2nd half betting strategies?

[jimmydingle]

What are some of the standard spots to make 2nd half wagers in nfl, nba, and ncaa? generally just a side and total guy for the game, but want some help before i jump in to some 2nd half bets

[BetIt]

This is one i generally follow in the NFL...

If a team if up by 18 or more at halftime...take the under in the 2nd half. It hit in the Dallas game yesterday.

Idea is team blowing them out...doesn't try to score and just runs clock...Team down will take more chances and not go for longer Field Goals...

The last 5 or so minutes of a game like this is usually teams just trying to get out uninjured as well.

[JamesHunt]

NFL isn't my forte but I get the impression that the value is usually on the team ahead at half time to keep up to its work. I have a fair idea why this might be so too.

[maxdemo]

I love 1st and 2nd half bets...and quarters and periods for hockey...call it a quick fix if you like..
But one thing I have noticed in over 10 years of gambling is that if the home team is down at half time and did not cover the 1st half I usually jump on them. I have noticed that a team usually does not cover both halves (1st & 2nd)...JMO

[cincy_]

NEVER take a line is worse than what you would have received before the game.

For example,

The Bulls are a 5 point favorite over the Hawks. The Bulls are down by 3 at HT. The halftime line is Bulls -3.5 so they now have to to win the game by 1 point.

At this point, you can't take the Hawks because you would have them at +0.5 instead of the +5 that you would have received before the game.

You either take the Bulls or you pass.

[Fishhead]

Good topic here.

By the way, these are the type of threads that I personally would like to see more of in the OFFSHORE forum.

[Pancho Sanza]

NEVER take a line is worse than what you would have received before the game.

For example,

The Bulls are a 5 point favorite over the Hawks. The Bulls are down by 3 at HT. The halftime line is Bulls -3.5 so they now have to to win the game by 1 point.

At this point, you can't take the Hawks because you would have them at +0.5 instead of the +5 that you would have received before the game.

You either take the Bulls or you pass.

Absolute horseshit.

[cincy_]

Absolute horseshit.

Yup, it sure was. Thanks for backing up that comment with facts and statistics.

[jeffksu]

that 2nd reply is right on the money...if the "favorite" in college or pro football is winning by 17 or more at half...bet the 2nd half under...it has a great record...so far this year it is something like 28-6...producing winners for the rx forum...just the past two i can think of off the top are washington yesterday and seattle on the monday fiasco in philly...

[cincy_]

that 2nd reply is right on the money...if the "favorite" in college or pro football is winning by 17 or more at half...bet the 2nd half under...it has a great record...so far this year it is something like 28-6...producing winners for the rx forum...just the past two i can think of off the top are washington yesterday and seattle on the monday fiasco in philly...

2-1 this week in the NFL

[jeffksu]

thanks for the update but over the long haul it will make you money....

[cincy_]

thanks for the update but over the long haul it will make you money....

I agree it is profitable now, but I am not sure about the long run ... I have seen a tendency these days for the books to have low totals during these situations. There will come a point when the totals are so low for these 2nd halfs, it won't be a good bet anymore.

[jimmydingle]

also wondering about best situations to hedge with a 2nd half bet, seems like baskets would offer a number of these spots

[Pancho Sanza]

Yup, it sure was. Thanks for backing up that comment with facts and statistics.

Do your own research, not my job to educate the lazy.:finger23:

[parlayin]

nice...a guy comes in w/ a theory, you berate him by callin his theory horseshit...then call him lazy in another post and flip him off...what a contribution!

[Pancho Sanza]

nice...a guy comes in w/ a theory, you berate him by callin his theory horseshit...then call him lazy in another post and flip him off...what a contribution!

His theory is wrong, is there something wrong with me pointing it out?

Maybe it will save some gamblers money who would have otherwise followed his stupid system.

As far as him asking me to post facts/statistics, I didn't see any from him.

Trust me he doesn't have em because if he did, he wouldn't have made his silly statement.

[heart222]

i like denver nba third and 4th periods. altitude thing.

[cincy_]

His theory is wrong, is there something wrong with me pointing it out?

Maybe it will save some gamblers money who would have otherwise followed his stupid system.

As far as him asking me to post facts/statistics, I didn't see any from him.

Trust me he doesn't have em because if he did, he wouldn't have made his silly statement.

What I said was like telling someone new to sports gambling to never bet a favorite and lay more than 3 points in the NFL. Now does that mean you should never lay more than 3? No. It is just something that I tell someone new to sports betting. It is a simple guideline, nothing else. A person new to halftimes thinks just because a team covered in the 1st half, they will roll in the 2nd half too just like a square thinks favorites will always win by 21 points. It is nothing more than a rule of thumb.

As for the facts, I will share my database with any of these moderators (and not you) if you are willing to put up $100 (or any amount you choose) in escrow with them. I will give them $100 too. You can choose from among JMan, Bucsfan, Dante and Wilheim. If they decide that I do not have the game logs and the sheets that has been tracking halftime lines for the past 2 NBA/NCAA seasons, you keep my $100. Otherwise, I keep yours. If you want to up the ante, be my guest.

Are you going to put your money where your mouth is Pancho Sanza or are you going to keep it up your ass? Talk is cheap so I hope you aren't going to run away and hide.

[cincy_]

If PS decides to take me up on my offer, I want to make it clear that I am not saying that my database proves that the betting strategy I proposed is a winner.

I am simply saying that when you take a line worse than what the game started with, you do not reach 49%, let alone 52% or 55% ... and that is why I said to avoid them.

[Pancho Sanza]

If PS decides to take me up on my offer, I want to make it clear that I am not saying that my database proves that the betting strategy I proposed is a winner.

I am simply saying that when you take a line worse than what the game started with, you do not reach 49%, let alone 52% or 55% ... and that is why I said to avoid them.

What is the specific bet you want to make?

Only $100?

[quantumleap]

I agree it is profitable now, but I am not sure about the long run ... I have seen a tendency these days for the books to have low totals during these situations. There will come a point when the totals are so low for these 2nd halfs, it won't be a good bet anymore.

Tonight's game fits that situation. The 2nd-half total is 16.5. I've been seeing them around 17 or so.

[cincy_]

What is the specific bet you want to make?

Only $100?

You name the price. You send the money to a mod and I will too. Just don't run and hide. I simply said $100 as a random figure. If you want to make it a bigger amount, tell me how much you have sent and I will do the same.

[cincy_]

What is the specific bet you want to make?

Only $100?

Until you send the money, I will consider you to be a loser with a big mouth and leave it at that. This is my final reply until we get Pancho to walk the walk.

[RED EYE]

Good topic here.

By the way, these are the type of threads that I personally would like to see more of in the OFFSHORE forum.

I have a good reason inside my head that i won't share on why its not a good idea to have these kinds of threads. You can ask me off of the forum if you want

[quantumleap]

Tonight's game fits that situation. The 2nd-half total is 16.5. I've been seeing them around 17 or so.

If you bet the under 17 you would have lost. I think overall it's a winning bet though.