the only TD's late in games are the good teams taking the lead away from the bad teams. never a back door by a bad team. I think its a trend that might stay for some time as it sseems teams have figured out how to not give away points with a modified prevent D now. Plus the bad teams have bad QB's that cant get the job done against the prevent D.
Is there a vast right wing conspriracy?TTinCO said:
Well ... lets consider a couple of facts (or at least I think they are facts).
Where does the line for a NFL game come from? Does it come out of mid-air? aliens? someone ass? - no.
Traditionally, it was the Stardust on the Las Vegas strip who set the lines and everyone else eventually followed suit.
With the internet gambling, it seems to me that Pinnicale sets the line, and others follow them eventually.
What is interesting is that Pinnicale sets their lines for their competitors. This is the same as in Vegas with Stardust setting the line for their competitors.
The difference between Pinnicale vs. its competitors, and Stardust vs. its competitiors, is that Pinnicale is the big fish in that industry.
Suppose that Stardust set a bad line. Well everyone takes that bad line and eventually it may get a little better. But the casino book takes a hit, so I am told when a bad number is posted.
Suppose that Pinnicale sets a bad line. Well, would the books, all who follow Pinnicale's line when they set their line, wouldn't all books take a hit on a bad line too?
But in Pinnicale's case, they are the big fish, they might think they can withstand a couple of hits by delibrately setting bad lines, just to see the competiting internet bookie bleed.
For instance, didn't everyone think today that Jacksonville -2½ and Minnesota -2½ was rather low? Maybe that is what they are doing.
Setting the usual favourites like Indianapolis and San Diego and New England, the so called public teams the usual inflated lines - but then low ball the line for the favourite for the rest of the NFL games. In economics, this is called predatory pricing. Here I am only asking.
Do you believe in conspriarcies???
Polaris said:
this is the second time I have read this theory today
for it to be true, you would have to believe these lines operate in a total vacuum
none of the syndicates would realize the lines were off and pound them into shape? None of the guys who make their own lines, guys who crunch numbers, situational handicappers, etc, etc would happen to figure out that these lines are off and bet the shit out of them?
If the lines are out of whack, why did blindly playing all teasers across the board today hit 83% on a per-leg basis? IF the lines were way off you would expect the actual results to be far off the lines, not close to them.
