This is the first time in recent memory that I could honestly see the BBWAA not electing anyone into the Hall. Here's the ballot:
Rick Aguilera, Albert Belle, Bert Blyleven, Will Clark, Dave Concepcion, Andre Dawson, Gary DiSarcina, Alex Fernandez, Gary Gaetti, Steve Garvey, Dwight Gooden, Rich Gossage, Ozzie Guillen, Orel Hershiser, Gregg Jefferies, Tommy John, Doug Jones, Don Mattingly, Willie McGee, Hal Morris, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Jim Rice, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, Alan Trammell, Walt Weiss, John Wetteland.
Not a very strong class. Some first timers include Dwight Gooden, Albert Belle, Will Clark, Rick Aguilera, Alex Fernandez, Doug Jones, John Wetteland, Gary DiSarcina, Gary Gaetti, Gregg Jefferies, Hal Morris and Walt Weiss.
This might be an excellent year to push some of those long overlooked guys in, Bert Blyleven and Jim Rice come to mind. Both those guys are Hall Of Fame material. Or we could see closers getting some real attention this year -- Sutter had like 66% of the vote last year-- or Goose Gossage, who was at like 55% of the 75% needed for enshrinement. If you consider those guys legitimate candidates, then Lee Smith should be in the mix too.
Honestly, I don't see any of the first ballot guys getting in. Dwight Gooden began his career as a shoe-in, but injuries and character issues (drug addiction, media problems) soured his career and his totals are far from HOF quality. Although his rookie season was one of t he most dominating pitching performaces in an entire season in the past 30 years.
Orel Hershiser's career totals don't quite add up either but he is a stronger candidate than Doc simply because he was clutch in the post season (an NLCS MVP, an ALCS MVP and a World Series MVP), and has that 59 consecutive inning scoreless streak, a record that still hasn't been broken. He does have the added bonus of baseball life after he retired, which is more likely to get him in down the road by the veteran's committe, and he was a strong personality for the game -- a genuine good guy. Too bad his career numbers fall short (97th in career wins, 58th in career strikeouts, 63rd in career games started, not in the top 100 in any other category of note). Will his post season dominance be enough to get him in? Probably not.
Will Clark is another "good guy" who won't quite measure up with the Hall's standards statistically. He doesn't pass the litmus for Bill James' grey or black ink tests -- black being a measure for the number of times leading the league in a stat category, grey being in the top 10 -- nor does he pass any of the Bill James sabermetrics HOF standards (baseballreference.com) which is a compilation of statistical standards of an average HOF candidate.
What Clark and Orel DO have going for them are strength of character and post season glory, which fall under the dreaded intagibles. While those thing are great to have, I think they really only help borderline candidates, which IMO both these players fall just short of.
Albert Belle is probably the strongest case and the most paradoxical. He passes the Kirby Puckett precident, which doesn't deminish a player's career because it was shortened by injury, but he has WAAAAY too many character issues. Where Puckett was considered a genuine good guy (recent accusations of adultery by his ex-wife and rape charges at a Minnesota restaurant have changed that perception a bit but it is important to note that he was aquitted on both) and good for the game, and very clutch in the postseason, Albert Belle was a misanthrope. He once threw a ball at a fan and was suspended, allegedly used a corked bat (the Omar Vizquel locker room heist incident), and was a notoriously hot-headed player. Personally, I think he should be in, his career numbers were AMAZING for the brief time he played -- and he passes the "was he considered a top player in his decade" standard employed by many voters -- he had at last 8 monster seasons, and 2 very good seasons in his 10 full seasons, but, again, I think the BBWAA will not get past his anger/character issues and off field problems.
Look at these individual seasons though:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/belleal01.shtml
It's important to note, that he and Jim Rice are very similar cases. Both were considered amongst the top hitters in the game during their tenure, and both had abbreviated careers with several monster seasons. I think if you set the precident for Rice to get in (which is more likely than Belle IMO), you can only deny Belle based on those character issues.
Andre Dawson deserves to be in Cooperstown, IMO, but his years as DH mean his career totals fall just short. Also, if you make him a HOFer, then you open up the floodgates for other borderline candidates like Dale Murphy, Joe Carter, etc. and the Hall suddenly becomes less mutually exclusive, more mutually inclusive and less elite -- thus no longer a compilation of the very best in the game, but a compliation of the best and the very good. That would diminsh the glory of HOF induction a bit.
Don Mattingly was never the same player after he pulled his back, but his Gold Glove defense has to make him a strong borderline candidate. The fact that the Yankees began winning World Series once he retired, hurts a bit, but the fact that he was a strong character, top performer at his position for an entire decade, had some very good seasons in the media spotlight of New York, and has been around the game after retirement might help push him in.
Bottom line: I think this is the year of the borderline candidate. I could see the BBWAA not choosing anyone or completely setting a new precident for players with shorter but illustrious careers (Belle, Rice, Mattingly). I really think it's time Bert Blyleven is voted in, his career numbers are very good, and the fact that he is not in yet is a shame. He was hurt by the fact that some voters see 300 wins as a benchmarkl. a total tha Bert would have easily eclipsed if he hadn't played on some really lousy teams. Like teh Cy Young award, it's time BBWAA start realizing that games won and lost are an indication of the team and not so much the individual pitcher. Time to right that wrong and enshrine Blyleven.
Precident for relievers will be interesting to see, because if Gossage and Sutter or Lee Smith get in, it will help future HOFs like Mariano Rivera gain first ballot enrollment down the road. Eckersley is in, but he was also a starter, and Smoltz is probably in down the road under the same criteria.
Finally, this would have been Pete Rose's last year of eligibility but commissioner Bud Selig would not lift the lifetime ban and, sadly, Rose's one character flaw -- betting on the game -- will keep him out of the Hall until the ban is lifted down the road and the veteran's committee can push him in (which I do see happening some day, just not anytime soon). It's a shame that the career leader in hits and one of the scrapiest players ever, will probably not be alive to see his bust in Cooperstown. He was everything to baseball for three decades that Johnny Damon has been the past few years.
Rick Aguilera, Albert Belle, Bert Blyleven, Will Clark, Dave Concepcion, Andre Dawson, Gary DiSarcina, Alex Fernandez, Gary Gaetti, Steve Garvey, Dwight Gooden, Rich Gossage, Ozzie Guillen, Orel Hershiser, Gregg Jefferies, Tommy John, Doug Jones, Don Mattingly, Willie McGee, Hal Morris, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Jim Rice, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, Alan Trammell, Walt Weiss, John Wetteland.
Not a very strong class. Some first timers include Dwight Gooden, Albert Belle, Will Clark, Rick Aguilera, Alex Fernandez, Doug Jones, John Wetteland, Gary DiSarcina, Gary Gaetti, Gregg Jefferies, Hal Morris and Walt Weiss.
This might be an excellent year to push some of those long overlooked guys in, Bert Blyleven and Jim Rice come to mind. Both those guys are Hall Of Fame material. Or we could see closers getting some real attention this year -- Sutter had like 66% of the vote last year-- or Goose Gossage, who was at like 55% of the 75% needed for enshrinement. If you consider those guys legitimate candidates, then Lee Smith should be in the mix too.
Honestly, I don't see any of the first ballot guys getting in. Dwight Gooden began his career as a shoe-in, but injuries and character issues (drug addiction, media problems) soured his career and his totals are far from HOF quality. Although his rookie season was one of t he most dominating pitching performaces in an entire season in the past 30 years.
Orel Hershiser's career totals don't quite add up either but he is a stronger candidate than Doc simply because he was clutch in the post season (an NLCS MVP, an ALCS MVP and a World Series MVP), and has that 59 consecutive inning scoreless streak, a record that still hasn't been broken. He does have the added bonus of baseball life after he retired, which is more likely to get him in down the road by the veteran's committe, and he was a strong personality for the game -- a genuine good guy. Too bad his career numbers fall short (97th in career wins, 58th in career strikeouts, 63rd in career games started, not in the top 100 in any other category of note). Will his post season dominance be enough to get him in? Probably not.
Will Clark is another "good guy" who won't quite measure up with the Hall's standards statistically. He doesn't pass the litmus for Bill James' grey or black ink tests -- black being a measure for the number of times leading the league in a stat category, grey being in the top 10 -- nor does he pass any of the Bill James sabermetrics HOF standards (baseballreference.com) which is a compilation of statistical standards of an average HOF candidate.
What Clark and Orel DO have going for them are strength of character and post season glory, which fall under the dreaded intagibles. While those thing are great to have, I think they really only help borderline candidates, which IMO both these players fall just short of.
Albert Belle is probably the strongest case and the most paradoxical. He passes the Kirby Puckett precident, which doesn't deminish a player's career because it was shortened by injury, but he has WAAAAY too many character issues. Where Puckett was considered a genuine good guy (recent accusations of adultery by his ex-wife and rape charges at a Minnesota restaurant have changed that perception a bit but it is important to note that he was aquitted on both) and good for the game, and very clutch in the postseason, Albert Belle was a misanthrope. He once threw a ball at a fan and was suspended, allegedly used a corked bat (the Omar Vizquel locker room heist incident), and was a notoriously hot-headed player. Personally, I think he should be in, his career numbers were AMAZING for the brief time he played -- and he passes the "was he considered a top player in his decade" standard employed by many voters -- he had at last 8 monster seasons, and 2 very good seasons in his 10 full seasons, but, again, I think the BBWAA will not get past his anger/character issues and off field problems.
Look at these individual seasons though:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/belleal01.shtml
It's important to note, that he and Jim Rice are very similar cases. Both were considered amongst the top hitters in the game during their tenure, and both had abbreviated careers with several monster seasons. I think if you set the precident for Rice to get in (which is more likely than Belle IMO), you can only deny Belle based on those character issues.
Andre Dawson deserves to be in Cooperstown, IMO, but his years as DH mean his career totals fall just short. Also, if you make him a HOFer, then you open up the floodgates for other borderline candidates like Dale Murphy, Joe Carter, etc. and the Hall suddenly becomes less mutually exclusive, more mutually inclusive and less elite -- thus no longer a compilation of the very best in the game, but a compliation of the best and the very good. That would diminsh the glory of HOF induction a bit.
Don Mattingly was never the same player after he pulled his back, but his Gold Glove defense has to make him a strong borderline candidate. The fact that the Yankees began winning World Series once he retired, hurts a bit, but the fact that he was a strong character, top performer at his position for an entire decade, had some very good seasons in the media spotlight of New York, and has been around the game after retirement might help push him in.
Bottom line: I think this is the year of the borderline candidate. I could see the BBWAA not choosing anyone or completely setting a new precident for players with shorter but illustrious careers (Belle, Rice, Mattingly). I really think it's time Bert Blyleven is voted in, his career numbers are very good, and the fact that he is not in yet is a shame. He was hurt by the fact that some voters see 300 wins as a benchmarkl. a total tha Bert would have easily eclipsed if he hadn't played on some really lousy teams. Like teh Cy Young award, it's time BBWAA start realizing that games won and lost are an indication of the team and not so much the individual pitcher. Time to right that wrong and enshrine Blyleven.
Precident for relievers will be interesting to see, because if Gossage and Sutter or Lee Smith get in, it will help future HOFs like Mariano Rivera gain first ballot enrollment down the road. Eckersley is in, but he was also a starter, and Smoltz is probably in down the road under the same criteria.
Finally, this would have been Pete Rose's last year of eligibility but commissioner Bud Selig would not lift the lifetime ban and, sadly, Rose's one character flaw -- betting on the game -- will keep him out of the Hall until the ban is lifted down the road and the veteran's committee can push him in (which I do see happening some day, just not anytime soon). It's a shame that the career leader in hits and one of the scrapiest players ever, will probably not be alive to see his bust in Cooperstown. He was everything to baseball for three decades that Johnny Damon has been the past few years.
