I have been getting absolutely killed in CBB by my big unit plays. I have a good overall record, but w/ my big unit plays losing, I'm down pretty large in units. For example tonight my big plays were Creighton and SDSU, both lost, my small plays were duke, maryland, Pacific, and Oregon all won, but I still lost 4 units tonight. My question is should I go to playing every game the same? Does anyone do this? Have success,etc? Any replies are welcome. Any methods or other money mgt advice also welcome.
I do not subscribe to the bet the same amount strategy. Some plays are worth more than other plays.
If you are losing your big plays and winning your small plays, you need to change your formula for determining a big play vs small play. Cut back on the big plays. Maybe bet slightly more than a normal play.
If you are losing your big plays and winning your small plays, you need to change your formula for determining a big play vs small play. Cut back on the big plays. Maybe bet slightly more than a normal play.
why are you playing more on certain plays?
it looks like you are betting 4 times as much on your "better" plays. That is too much. Are they really 4 times as good as your small plays? Unless you are sure they are, you can do more harm than good overbetting them.
I would reccommend sticking to 1% of bankroll for all your plays. If there is a play you really like AND you can find an off number (meaning if it is +6 virtually everywhere but you can find +6.5 at one of your books), then maybe bump it up to 2%
Actually, probably better to play 2% and 3%
but the bottom line is don't bet 4X as much on one play as another
it looks like you are betting 4 times as much on your "better" plays. That is too much. Are they really 4 times as good as your small plays? Unless you are sure they are, you can do more harm than good overbetting them.
I would reccommend sticking to 1% of bankroll for all your plays. If there is a play you really like AND you can find an off number (meaning if it is +6 virtually everywhere but you can find +6.5 at one of your books), then maybe bump it up to 2%
Actually, probably better to play 2% and 3%
but the bottom line is don't bet 4X as much on one play as another
first, i would recommend you keep all your bets the same size.........
give it some time, and the re-evaluate yourself after a season or two....
while chuck is right, IN THEORY, that stronger plays should merit a larger betting unit...
it is VERY, VERY EASY to screw this technique up BIG TIME....
so many people THINK that their, let's call them 65% plays (just to make things simple) are worthy of 3 betting units and their 55% plays are worthy of 1 betting unit...
okay, sounds simple....BUT....unless you have AT LEAST a couple hundred, preferably, a couple THOUSAND plays under your belt, you are NOT going know for sure if they really are "65%" and "55%" plays, respectively...
this is where most people go wrong....they THINK their plays are stronger but they don't have anywhere near enough historical evidence to prove this to be true...
the margins of error on even 1,000 plays are +/- 3%....just think about what they are at only 200 or 300 plays! don't risk it!
just keep your betting units the same until you are absolutely, positively sure that you have a certain expected win pct. on a certain type of play...
then you can confidently risk a little more on your stronger plays.
it may cost you some money in the short-term (since you might end up winning less money off your "strong" plays than you would have if you bet more on those)....
but it will more than likely save you money since you may very well not have the higher win probability that you think you have...
besides, isn't it better to play it safe at the beginning??? most gamblers learn the hard way, by NOT playing it safe....
hope this helps!
give it some time, and the re-evaluate yourself after a season or two....
while chuck is right, IN THEORY, that stronger plays should merit a larger betting unit...
it is VERY, VERY EASY to screw this technique up BIG TIME....
so many people THINK that their, let's call them 65% plays (just to make things simple) are worthy of 3 betting units and their 55% plays are worthy of 1 betting unit...
okay, sounds simple....BUT....unless you have AT LEAST a couple hundred, preferably, a couple THOUSAND plays under your belt, you are NOT going know for sure if they really are "65%" and "55%" plays, respectively...
this is where most people go wrong....they THINK their plays are stronger but they don't have anywhere near enough historical evidence to prove this to be true...
the margins of error on even 1,000 plays are +/- 3%....just think about what they are at only 200 or 300 plays! don't risk it!
just keep your betting units the same until you are absolutely, positively sure that you have a certain expected win pct. on a certain type of play...
then you can confidently risk a little more on your stronger plays.
it may cost you some money in the short-term (since you might end up winning less money off your "strong" plays than you would have if you bet more on those)....
but it will more than likely save you money since you may very well not have the higher win probability that you think you have...
besides, isn't it better to play it safe at the beginning??? most gamblers learn the hard way, by NOT playing it safe....
hope this helps!
thanks for the info guys. This helps a lot. My NFL and college foots big plays have been really successful, but the CBB is what is killing me. I went 4-2 tonight and was down 4 units. To straighten something out. I usually rank plays from 1-5. I saw the SDSU and Creighton plays as 5 unit plays and because I had two 5 unit plays going, I didnt want to overdo it in one night, so i set the others at one unit. Turns out that was a big mistake!!
I usually do my CBB evaluation on the overnight lines and on my large plays I have been on the right side of the early line movement around 80 percent of the time, but they just arent hitting. I dont know if that's saying much, but I would be interested in hearing what others do in their evaluation process or any books on money mgt. and evaluation, etc.
I believe in keeping your play size the same for each play. If it worth playing, then it's worth playing the same as any other play. If it's not worth playing then it's not a good play for any amount.
If you can grow your cash roll with same size plays then you can at some point increase your size of play. I would do that incrementally in a step wise manner rather than via as a % of bankroll, continuously changing. I used to use 1, 2, 3 unit plays. No more. My 1 unit was 1.5% of BRoll, my 2 was of course 3% of BRoll and my 3 unit play was 5% of BR....if you are more conservative you could make that 4.5% or 4% of BR, but I do not believe you would go wrong with those definitions of units.
Again, though, my plays are all approx. 3% plays now, but a fixed amount that I don't vary with my BR per day or week. Once I have achieved a larger (sometimes smaller) BR I re-set back to 3% of BR (no set time...usually just a restructuring point when my roll has grown enough to warrant larger money or I've been hit hard enough that my plays warrant losing less money on them until I get on track again.)
Everyone needs to have careful money management, but what works for one may not be another's best method. You do what you believe you should do and be willing to learn. My honest opinion is that 1,2,3 units as I described is great but I found I am better served with a fixed play amount that I adjust occassionally to approx. 3% of bankroll. Good luck. tulsa
If you can grow your cash roll with same size plays then you can at some point increase your size of play. I would do that incrementally in a step wise manner rather than via as a % of bankroll, continuously changing. I used to use 1, 2, 3 unit plays. No more. My 1 unit was 1.5% of BRoll, my 2 was of course 3% of BRoll and my 3 unit play was 5% of BR....if you are more conservative you could make that 4.5% or 4% of BR, but I do not believe you would go wrong with those definitions of units.
Again, though, my plays are all approx. 3% plays now, but a fixed amount that I don't vary with my BR per day or week. Once I have achieved a larger (sometimes smaller) BR I re-set back to 3% of BR (no set time...usually just a restructuring point when my roll has grown enough to warrant larger money or I've been hit hard enough that my plays warrant losing less money on them until I get on track again.)
Everyone needs to have careful money management, but what works for one may not be another's best method. You do what you believe you should do and be willing to learn. My honest opinion is that 1,2,3 units as I described is great but I found I am better served with a fixed play amount that I adjust occassionally to approx. 3% of bankroll. Good luck. tulsa
My recommendation depends on the extent of your experience in this business. If you are realitively new to this endeavor, I would suggest that you either use a flat dollar amount for each wager, or if you have established a specific bankroll, use a percentage of that bankroll for each play. I would suggest starting conservatively at 1% of your bankroll for each play.
By the results you have stated, it indicates that you have yet to achieve successful ability to distinguish between strength of plays. This comes with experience but in many cases is never achieved. It is better to err on the side of caution, so consider flat betting either in dollars or percentage of bankroll until you get a feel and establish criteria for what type of play constitutes a stronger play. Give yourself time. This is not achieved overnight.
By the results you have stated, it indicates that you have yet to achieve successful ability to distinguish between strength of plays. This comes with experience but in many cases is never achieved. It is better to err on the side of caution, so consider flat betting either in dollars or percentage of bankroll until you get a feel and establish criteria for what type of play constitutes a stronger play. Give yourself time. This is not achieved overnight.
Bombay, I agree with Ted and some of the others, at this point in your career the best thing is probably flat betting like they suggest. I know some pros who still do it, 1% a play and never more than 8% total in action in any one day. Most of us newer players need to do one thing before we can do anything else ~~> protect the bankroll. The biggest and most common pitfall that keeps occurring before players can really get a lot of experience is going broke or losing the roll. With a conservative flat betting program you stick to it will not only keep you in the game it will help teach you discipline. I got nothing against Kelly, binomial distribution stuff and other assorted methods, no question there is merit to them, I just think a good many who try to assign their edge to plays are getting ahead of themselves.
PS - one thing I have noticed is that new players see all these units flying around in the pick sections and begin to think that is the way to go. Half those guys are not even betting, they use the Monopoly money units to show a "profit". They start out with 1-3 unit plays, after a month if they are 3-19 and down 32 units then they go to 10 units plays. Still down later then come 25, 50 and 100 unit plays. Not uncommon to track one of these clowns and find his ATS record 23-49 but somehow up over 50 units for the season. LOL, they just keep pressing these imaginary units until they get ahead. There are exceptions but just about all of those guys are either touts, attention hounds and/or both. One thing they all have in common is they are lost on what it takes to win longterm in this business.
PS - one thing I have noticed is that new players see all these units flying around in the pick sections and begin to think that is the way to go. Half those guys are not even betting, they use the Monopoly money units to show a "profit". They start out with 1-3 unit plays, after a month if they are 3-19 and down 32 units then they go to 10 units plays. Still down later then come 25, 50 and 100 unit plays. Not uncommon to track one of these clowns and find his ATS record 23-49 but somehow up over 50 units for the season. LOL, they just keep pressing these imaginary units until they get ahead. There are exceptions but just about all of those guys are either touts, attention hounds and/or both. One thing they all have in common is they are lost on what it takes to win longterm in this business.
I play 1, 2 or 3 units and had a total of six 3 unit plays in football this year - no one play is worth more than 3x any other game - most sucessful gamblers will only double or triple their standard bet - anyone who plays 1 unit and then plays 10 units on another game simply does not win over any extended period - this is fact and not open for debate.
Thanks to everyone who gave me GOOD Advice, which is pretty much everyone except for insider. I appreciate all the knowledge on this forum, which is why I come here as opposed to other forums. I hope to get better at this and w/ your help I think I can.
Insider, if you arent going to give me info to help me cap better, please dont post in my thread. I dont appreciate you being a smartarse!
Insiders said:
Insider, if you arent going to give me info to help me cap better, please dont post in my thread. I dont appreciate you being a smartarse!
You are probably overestimating your edge. If you think your 1 unit plays have a 53.5% edge at -110, a 5 unit play should be something like a 58% edge, and those sort of edges don't grow on trees. You're more likely to identify a couple of those a year than a couple a day.
bombay24 said:
kinda forgot about that thread, but that statement is interesting
If that is the case, you are doing something right, so it may not be that your "big plays" are not as good, they just not be hitting right now. But if you are beating the closing line consistently you will end up alright in ther long run
Still better off toning down your "units" as the posters above have mentioned
