I know that nobody does this, but wouldn't it make things so much easier if we did? If we just had to decide if it was a play or not a play, and then make the bet at the best line. If there were no such things as "huge plays" that discourage us when we lose them, wouldn't it be easier to pick winners? Winning percentage means very little unless you are flat betting. You could go 60% for the year, yet lose money if you lose the bigger plays. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm starting to think that flat betting might be the best route to go. Just pick winners, baby, and if you lose a few, don't sweat it. Keep grinding.
Illini:
Although I vary my wagers, you are correct in saying that flat wagering simplifies the thought process. If you know how much you're going to bet on every game, then all you need to focus on is analyzing the game which is difficult enough. Flat betting by dollar amount or a fixed percentage of the bankroll is the best approach for the majority of gamblers. Varying your wagers takes significant experience to make it profitable.
Although I vary my wagers, you are correct in saying that flat wagering simplifies the thought process. If you know how much you're going to bet on every game, then all you need to focus on is analyzing the game which is difficult enough. Flat betting by dollar amount or a fixed percentage of the bankroll is the best approach for the majority of gamblers. Varying your wagers takes significant experience to make it profitable.
cklennon said:
Some people like to have action. I know of 5 dime a game bettors that like to throw $250-$500 a game on TV games just to make them more interesting.
Not recommending it...
I just wanted to point out that it works both ways. Varying your bet size pretty much erases the relevance of what percentage you are winning with your plays.
OldManTed is on the button here...
If you do not have the experience to raise the amount of you bets on the right games, then you MUST flat bet...MUST...
All rookie handicappers/bettors/gamblers, or for that matter, ALL people who have been betting less than 5 years (minimum) MUST flat bet or you can find yourself in trouble in a HURRY...
yes, it takes a lot longer to win significant money, BUT, it also takes longer to LOSE money and get buried in a hole...I've known a lot of people who have gotten buried, and I came close myself when I was much younger...
If you are new to the game, come up with an amount you are comfortable LOSING, and flat-bet that amount for a few years...
Get EXPERIENCE first...TRACK all your picks daily...Rank them 1-to-whatever...Gain Experience...
Cannot stress this enough...
If you do not have the experience to raise the amount of you bets on the right games, then you MUST flat bet...MUST...
All rookie handicappers/bettors/gamblers, or for that matter, ALL people who have been betting less than 5 years (minimum) MUST flat bet or you can find yourself in trouble in a HURRY...
yes, it takes a lot longer to win significant money, BUT, it also takes longer to LOSE money and get buried in a hole...I've known a lot of people who have gotten buried, and I came close myself when I was much younger...
If you are new to the game, come up with an amount you are comfortable LOSING, and flat-bet that amount for a few years...
Get EXPERIENCE first...TRACK all your picks daily...Rank them 1-to-whatever...Gain Experience...
Cannot stress this enough...
I believe in flat betting....
If it's good enough to play then play it for what it's worth. If it's not good enough to play at that level, don't play it.... But, being consistent and responsible with your money management is the most important thing, whatever you choose to do.
I like how OMTed put it....I can concentrate on the plays only. I don't have to fret about the money part. However, I'm guessing I don't have as much experience as he does. This works well for me, though, and I don't see myself ever not flat wagering no matter what happens. tulsa
If it's good enough to play then play it for what it's worth. If it's not good enough to play at that level, don't play it.... But, being consistent and responsible with your money management is the most important thing, whatever you choose to do.
I like how OMTed put it....I can concentrate on the plays only. I don't have to fret about the money part. However, I'm guessing I don't have as much experience as he does. This works well for me, though, and I don't see myself ever not flat wagering no matter what happens. tulsa
The first year I was wagering, I put $300 into an offshore account. In two weeks, I turned that into $600.
Feeling I could do no wrong, the next weekend (Thanksgiving) I put all of my money down on 12 teams, combining college and pros and put in straight wagers, parlays, etc.
Went 12-0. Hit a 6 team parlay, two 4 teamers and two 3 teamers.
Took 3K out and blew the rest by the end of bowl season.
It's hard to shake that "get rich quick" attitude when it comes to wagering on sports. Flat betting is the way to go....my stats from this year prove that. Do I get the "itch" to vary my bets now. Yes. Do I do it? Yes.
But not as much as before.
I'm only human, dammit.
Feeling I could do no wrong, the next weekend (Thanksgiving) I put all of my money down on 12 teams, combining college and pros and put in straight wagers, parlays, etc.
Went 12-0. Hit a 6 team parlay, two 4 teamers and two 3 teamers.
Took 3K out and blew the rest by the end of bowl season.
It's hard to shake that "get rich quick" attitude when it comes to wagering on sports. Flat betting is the way to go....my stats from this year prove that. Do I get the "itch" to vary my bets now. Yes. Do I do it? Yes.
But not as much as before.
I'm only human, dammit.
I vary it a lot, but also play for middles at times. What if you find a line that is way out of whack ( but not bad) , you play bigger ! How about a long-shot future ? You can also break your bet into parts. If you want MNF under 40, you might split it with game, 1st half, or even team totals under.Then you're bets should be smaller.
Props might not be playable for your standard bet ( especially at Wagerweb). Some books ( like SIA) may have a nice line on a total, but a small limit.
Nothing wrong with flat betting, but varying it can also be useful, if you can accurately determine which bets are better.
How about if play action points ? You don't bet a standard bet for each point, but you also want a total risk that's higher than one flat bet.
Props might not be playable for your standard bet ( especially at Wagerweb). Some books ( like SIA) may have a nice line on a total, but a small limit.
Nothing wrong with flat betting, but varying it can also be useful, if you can accurately determine which bets are better.
How about if play action points ? You don't bet a standard bet for each point, but you also want a total risk that's higher than one flat bet.
Tulsa said:
While it is true that using a constant, non-varying, percentage of a bankroll is not strictly by definition flat betting, it teaches you that first you must set aside a bankroll and then play, for instance, 1% of that bankroll on each play. It's strictly arithmetic as the bankroll goes up or down. No real thought is needed other then to decide on the percentage and determine the initial bankroll.
More often then not, gamblers do not establish bankrolls and enter the season with a flat dollar amount they wish to risk on each game. The problem with this is without the flat dollar amount tied to the bankroll in some manner prior to the season, a long losing streak can eat up a fair chunk even though it is a flat dollar amount. You have to do what is comfortable for you, but establishing a bankroll is extremely important.
I believe in this, flat bet everything except ONE game and make that a double. Yes i know you must win that game more than lose it do show +. But that works for me. Once i stopped playing the NFL it did anyway.
Bowl season in the college i will have only about 2-3 that are doubles the rest will be singles and i will NOT play every game this year, only the ones will value or number value. This year there will be LOTS of dogggies in my Xmas list.
Bowl season in the college i will have only about 2-3 that are doubles the rest will be singles and i will NOT play every game this year, only the ones will value or number value. This year there will be LOTS of dogggies in my Xmas list.
ive become much more selective and my win% has went thru the roof... about 7-10 plays per week..
mon-fri: 1 play daily (best daily)
sat: 1-3 plays
sun: 1-2 plays
flat bet and increase flat bet amount at 20% account flucuations... ive been wagering almost 20yrs and im more stress free now than at any point and my wagers have grown to 500 per game now...
less time is consumed and 0-1 isnt so bad... while 1-0 still gives that goood feeling..
if the first bet wins on sat or sun, that is usually all that i will play for the day, if you played anymore then you would have to sweep to better yourself.. as in 1-0 is better than 2-1...
at least this has really worked for me..
mon-fri: 1 play daily (best daily)
sat: 1-3 plays
sun: 1-2 plays
flat bet and increase flat bet amount at 20% account flucuations... ive been wagering almost 20yrs and im more stress free now than at any point and my wagers have grown to 500 per game now...
less time is consumed and 0-1 isnt so bad... while 1-0 still gives that goood feeling..
if the first bet wins on sat or sun, that is usually all that i will play for the day, if you played anymore then you would have to sweep to better yourself.. as in 1-0 is better than 2-1...
at least this has really worked for me..
I have been a flat bettor for many years and suggest it to most everyone. Truth is no play should ever really worth twice or more another wager unless you are working with lucrative "outlaw" type lines. Either you are going overboard with one wager or underboard with the other. If you do that you are overbetting your biggest wagers. Remember in theory, if you overbet your bankroll you do more harm than good even if you are an overall winning handicapper. Chances are it doesn't catch up to you for a long time, but when it does then it is a painful experience.
I think people who bet say 3 to 5 units, with most bets being 4 units and with a 5 unit bet being 2% or less of overall bankroll is acceptable, but it probably goes against the whole reason why the bettor would do that in the first place. Big unit schemes and people that bet some bets triple or more their small bets are just kidding themselves in most cases and do it more for action purposes.
For that reason I go with OMT and say just simplify your life and flat bet. I go further and say don't change from day to day, just say a certain amount is your bet size until your bankroll and ROI can justify a step up to another level. In other words don't say 2% and then re-adjust your plays tomorrow. Only when you are damn sure of your overall results and why one play is that much stronger than the other can you begin to venture into the realm of varying bet sizes.
I think people who bet say 3 to 5 units, with most bets being 4 units and with a 5 unit bet being 2% or less of overall bankroll is acceptable, but it probably goes against the whole reason why the bettor would do that in the first place. Big unit schemes and people that bet some bets triple or more their small bets are just kidding themselves in most cases and do it more for action purposes.
For that reason I go with OMT and say just simplify your life and flat bet. I go further and say don't change from day to day, just say a certain amount is your bet size until your bankroll and ROI can justify a step up to another level. In other words don't say 2% and then re-adjust your plays tomorrow. Only when you are damn sure of your overall results and why one play is that much stronger than the other can you begin to venture into the realm of varying bet sizes.
