Sharp players don't automatically take the dog play. It has been said on here many times that the sharp players are getting beat in the NFL this year because so many favorites are winning ATS. I say that the sharp players are able to tell that the favorites are winning and have adjusted their bets accordingly.
Absolutely agree. As far as I'm concerned, you either have a winning or a losing pick. You can bet whatever you want. The whole Dog/Fav thing is ridiculous as if you could say "Sharps bet only overs(or unders).". No they don't or at least there is no rule about it. The fact that more of the recreational's action is on favs does NOT mean that betting a fav is a square thing to do or betting a dog is always "sharp".
"So called" sharps. Squares will bet the fav no matter what the spread is. A sharp will take the points if the fav line gets inflated. This is not to say the sharp money is always right. Just ask Fezzik, as he is getting his head handed to him this year on Sunday. Refuses to change his ways. His NFL picks have been dreadful.
if you bet and the line moves in your favor is that necessarily a good thing ? or it means that your thinking like everyone else
next thing the book says you bet at a favorable price therefore you are taking advantage of them
whether you win or lose the game, as you have the opportunity to arb the other side if you so choose.
not sure about this whole thing - seems to me that if its your business and your being paid to do it - you take on all comers and do your job properly.
whether this means being a better price maker or having a larger base
i think this whole sharp/steam stuff is just an excuse to hide poor business practices.
imo
next thing the book says you bet at a favorable price therefore you are taking advantage of them
whether you win or lose the game, as you have the opportunity to arb the other side if you so choose.
not sure about this whole thing - seems to me that if its your business and your being paid to do it - you take on all comers and do your job properly.
whether this means being a better price maker or having a larger base
i think this whole sharp/steam stuff is just an excuse to hide poor business practices.
imo
Here is the way it IS......
A sharp over TIME can be using many DIFFERENT methods.
If somebody is successful, there is no reason to knock them or say what they are doing is not correct.................no matter how they derive at their winning ways.
Yes, defending myself(and possibly Fezziks).
I will continue to NEVER lay over -3 in the NFL.............and if I live another 20 years, think it will be to my advantage.
Understand, very well could have been SHARP enough to adjust to the current trend of FAVS like some some other very, very sharp players and made money.
However, for me personally, will stick to what has been proven highly profitable to me over the years and there is no doubt in my mind that staying disciplined will be profitable in the longrun.
Understand also, believe that many that have basically the same rules as I have in the NFL, may have at least reduced their NFL wagering in someway considering the current set of circumstances.............either by reducing the number of plays they make or the amount they wager.
A sharp over TIME can be using many DIFFERENT methods.
If somebody is successful, there is no reason to knock them or say what they are doing is not correct.................no matter how they derive at their winning ways.
Yes, defending myself(and possibly Fezziks).
I will continue to NEVER lay over -3 in the NFL.............and if I live another 20 years, think it will be to my advantage.
Understand, very well could have been SHARP enough to adjust to the current trend of FAVS like some some other very, very sharp players and made money.
However, for me personally, will stick to what has been proven highly profitable to me over the years and there is no doubt in my mind that staying disciplined will be profitable in the longrun.
Understand also, believe that many that have basically the same rules as I have in the NFL, may have at least reduced their NFL wagering in someway considering the current set of circumstances.............either by reducing the number of plays they make or the amount they wager.
What strikes me in all these threads is people looking for an easy way to make money, some even silly enough to believe they have found it. Like most things in life, its down to plain old hard work and long boring hours digging, thats why most Pro or semi-Pro gamblers are divorced or separated, simply no time for anything else.
That stereotype is somewhat true though. Anyone can have a good week or run but the long term winners MUST play much more dogs & unders than faves & overs. Most clean cut example of square/sharps is the totals in Hockey. In about 85% of these games the over is getting more action, yet the lines will most likely move to make the over even more attractive. This is mostly from media hyping up the high scoring NHL & the books making tempting lines at 6.5 and the public figuring if it's tied at 3 then I'm a guaranteed winner. The squares will remember when he has won only and personally forget when they lost & just consistently lose in the long run. When there's alot of offense there's alot of 2+ goal wins.....In the NFL if I like a favorite I'll buy it very early in the week, that way it gives me the flexibility to buy it back or let it play. If I let it play, I got it at its best line. Thus emphasizing the importance of a healthy bankroll amount. Good example was the Thanksgiving Broncos/Cowboys game. I bought the Broncos at pick em early & right before tipoff When it was Cowboys +3 I bought a have point to +3.5 & hit both sides.
zee said:
Man, do I agree with that. This is a post that is long overdue around here. I am worn out with the view that the "Public" is always wrong....no, they are not. They just don't know what they are doing....lol!
Also, The Dog Value is the play...sure, many times...not always.
Now, I do find concern when 'cappers' are all on a side....say, 6 or 7 to none or one....that does concern me, no matter if the play is dog or fav or public or not... Anywhoooo...great stuff. tulsa
Simon Noble of Pinnacle defined SHARP as:
The player who gets the best possible line.
Dogs vs favorites is irrelevant.
If the line started at -3 and ended at -5, the sharp will have the -3. If he doesn't get the -3, he won't play the game at all.
If the line started at +3 and ended at +5, the sharp will have the +5.
If anyone waited and waited and took KC -4 yesterday, he was a square. The sharp would have had it at -3. In fact, Simon Noble's article said that the sharps were selling points to KC -3.5 when KC was -3. I am just guessing but they might have sold back Pats to +3.5 and made a 10 cent scalp too.
The player who gets the best possible line.
Dogs vs favorites is irrelevant.
If the line started at -3 and ended at -5, the sharp will have the -3. If he doesn't get the -3, he won't play the game at all.
If the line started at +3 and ended at +5, the sharp will have the +5.
If anyone waited and waited and took KC -4 yesterday, he was a square. The sharp would have had it at -3. In fact, Simon Noble's article said that the sharps were selling points to KC -3.5 when KC was -3. I am just guessing but they might have sold back Pats to +3.5 and made a 10 cent scalp too.
Know a few "real sharp" players and they DONT play the NFL only a few times per year for anything that really matters. They usually have to have something that they think has "value" to it.
Yes HOME DOGS in the NFL have been very good to me until this year. Several BAD beats yesterday and now i am back to about even in the TUFF NFL. Good time to quit that NFL anyway as the bowl season in the footsies and the cbb are more important, to me anyway. JMHO
Yes HOME DOGS in the NFL have been very good to me until this year. Several BAD beats yesterday and now i am back to about even in the TUFF NFL. Good time to quit that NFL anyway as the bowl season in the footsies and the cbb are more important, to me anyway. JMHO
