I'm on the last leg of a nice teaser in which I have a shot to win 3k w/ Indy at -2.5. I was wondering everyone's thoughts on what I should do? Should I toss some on the steelers spread and try to middle, toss a smaller amount on the steelers ML since -2.5 is pretty much a win, or should I go on a limb and try a teaser the other way w/ something (havent looked yet) for a better shot at a middle? Any help would be appreciated!
I'm with DougJ
Letting it ride is no hedge. Pitt +8 is a perfectly safe hedge, but I would go with Pitt ML. You're asking for a hedge, so I'm addressing that. Letting it ride is a very fine direction to go as well, depending on your willingness to take the risk.
If you do Pitt ML, you could lose both and so is not a perfectly safe hedge. In all likelihood, Indianapolis will not win by one or two, if they win. It is a safe hedge and the payout is very nice if you take Pitt ML, so you don't have to put nearly as much on Pitt ML as you would to get the same payout on Pitt +8.
On the other hand, said the one-handed economist, you could win BOTH Pitt +8 and Indy -2.5. That would be good for you and has a very good chance of occurring; by my guess more than a 25% chance. And, again, it is a perfectly safe hedge. You will win at least one of those two choices with 100% certainty.
Still, I would hedge with Pitt ML. BUT, don't be mad at me if Indy wins by one or two....just saying it's not likely and it's relatively safe to do so. Just MHO. tulsa
Letting it ride is no hedge. Pitt +8 is a perfectly safe hedge, but I would go with Pitt ML. You're asking for a hedge, so I'm addressing that. Letting it ride is a very fine direction to go as well, depending on your willingness to take the risk.
If you do Pitt ML, you could lose both and so is not a perfectly safe hedge. In all likelihood, Indianapolis will not win by one or two, if they win. It is a safe hedge and the payout is very nice if you take Pitt ML, so you don't have to put nearly as much on Pitt ML as you would to get the same payout on Pitt +8.
On the other hand, said the one-handed economist, you could win BOTH Pitt +8 and Indy -2.5. That would be good for you and has a very good chance of occurring; by my guess more than a 25% chance. And, again, it is a perfectly safe hedge. You will win at least one of those two choices with 100% certainty.
Still, I would hedge with Pitt ML. BUT, don't be mad at me if Indy wins by one or two....just saying it's not likely and it's relatively safe to do so. Just MHO. tulsa
My NFL room reply:
"Frankly I think you have a great number with Indy-2.5. Can't see them losing at home and what are they likely to win by? At least 3.
Would never buy back more than half and would think of playing Steelers in play (which should be available at Pinny) when you might get Steelers +13.5/+14.5 if Indy goes ahead 7-0."
Also you might want to cover your stake for a no loss position pre-game, then watching you get a feel for the game and have half time as well as in play to lay off your bet.
GL, whatever you do!
"Frankly I think you have a great number with Indy-2.5. Can't see them losing at home and what are they likely to win by? At least 3.
Would never buy back more than half and would think of playing Steelers in play (which should be available at Pinny) when you might get Steelers +13.5/+14.5 if Indy goes ahead 7-0."
Also you might want to cover your stake for a no loss position pre-game, then watching you get a feel for the game and have half time as well as in play to lay off your bet.
GL, whatever you do!
I am in a similar situation, although I am at -2 laying 520/400. I also have Indy +4 in a 13pt 4 teamer laying 260/200. I am taking Pitt m/l for $100 @ +300, and Pitt to win game by 1 to 6 points @ 6 to 1 for 20 bucks. I will also take Pitt +8 for $200. I am already up for the week so I want to keep most of it. If Indy blows them out I am a dummy. If Pitt blows them out I will only be out a few hundred so I will only be a semi dummy. If it middles...well I'm sure you all know how great that feels.... If I was down for the week, I must admit I prob. would let it roll. Not smart...but never said I was.
Agreed. Never understood why people are so quick to hedge the final game of a parlay or teaser. If you're THAT worried about the final game, it shouldn't be part of your wager to begin with.ensign_lee said:
Obviously, there are exceptions. If the line moved during the week, you might be able to take advantage of the final game. Or maybe you're not sure about injuries, weather conditions, etc.
