Chalk month 2005

TTinCO

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• Nov 20, 2005

• #1

Does it continue today? I think so.

The good teams are getting better, and the bad teams are getting worse(or more accurately-more decimated by key injuries).

8 of 15 lines today are 7+, which seems to support my theory that the level of disparity is growing as the season moves on. The question remains, have the lines been inflated enough? I don't think so.

I'll venture a guess that the big favs (7 pts +) come out in the black (again) today.

 

Omni

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• Nov 20, 2005

• #2

I'm glad we're finaly seeing some double digits. God knows teams like the Jets deserve them.

 

TTinCO

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• Nov 20, 2005

• #3

If the Jets can put 14 on the board (BIG if), this over should be a lock. The Bronco offense is a well oiled machine right now.

 

-Slim-

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• Nov 20, 2005

• #4

Jets D is not dead...14 pts for a halfway decent team is way too much. On the road or at home. There seems to be more room on the boat...

 

-Slim-

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• Nov 20, 2005

• #5

i cannot stress enough how lopsided the carolina game is

 

sublime

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• Nov 20, 2005

• #6

TTinCO said:

Does it continue today? I think so.

The good teams are getting better, and the bad teams are getting worse(or more accurately-more decimated by key injuries).

8 of 15 lines today are 7+, which seems to support my theory that the level of disparity is growing as the season moves on. The question remains, have the lines been inflated enough? I don't think so.

I'll venture a guess that the big favs (7 pts +) come out in the black (again) today.

Click to expand...

I think you are 100% wrong.

These are collectively the most inflated lines in recent memory.

 

ClipJoint

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• Nov 20, 2005

• #7

sublime said:

I think you are 100% wrong.

These are collectively the most inflated lines in recent memory.

Click to expand...

 

TTinCO

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• Nov 27, 2005

• #8

Well, they better keep inflating then.

 

Omni

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• Nov 27, 2005

• #9

It's a mix of worse teams, QB's that don't belong in the NFL anymore, and some good old fashioned bad luck coinflip beats that are almost all going the favorites way.

 

TTinCO

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• Nov 27, 2005

• #10

Omni, that's what I'm saying. For one reason or another, there are some very bad teams at this point in the NFL season and the lines are not reflecting just exactly how bad they really are.

 

Omni

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• Nov 27, 2005

• #11

The Jets and their QB troubles account for a few of the dog losses, just can't get anyone decent back there. The Texans getting blown out with regularity (but covering against Indy twice, go figure) adds to the "bad teams" factor. And after being spotted these favorite wins/covers (among a few othes I'm leaving out) you have the rest of the games where the favs are just covering at a higher rate by coinflip. They are getting lots of late breaks to add in with ones who are genuinly covering because they are under rated.. Mix it all together at the same time and you get a year like the one we've had so far.

I do strongly believe that this will not continue. And of course even if we adjust the numbers next week and totally inflate all the favorites to the point where the dogs have a 60-40 chance of covering that does not preclude them from pulling another miracle week and still covering 75%, even though that would be unlikely given those odds.