shows that it is meaningless.
These arguments are all theory anyways, because for the most part to "PROVE" it you HAVE to use flawed data. Flawed as in using games that closed -3 and landed on -3. For almost HALF those examples of a push, which is your "evidence" to say they hit 10.5 or 8.4 or 9.6 percent of the time, another number was available elsewhere or at a different time. So when you say there is X amount of this happening and that happening, you are using flawed results, just like I am. But since it is the only way we have to determine probability we have to use it.
Like I said I have to go out, but I will throw up my numbers for every total(which again will be a judgement call since they will be varied as well) but we can get a range to work with.
I have been arguing this debate for 10 years, trust me I have the result down, and almost memorized by now.
The 3 is the most vastly overrated angle/number there is in sportsbetting. Simply because people have been programmed to believe it.
Daringly, it all depends on what lines you are using. I wil in fact cite the database that I have that is WORSt case scenarion in regards to MY argument. In other words, I will use the numbers that would best go to prove YOU are right. And STILL they won't be close.
I could also use a couple other databases that have more favorable numbers to MY argument, and then it REALLY shows that it is meaningless.
These arguments are all theory anyways, because for the most part to "PROVE" it you HAVE to use flawed data. Flawed as in using games that closed -3 and landed on -3. For almost HALF those examples of a push, which is your "evidence" to say they hit 10.5 or 8.4 or 9.6 percent of the time, another number was available elsewhere or at a different time. So when you say there is X amount of this happening and that happening, you are using flawed results, just like I am. But since it is the only way we have to determine probability we have to use it.
Like I said I have to go out, but I will throw up my numbers for every total(which again will be a judgement call since they will be varied as well) but we can get a range to work with.
I have been arguing this debate for 10 years, trust me I have the result down, and almost memorized by now.
The 3 is the most vastly overrated angle/number there is in sportsbetting. Simply because people have been programmed to believe it.
Wantitall -
maybe we have a wagering opportunity here. Assume that a game line closes at +3 (from -120 to +100) at Cris. I want to wager that the game will land on the "3". You want to wager that it won't. What odds will you give me? Assume it is for all the remainin NFL regular season games this year, at all totals.
maybe we have a wagering opportunity here. Assume that a game line closes at +3 (from -120 to +100) at Cris. I want to wager that the game will land on the "3". You want to wager that it won't. What odds will you give me? Assume it is for all the remainin NFL regular season games this year, at all totals.
I have time to do a couple quick ones...
line = -3 ATS OU SU query
283-257-65 (0.5) 280-311-14 (0.8) 371-234-0 (3.48) line = -3
line = -3 and margin =3 ATS OU SU query
0-0-65 (0.0) 25-40-0 (-0.2) 65-0-0 (3.00) line = -3 and margin =3
ATS OU SU query
58-67-13 (-0.5) 55-79-4 (-1.3) 77-61-0 (2.54) line = -3 and total <37
line = -3 and margin =3 and total <37 ATS OU SU query
0-0-13 (0.0) 5-8-0 (-2.4) 13-0-0 (3.00) line = -3 and margin =3 and total <37
line = -3 and total >37 ATS OU SU query
207-172-46 (0.9) 203-213-9 (1.3) 269-156-0 (3.88) line = -3 and total >37
line = -3 and margin = 3 and total >37 ATS OU SU query
0-0-46 (0.0) 17-29-0 (0.7) 46-0-0 (3.00) line = -3 and margin = 3 and total >37
So there you have MY numbers...
OVERALL 65/605 = 10.7%
UNDER 37 13/138 =9.4%
OVER 37 46/425 =10.8%
EQUALS 37 6/42= 14.3%
If anything the HIGHER the total the more likelihood of a push on 3. Obviously a total of exactly 37 is much higher.
But like I said, the more you break things down, the less relevant theyare. If you find 37.5 somewhere then you think you have a 3.5% less advantgae which isn't true. The only way it works is if you have the comparable source, and use that source on EVERY single stage of evaluation.
line = -3 ATS OU SU query
283-257-65 (0.5) 280-311-14 (0.8) 371-234-0 (3.48) line = -3
line = -3 and margin =3 ATS OU SU query
0-0-65 (0.0) 25-40-0 (-0.2) 65-0-0 (3.00) line = -3 and margin =3
ATS OU SU query
58-67-13 (-0.5) 55-79-4 (-1.3) 77-61-0 (2.54) line = -3 and total <37
line = -3 and margin =3 and total <37 ATS OU SU query
0-0-13 (0.0) 5-8-0 (-2.4) 13-0-0 (3.00) line = -3 and margin =3 and total <37
line = -3 and total >37 ATS OU SU query
207-172-46 (0.9) 203-213-9 (1.3) 269-156-0 (3.88) line = -3 and total >37
line = -3 and margin = 3 and total >37 ATS OU SU query
0-0-46 (0.0) 17-29-0 (0.7) 46-0-0 (3.00) line = -3 and margin = 3 and total >37
So there you have MY numbers...
OVERALL 65/605 = 10.7%
UNDER 37 13/138 =9.4%
OVER 37 46/425 =10.8%
EQUALS 37 6/42= 14.3%
If anything the HIGHER the total the more likelihood of a push on 3. Obviously a total of exactly 37 is much higher.
But like I said, the more you break things down, the less relevant theyare. If you find 37.5 somewhere then you think you have a 3.5% less advantgae which isn't true. The only way it works is if you have the comparable source, and use that source on EVERY single stage of evaluation.
DAWOOFDADDY said:
This is also my default answer, since I think NFL results are much closer to the line than NCAAF.
However 25 cents is a lot to pay and what I would really do is shop for -2.5 at better odds. Maybe that's not answering your question but with places like Mansion and Matchbook you can often find or even offer better odds.
Lastly I might play both lines, $115 @ -115 and $100 @+110 gives a combined vig of about -102. Personally I like this strategy. The only number that matters is the 3, where you win about a half bet which is the price for getting much better odds.
