Hockey Question ?

Doug · Dec 2, 2005

Does anyone have a database ( this season only preferable) that tells how often the fav wins by exactly one goal. I can get average price of about +300 on this as a prop, seems likely profitable with all the one "run" games in hockey.

heart222 · Dec 2, 2005

dont have the data base butr I remember reading that it was around `15-16% of the time. since were only 2 months into the season would suspect you could look at each team and take about 2-4 per team to look at stats. possibly statfox would have. regards heart222

heart222 · Dec 2, 2005

hi. sorry the 15% number is number of games that go to overtime. just checked schedule there have been 380 games this year. the stats are 203 over 1 goal 177 1 goal game. hope that helps. didnt look as to favorites or dog that would take to much time. heart222

Doug · Dec 2, 2005

heart222 said:
hi. sorry the 15% number is number of games that go to overtime. just checked schedule there have been 380 games this year. the stats are 203 over 1 goal 177 1 goal game. hope that helps. didnt look as to favorites or dog that would take to much time. heart222

I don't want to do it manually for time reasons, hoping someone can answer. Anything over 25% of the time with the fav by one puck is a winner. Book may be slow and not factoring in no ties. Only data for this year matters.

Doug · Dec 2, 2005

heart222 said:
hi. sorry the 15% number is number of games that go to overtime. just checked schedule there have been 380 games this year. the stats are 203 over 1 goal 177 1 goal game. hope that helps. didnt look as to favorites or dog that would take to much time. heart222

So 177 of 380 ( 46.5%) are 1 goal victories, seems likely the fav got the higher % of victories, if fav won 60% or better, it looks good enough to bet.

viking611 · Dec 2, 2005

DougJ...who won last night?? Home or Away??

Doug · Dec 2, 2005

23-18 Home, I'm sure you know, Ottawa losing 3-0 making the difference !

viking611 · Dec 2, 2005

Thanks.
didn't look at hockey scores today...donut does not help from Ottawa..very suprising.

Doug · Dec 2, 2005

viking611 said:
Thanks.
didn't look at hockey scores today...donut does not help from Ottawa..very suprising.

Ottawa was counted upon to at least win by one, not lose by 3, it would have made the away +2.5 -101 part a winner, at least ! Can't win them all !

Doug · Dec 2, 2005

Well, I decided to make some small bets on this, to feel it out. I took ( to win by one goal)

TB +300
Ott +330
Dall +300

Intuitevely it seems one of the 3 can manage to win by exactly one goal. I don't know if it's a good blind bet ( I did throw out Buff +300). The +300 ish just seems high to me.

TowtheLine · Dec 2, 2005

DougJ said:
Does anyone have a database ( this season only preferable) that tells how often the fav wins by exactly one goal. I can get average price of about +300 on this as a prop, seems likely profitable with all the one "run" games in hockey.

Out of 207 games recorded from Nov 1st to Dec 1st (probably missing two or three)

Favs by exactly 1 59
Favs by more than 1 65
Favs lost 83

So its about 28%. Hope this helps.

TowtheLine · Dec 2, 2005

DougJ said:
Well, I decided to make some small bets on this, to feel it out. I took ( to win by one goal)

TB +300
Ott +330
Dall +300

Intuitevely it seems one of the 3 can manage to win by exactly one goal. I don't know if it's a good blind bet ( I did throw out Buff +300). The +300 ish just seems high to me.

Based on the 28% quoted above that should give you approx. 63% chance of winning at least one of these.

Doug · Dec 2, 2005

TowtheLine said:
Out of 207 games recorded from Nov 1st to Dec 1st (probably missing two or three)

Favs by exactly 1 59
Favs by more than 1 65
Favs lost 83

So its about 28%. Hope this helps.

Yes, that's good ! I need to see if +300 will be a consistent line, then trim it to some subsets ( like games with a total of 6 or less, etc.). The +300 does seem high, maybe very good if filtered to use in specific spots ( maybe smaller fav's ?, instead of elite team vs. crap team). I think there is something there if it's going to remain close to +300 on any matchup. I'll be monitoring it.

billpapa · Dec 2, 2005

Since many are looking at the NHL stats for this year can someone tell me percent of games that end with totals of 5, 6, and 7? Also, the same info but for games lined at totals of 5, 5.5, 6, 6.5, and 7.

heart222 · Dec 2, 2005

doug seems as if there is more scoring in the east except for det. east might be a better play over all. just a thought but fla,wash,st.l and anaheim ugly on road in general would . just did a quick look st.l on road lost by more than 1 goal 6 out of 10 times and columbus lost 8 0ut of 14 by more than 1 goal. so thats 14 out of 24 thats 58% wiinners right? who got those props? heart222

Doug · Dec 2, 2005

heart222 said:
doug seems as if there is more scoring in the east except for det. east might be a better play over all. just a thought but fla,wash,st.l and anaheim ugly on road in general would . just did a quick look st.l on road lost by more than 1 goal 6 out of 10 times and columbus lost 8 0ut of 14 by more than 1 goal. so thats 14 out of 24 thats 58% wiinners right? who got those props? heart222

Heart : I don't want to post it ! Ask a mod for my e-mail, then I'll tell you !

Doug · Dec 2, 2005

billpapa said:
Since many are looking at the NHL stats for this year can someone tell me percent of games that end with totals of 5, 6, and 7? Also, the same info but for games lined at totals of 5, 5.5, 6, 6.5, and 7.

It's not definitive ( the line) some books may use 6, while others use 6.5, or 5.5., time is a factor as well.

Doug · Dec 2, 2005

heart222 said:
doug seems as if there is more scoring in the east except for det. east might be a better play over all. just a thought but fla,wash,st.l and anaheim ugly on road in general would . just did a quick look st.l on road lost by more than 1 goal 6 out of 10 times and columbus lost 8 0ut of 14 by more than 1 goal. so thats 14 out of 24 thats 58% wiinners right? who got those props? heart222

e-mail sent, Heart !

TowtheLine · Dec 2, 2005

billpapa said:
Since many are looking at the NHL stats for this year can someone tell me percent of games that end with totals of 5, 6, and 7? Also, the same info but for games lined at totals of 5, 5.5, 6, 6.5, and 7.

Same 207 games - I don't have over/under lines :103631605

TowtheLine · Dec 3, 2005

DougJ said:
Well, I decided to make some small bets on this, to feel it out. I took ( to win by one goal)

TB +300
Ott +330
Dall +300

Intuitevely it seems one of the 3 can manage to win by exactly one goal. I don't know if it's a good blind bet ( I did throw out Buff +300). The +300 ish just seems high to me.

Looks like two out of three. The ice gods were with you. 2W1L +5units/1unit bet.:money: