Fishhead brings up a good point this morning

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How accurate can you be predicting the line movement from the overnight lines?

If you were good, you could really set your self up with some nice scalps using Pinnys drop-down menu. However if you missed, you could be left in deep water.


Take for example if you predicted the Steam to hit Seattle throughout the night.


You Take Golden St -1-107 last night for $535 to win $500
Now with the Line movement Seattle has moved to -1 at pinny and you move Golden St to -1+111 you have given yourself a 4 cent scalp.

Can this strategy be executed daily. .. Fish, what are your thoughts?
 

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I don't have any numbers to back it up so take this with a grain of salt but usually i've noticed that that if I bet fav's on the overnight's and dogs before tip off I usually do alright against line movements
 

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Kruser---



Somewhat do what you are suggesting practically on a daily basis...........for years.
 

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Kruser6 said:
How accurate can you be predicting the line movement from the overnight lines?

If you were good, you could really set your self up with some nice scalps using Pinnys drop-down menu. However if you missed, you could be left in deep water.


Take for example if you predicted the Steam to hit Seattle throughout the night.


You Take Golden St -1-107 last night for $535 to win $500
Now with the Line movement Seattle has moved to -1 at pinny and you move Golden St to -1+111 you have given yourself a 4 cent scalp.

Can this strategy be executed daily. .. Fish, what are your thoughts?




What happens if SEA wins?
 

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Moon88 said:
What happens if SEA wins?

It doesnt matter who wins in a scalp. He suggested betting 535 to win 500 on GState -1 -107.

Then after the linemovement, you can get GState -1 +111. With that you bet say 491 to win 545. With this scenario, you will win 9 or 10 bucks no matter the outcome. You can swing this to have larger gains on a team you like.
 

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Yeah it seems like Moon88 is right, you've only taken one side of the bet:

G State -1 -107
G State -1 +111

If G State -1 doesn't cover, you win nothing.
 

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I don't think there is any way to predict this movement with 100% accuracy.

Fish, how accurate would you say you are with this -- how often does it move the next day to a scalpable/middleable number? If it's over 80% I'm impressed.

You;d have to be willing to live with sticking with a play that doesn't move your way or be willing to take a juice loss, sometimes steep if the spread moves badly against you.

It's tricky.
 

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Fishhead said:
Kruser---



Somewhat do what you are suggesting practically on a daily basis...........for years.

Could you expand on this Fish?
 

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D2bets said:
I don't think there is any way to predict this movement with 100% accuracy.

Fish, how accurate would you say you are with this -- how often does it move the next day to a scalpable/middleable number? If it's over 80% I'm impressed.

You;d have to be willing to live with sticking with a play that doesn't move your way or be willing to take a juice loss, sometimes steep if the spread moves badly against you.

It's tricky.


Have two monitors(used to have three) with one monitoring lines.

Would guess that 95%+ of the time correct on moves.........with the majority(over 50%) becoming profitable middle/scalps.

Understand, been doing this for a long time and experience is very advantageous with something such as this.
 

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I love the crossover favorite scalp.

Nothing like grabbing one team +104 "knowing" you are going to get the other +110.

I play many polish middles also, laying -1 on a game I know willl increase, then taking +120 or more on their opponent. It sure confuses everyone else though when they see me constantly rooting for whoever has the lead.
 

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Kruser6 said:
Sorry, I posted the wrong team


OK so what is offered at the moment at Pinny that makes taking Sea a risk-free scalp?
 

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Fezzik said:
Nothing like grabbing one team +104 "knowing" you are going to get the other +110.

It sure confuses everyone else though when they see me constantly rooting for whoever has the lead.

:lolBIG: just win baby, by a lot.
 

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Fezzik said:
Nothing like grabbing one team +104 "knowing" you are going to get the other +110.

I play many polish middles also, laying -1 on a game I know willl increase, then taking +120 or more on their opponent. It sure confuses everyone else though when they see me constantly rooting for whoever has the lead.

If the percentages are your in favor, great move.

Do a few of these a month myself.

It almost makes one feel like a bookmaker ............meaning you win with either side but if it falls on the number..........UGH.
 

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I have never toyed with the "Polish" scalp or middle myself....

seems way too scary for me.....
 

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Fishhead said:
If the percentages are your in favor, great move.

Do a few of these a month myself.

It almost makes one feel like a bookmaker ............meaning you win with either side but if it falls on the number..........UGH.

Man, ALMOST had a $12,000 risk a few weeks back to win a few bucks on the PITT Monday night game.

Even though the percentages were in my favor, backed off.

Would have won, but what a sweat it would have been.

The bet evolved around a FIRST HALF wager in which I won if Pitt did not win by exactly SIX in the first half.

They were leading by SIX very late until they intercepted and hit a long FG as time expired.

I swear, would have had my heart rate up to 200 on that wager if placed!
 

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