Thought for those that still dont believe the spread matters

Dawoofdaddy · Dec 11, 2005

Indianapolis ranged from -7.5-9.5 Won by 8

Tennessee -5 Won by 3

Cincinnati -12 Won by 3

Washington -3-4.5 Won by 4

NYG -9 Won by 3

Denver -14.5 Won by 2

Dallas -3 Won by 3

Thus far, 7 of 14 games # has certainly factored into Win, Push, or Loss.

2 yet to be played -6.5 and -10.5

:smoker2:

Jarbo · Dec 11, 2005

Well -those were YOUR lines.

Not mine.

Dawoofdaddy · Dec 11, 2005

Jarbo

The idea of the thread is that # mattered in several games today.

Hopefully you are +$$$ today.

LEYKIS101 · Dec 11, 2005

Yeah, short sample size, but the tarriff sure caught up with the favorites today.

:drink:

Jarbo · Dec 11, 2005

DAWOOFDADDY said:
The idea of the thread is that # mattered in several games today.

Hopefully you are +$$$ today.

FINALLY!!!

:lolBIG:

jeckll · Dec 11, 2005

the fact is, in the long run, if you play favs that you like -pts and dogs that you like on the ML you'll come out more profitably than if you played the dogs +pts and/or the favs -ML

EasyMoney · Dec 11, 2005

ya, and you can't find 1 other week during the year where the spread mattered in more than 3 of the 14 games. 1 week out of 14 ain't bad i guess.

Dawoofdaddy · Dec 11, 2005

Leykis, days like today trash any serious data the theory may have had for entire season.

Several weeks this season several games the points have mattered.

Many weeks have several games with lines between pick and 2, so those games are insignificant as it should be expected # will not matter in those games.

hawkeye171 · Dec 11, 2005

I'm in a contest this week and took all the favorites, except I didn't pick the Giants-Eagles contest. So far, with the lines they used, I'm 6-6-1, with two pending. The contest required 15 picks. So to say the favorites finally had to pay the tarriff, is not entirely true.

LEYKIS101 · Dec 11, 2005

Agreed Hawkeye. But the fact that the spread mattered in so many games tells me the lines are getting harder for the favorite to overcome, somthing that hasnt happened recently.

I think the spread matters 17-20% long term in the NFL, if not mistaken, today was definitely a rarity.

Im glad the dogs finally hit a few though.

:drink:

Dawoofdaddy · Dec 11, 2005

Leykis, what is the % if the sample does not include games with line between pick and -2?

hawkeye171 · Dec 11, 2005

I too, wish the dogs would cover more. :suomi:

SHACK · Dec 11, 2005

My thought exactly Dawo. I love those teaers.

EasyMoney · Dec 11, 2005

woof, heres the stats for your 1 to a -2.5 thing plus a little more.

Since 1990 the SU winner has covered the spread 83% of the time.

When the spread is 1 to 2.5 the SU winner covers 97.3% of the time.
96.4% with a 3
81.4% with a 3.5 to 6.5
72.9% with a 7 to 9.5
69.5% with a 10 to 13.5
57% with a 14 or above.

Its still a pretty high % until you get to spreads of more than 14

LEYKIS101 · Dec 11, 2005

DAWOOFDADDY said:
Leykis, what is the % if the sample does not include games with line between pick and -2?

Good question, not having a database I can't accurately answer that one. Maybe Wantitall4moi or another poster will share his database results.

Thought for those that still dont believe the spread matters

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