Unique twist - o/u plays

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Sep 21, 2004
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Contrarian theory says to go against the public when they are overwhelming on one side. Often you see the public heavy on the over which would indicate an under play.

However, it seems to me that if the majority of people are on the under ( which does not happen very often ) then the over become a much stronger play than taking the under when the public is on the over. The reasoning is that most people like to take the overs, and if most of them are on the under, the over becomes a much stronger contrarian play than usual . Thoughts ?
 

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Oct 13, 2004
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Totally correct.

While I would consider playing a non public dog side if say <33% were on the side, I would play the fave if say less than 40% are on the fave. Especialy if it is a big favorite. This scenario comes into play with Dallas and Pittsburgh this weekend.

Bud
 

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