Since I have tried to figure this out on my own for the last 2 days and still not sure of the answer, here is the question. One of my locals has very poor NBA lines (leaves for the day and gets them really early, has a bunch of favorite/square customers). I am finding some 2.5 point (-110) middles every day with pinny's lines. Is it better to try for these (under double digits) or just scalp versus pinny(12 cent scalp on average) or play the weak line he is giving me (true gambling). I have tested all sorts of ideas and I am pretty sure in the long run the right move is to shoot for the middle in this situation, everytime. I even think a 2 point middle may be a little better than the scalp. Any thoughts or opinions would be greatly appreciated. I want to bury this guy and get back most of my NFL losses and take advantage of what is a huge oppurtuinity.
Woody, Let me get this straight. You're saying if the lines I am being dealt are Indy -5 -110 versus Chicago +5 +122 or +7.5 -110, I should maybe go with a Indy -5 -110 versus Chicago +6.5 +112 (if this was available), locking in a small scalp and havin a shot for one middle. Everyone that I have spoke to seem to think that just betting the weak line( which is gambling) will eventually lead to pounding the book, but I wonder how many bets will have to be made to assure this.
Cincy, You have been a great help the past few weeks, to all these questions I have asked. I'm just wondering what the math behind this would say is correct. When you say I can middle some of it, are you saying sclap some for less money and reduce your middle from 2.5 points to 1.5 points with the rest, instead of going all in on one bet. I just not sure how profitable 1.5 point middles are.
ice man said:
You need to stop talking to everyone and just try to figure this out with real numbers. What people say is useless if they can't back it up with facts.
In this example:
Indy -5 -110 versus Chicago +6.5 +112
It is stupid to just bet the weak line. You can do much better. If you want to wager 1 unit on Indiana and you have the cash:
Wager 20 units on Indiana = 22 units to win 20
Wager 19 units on Chacago = 19 units to win 21.28
You are laying .72 units to win 1.00 units on Indiana, which is +138. That is way better than the -110 you would get if you were just hitting the weak line. You are still betting the weak line like people are telling you to - but at reduced juice and you also have the hope of hitting the middle.
... and if the game falls on 6, you have hit the jackpot. You collect from Pinny and your bookie runs off to New Mexico, never to be seen again ... but you're still up 20 units so its ok.
ice man said:
Frankly, I don't either. Just try to play with reduced vig (or + vig) as much as possible and you'll have much more success. If you can shoot for a middle on THE MAN'S money, go for it every time. Why do you want to pay for the middle and why do you want to lay -110 for the weak line? In my example, you are:
1. Playing a weak line at +138 vig
2. Have a chance at a middle at 6 (or a side at 5) and not paying for it
Did you understand my example, though?
Yes I understand it. Posted this on "fezziks place" and he said hit the bad line, hard. Not sure I agree for that is gambling. It looks like you are saying to keep plugging away at free middle shot (scalp cancels this out). 2.5 middle or 12 cent scalp still wish I had a answer so I could follow the rules, I like your thoughts (free roll on 1.5 middles) also.
Korn, Have tried it both ways the past two weeks. I know one thing I will go for every middle I can. It at least gets your heart beating (as compared to just scalping). Seems to good to be true. I have always thought about comparing lines to locals and playing and was stunned that thier is usually 1 or 2 great choices a nite versus heavy nba board. Really thin I'm on to something just trying to this out. Local has deep pockets (everyone losses to him)
Play the local a "tad" more than just a 100% Middle. Leave yourself long to the weak number and have the middle going for you at the same time.
Wished i had that chance everyday!!
You will catch some middles and some "tie" sides througout the season. Remember those 2-3 out of line numbers in Totals are not nearly as strong as the sides.
BOL to you.
Wished i had that chance everyday!!
You will catch some middles and some "tie" sides througout the season. Remember those 2-3 out of line numbers in Totals are not nearly as strong as the sides.
BOL to you.
I would make a net bet at your local for a bit more than your usual bet, making sure to hit him as hard as you can.
Let's assume the max. you can hit him for is $2000
Let's also assume your usual bet is $300
In this case the best is to bet $2000 at the local and $1600 on the other side at Pinny for a net bet of $400
Whether to use the sell points feature at Pinny is really a matter of taste because you will lose some EV but also lower your variance which is good. Just make sure you don't buy the points making a bigger middle because that's the worst of both worlds (lower EV and higher variance). Either take Pinny's line straight up, or sell points to make it a smaller middle or a scalp.
Let's assume the max. you can hit him for is $2000
Let's also assume your usual bet is $300
In this case the best is to bet $2000 at the local and $1600 on the other side at Pinny for a net bet of $400
Whether to use the sell points feature at Pinny is really a matter of taste because you will lose some EV but also lower your variance which is good. Just make sure you don't buy the points making a bigger middle because that's the worst of both worlds (lower EV and higher variance). Either take Pinny's line straight up, or sell points to make it a smaller middle or a scalp.
I should add that if you're in it for the long-term, I'd consider only betting $1000 at the local and $600 at Pinny because you want to stay under the radar and not have him boot you or limit you even more. Even the dumb ones figure it out after you beat them enough times. He may even appreciate your business since you will probably balance his action somewhat. Simply asking him how much is best for him between $1000 and $2000 might be the ideal way to go.
