Theory with Teasers

ensign_lee · Dec 12, 2005

Hey all. I was just thinking of something, and it made sense to me, but I may have overlooked a possible hole in my thinking.

Anyway, here goes.
Let's say you were thinking of doing a 5 way teaser and you could somehow magically predict that 4 of the 5 would hit (just assume for the sake of this thinking).

Now, would it be +EV to try take both aspects of a teaser on one game. For instance, this weekend, the Colts/Chargers game. Would it be +EV to take two 6 point teasers and hit up Colts -1.5 and Charger +13.5 simultaneously, with the other four picks being the same?

Let's put some numbers to this. Let's say you had $500 on each teaser, paying out 6 to 1.
I figure that these are the possible scenarios:

--------
Everything
plus Colts -1.5

Everything
plus Chargers +13.5

So the two are mutually exclusive, Colts and Chargers, with the possibility that the two could both hit. Assuming that my other games hit, then what would happen if...

Colts win by 14 or more
500 to 3000, 2500 net
lose 500
---
2000 net

Colts win by between 2 and 13
500 to win 3000, 2500 net
500 to win 3000, 2500 net
----
5000 net

Chargers win or Colts win by 1
lose 500
500 to 3000, 2500 net
----
2000 net

or...I could lose 1000 if any of the other four didn't hit.
--------

So is this a viable strategy? It gives me a fairly large middle, and with my other teams having hit (assumedly), I don't lose too much ($500 opportunity cost, it looks like). What do y'all think?

D2bets · Dec 12, 2005

ensign_lee · Dec 12, 2005

D2bets said:
No!

Ok then. I figured that what I was thinking was stupid, but why exactly is it stupid? I'd appreciate the theory. Thanks.

D2bets · Dec 12, 2005

Because you're betting against yourself (at poor odds). Once you know one side or the other has come through then you've immediately and inherently diminished the chances of the other side cashing.

If you magically can predict that 4 of the 5 will hit you can do a round-robin (10 plays) and you'll go 6-4. Not bad at even money. :money:

-Slim- · Dec 12, 2005

youre assuming you hit the first four teams in this teaser?

heck if youre that good you might as well assume youre gonna hit the 5th and just play it

LOL.

ensign_lee · Dec 13, 2005

Ok. So I was thinking about this some more, and I still don't see why this is bad.

If you just took the first 4, without taking opposite sides on the fifth game, then you'd have 1500 net. However, if you take both sides on the fifth game, the WORST you can do is 2000 net and the best you can do is 5000 net.

Why is it bad?

Or does the fault lie in assuming that you'll hit the first four?

jeckll · Dec 13, 2005

ensign_lee said:
Or does the fault lie in assuming that you'll hit the first four?

D2bets · Dec 13, 2005

ensign_lee said:
Ok. So I was thinking about this some more, and I still don't see why this is bad.

If you just took the first 4, without taking opposite sides on the fifth game, then you'd have 1500 net. However, if you take both sides on the fifth game, the WORST you can do is 2000 net and the best you can do is 5000 net.

Why is it bad?

Or does the fault lie in assuming that you'll hit the first four?

No you wouldn't. 4-teamer should pay 3 to 1. Take your $1,000 (500 each) and put it on the 4-teamer for a, well, guaranteed, $3,000 win.

Plus, I'm not sure where you're getting 5 to 1 on 5-team 6-pt teasers. Seems to me 4.5-1 is the standard. If you really are getting 5-1 then I can see why you'd want to do 5-teamers. I don't believe anyone on the net offers 5-1 on 5-teamers.

ChuckSims · Dec 13, 2005

A bookmakers dream, a bettor that teases both sides of the same game.

khuber · Dec 14, 2005

Amen to that! Bookies look at teasers as sucker bets to begin with, to see someone tease both sides of the same game makes them lick their lips.

The_Shark · Dec 14, 2005

this is amateur hour............

rugby · Dec 14, 2005

Hey ensign...............I'm not a big advocate of teasers in football, but I am huge advocate for college hoops teasers. I never hedge a teaser, and I never play the same team on more than 1 teaser because it only takes 1 game to blow all your teasers if they are on more than 1. Just an example from last night.

3 3team teasers
nova -7
st. louie +8.5
n. ill -4.5
Lost

la tech. +.5
lsu -12
nm st. +17
win

depaul +15.5
ore. -7.5
af -4
win

wagered $100 to win $180 on each one. won 2, lost 1 for a $260 profit. I'll make these wagers everyday all season and do quite well.

GL.......................Rugby :toast:

I play 3 and 4 team teasers all season in college hoops and do very well

PatrickMcIrish · Dec 14, 2005

Yep almost impossible to lose like that Rugby. Tease a team from every single game on the 9 game card into a 3 team teaser, tease the winner once and once only in each teaser in case it loses you only lose 1 teaser. Use this in a college hoop teaser system and it's almost impossible to lose. Heck NCAA totals would be even a bigger gold mine if someone used this system!!

:smoker2: :smoker2:

cincy_ · Dec 14, 2005

Go to TOW and read the article by Simon Noble of Pinnacle Sportsbook. He essentially calls this type of teaser play STUPID.

rugby · Dec 14, 2005

Simon Noble can call it what he wants, but I'm not sure what's stupid about them if I'm turning big profits with them.

Hey McIrish..........how is your college hoops totals prowess? I never played totals because I always thought there was too much volatility in scoring, but is that not that the case ? I wouldn't mind another avenue for filling my pockets with cash.

Later............................Rugby :toast:

D2bets · Dec 14, 2005

rugby said:
Hey ensign...............I'm not a big advocate of teasers in football, but I am huge advocate for college hoops teasers. I never hedge a teaser, and I never play the same team on more than 1 teaser because it only takes 1 game to blow all your teasers if they are on more than 1. Just an example from last night.

3 3team teasers
nova -7
st. louie +8.5
n. ill -4.5
Lost

la tech. +.5
lsu -12
nm st. +17
win

depaul +15.5
ore. -7.5
af -4
win

wagered $100 to win $180 on each one. won 2, lost 1 for a $260 profit. I'll make these wagers everyday all season and do quite well.

GL.......................Rugby :toast:

I play 3 and 4 team teasers all season in college hoops and do very well

You also went 6-3 ATS (normal spread) on your sides. It wasn't the fact that you teased them that made you money. The teased points only helped you in 1/9 games. That's an implied loss on the teases. Think about it. Maybe you have done well, but maybe you could have done better.

BCTTWR · Dec 14, 2005

cincy_ said:
Go to TOW and read the article by Simon Noble of Pinnacle Sportsbook. He essentially calls this type of teaser play STUPID.

Word

rugby · Dec 14, 2005

D2bets.............you make a good point, but relative to the amount of time I put in to 3 teasers as opposed to 9 straight plays, the return on investment is still pretty attractive. The way see it.............profit = win

Later.........................Rugby

rugby · Dec 14, 2005

I was stupid again. Just finished with W. KY/Bradley

4Team teaser
UIC +8.5
Cincy -3
Minny pk
W. Ky +8

C-ya at the banks boys !!!

Later..........................Rugby :toast: