OT poker question

RacerX · Jan 5, 2006

only posting it here b/c I think it will get more views and more answers.

you're in a tourney. 75 guys. 5000 chips each. You are sitting with 4500 in chips. Early in the tourney and the blinds are 50-100

You have As and 2s.

Flop comes Ks 6h Qs.....

You open for 800.
Button raises you all in
Big blind calls the all in

what would you do?

BoZZi · Jan 5, 2006

IMO, the first mistake was playing the hand, second one was opening for 800 on that flop.....i don't know if there was a preflop raise and how big the pot was on the flop......

either way it's an easy fold, possibly BB has 66 or at least 2 pair

if it was a top heavy tournament like 40-20-10 for top 3 or so I might gamble here as it is a great chance to get a lot of chips early.....either way u would be left with around 3500 chips and with the blinds at 50-100 if u fold, there is plenty of time left.

so my answer is FOLD.....

Dante · Jan 5, 2006

Racer X said:
only posting it here b/c I think it will get more views and more answers.

you're in a tourney. 75 guys. 5000 chips each. You are sitting with 4500 in chips. Early in the tourney and the blinds are 50-100

You have As and 2s.

Flop comes Ks 6h Qs.....

You open for 800.
Button raises you all in
Big blind calls the all in

what would you do?

you should not be in that hand racerX your Kicker is to low like Bozzi says and the bet of 800 was sorta silly so early...maybe you raise to 150 if you like playing that junk to see where you are at on the table

but you FOLD for sure with a call on the all in

good luck speed:toast:

primetime21+ · Jan 5, 2006

Fold. You are getting pretty decent odds to call. Presuming one guy has 2 pair and the other has a set, you are still about 30 percent chance to take down the pot. And if you do, you will be a big chip leader and in GREAT shape.

However, i still wouldnt call since you have only contributed about 900 to the pot and unless you are the worst player at the table, you will find better oppurtunites later on. But it is defenitely a close call considering the amount of money in the pot.

PS- I think you would get more responses in the poker forum than here.

RacerX · Jan 5, 2006

I agree....it was a hypothetical that a friend and I were talking about.

He said to call BOTH all-ins chasing the flush b/c you can get 3-1 on your money.

I have to play poker with him more often :suomi:

ElJefe · Jan 5, 2006

Racer X said:
only posting it here b/c I think it will get more views and more answers.

you're in a tourney. 75 guys. 5000 chips each. You are sitting with 4500 in chips. Early in the tourney and the blinds are 50-100

You have As and 2s.

Flop comes Ks 6h Qs.....

You open for 800.
Button raises you all in
Big blind calls the all in

what would you do?

If either caller has KK or QQ in the hole, they will have a big edge. Since the big blind is involved, it seems there is a chance they might have limped in with K-6, Q-6, or even 6-6. Those hands should give them an edge over you also. If it were me, I would fold your hand and wait for another opportunity - especially that early in the tournament.

You would be in a better spot if there were maybe 3-4 callers, no one raising too much, etc. Then you try to go for the big flush and hope nothing else shows up that could give someone a full house.

tooran · Jan 5, 2006

Yeah, depending on how early in the tourney it is, and how much the entry fee is, I'd definitely consider going up against 2 all ins for a nut flush draw. But if it was a pricy tourney, or if I was already playing for a couple hours and doing half-decent, I probably wouldn't. Odds of you hitting another spade for the nut flush after the flop are about 40% (maybe a little less), and your return would be 2-1 in chips. Probably not wise in any event, but I'd consider it in the right circumstances...

TwoCard · Jan 5, 2006

Fold - on the information given

RacerX · Jan 5, 2006

tooran said:
Odds of you hitting another spade for the nut flush after the flop are about 40% (maybe a little less)

I figured the odds to be 19%....is this correct?

4 spades showing...only 9 left in the deck.

47 unexposed cards left in total.....

steeser · Jan 5, 2006

You have 2 cards to come, you are closer to 38% to make your flush, but there will also be some potential cards that pair the board, in which case you lose to a full house.

tooran · Jan 5, 2006

Racer X said:
I figured the odds to be 19%....is this correct?

4 spades showing...only 9 left in the deck.

47 unexposed cards left in total.....

Yeah, like Steeser said, you have 19% chance x 2 (Turn and River).

primetime21+ · Jan 5, 2006

its not 19%x2. You forget about redraws. For example you hit your flush on turn and your opponent rivers a boat. You are about 30 percent or so presuming one of your opponents probably has 2 pair or a set.

Matt24 · Jan 5, 2006

Racer X said:
only posting it here b/c I think it will get more views and more answers.

you're in a tourney. 75 guys. 5000 chips each. You are sitting with 4500 in chips. Early in the tourney and the blinds are 50-100

You have As and 2s.

Flop comes Ks 6h Qs.....

You open for 800.
Button raises you all in
Big blind calls the all in

what would you do?

Lets do some math, also I encourage you to post your stuff in the poker forum as we are trying to do more down there. I am going to assume that there was 350 in the pot going to the flop.

I'm not sure why you would bet 800 into that pot, but maybe someone raised and the pot is actually bigger, if so, you need to state that.

350 + 800 + 4500 + 4500= 10150. You only have to call 3700 to win that 10150, so the pot is offering you 2.74 to 1. You need 26.69% equity to make this call correct.

Lets put these guys on a range.

Pokerstove is giving me issues, but this is what I came up with right quick.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
343,140 games 0.093 secs 3,689,677 games/sec
Board: Ks 6h Qs
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.4782 % 28.24% 00.24% { As2s }
Hand 2: 35.7609 % 34.36% 01.40% { QQ+, 66, AKs, KQs, K6s, Q6s, JsTs }
Hand 3: 35.7609 % 34.36% 01.40% { QQ+, 66, AKs, KQs, K6s, Q6s, JsTs }

If this is a live donkfest game, this is a pretty tight range for these guys and you should still call having 28% equity. I wouldn't think they would limp in with QQ plus but I included them in the range. I think I made a too tough of a range and this is actually an easy call.

primetime21+ · Jan 5, 2006

matt, you call this an easy call? Like i said in my earlier post you are definitely getting good odds to call and you get a huge benefit of being a chip leader early in the tourney, but if you think you are up against inferior players why would you instacall knowing that odds are, you will be knocked out on this hand?

If you in a tournament with pros, i can see the benefit in calling because you will be less likely to outplay your opponents, but against your average joe poker player there is less of a reason to blow your whole stack in this spot.

Matt24 · Jan 5, 2006

Matt Matros had a great article in Cardplayer about this very thing, he basically said you can't pass edges up and I agree, I'll take every small edge I can get.

With the range I gave, you could fold as you don't have a huge overlay and its very close, but I think the true range on these guys is actually wider and you have more equity in the pot.

BC-Eagles · Jan 5, 2006

i agree with Matt here, ALTHOUGH there is a big difference between playing to win and playing to place IMO

primetime21+ · Jan 5, 2006

This is the early part of the tourney. we arent talking about playing passively we are talking about staying alive in a situation when you have plenty of chips and you are putting all of your chips in the pot as a dog. So i dont think people that fold here are playing just to place.

Do you guys really think that a pro calls here 10 out of 10 times simply because he is getting slightly better odds?

Again, i don't think its a bad call, but its far from a no brainer instacall.

Matt24 · Jan 5, 2006

I never said anything about this being an instacall, but I would call against a bunch of donks, because the pot is giving me an overlay. Now Phil H would pass this up in a heartbeat, other pros would call it in a heartbeat.

I think I'm a pretty good player, but I'm not too good to pass up small edges, which is exactly what Matt Matros says.

primetime21+ · Jan 5, 2006

matt if you are talking about the article where he discusses calling with a 52 percent chance to win vs a hand like AK i think its a little different then this situation when you have a 70 percent chance at losing.

And i am little confused by your statement where you said that you would call against a bunch of donks. I would think that it makes more sense to make this call against great players who you may not be able to outplay later in the tournament. Against a table of donks it would seem counterintuitive for a player of your caliber to risk his whole tournament on a slight edge gamble as opposed to outplaying them.

If i was at a table with 9 other pros i would definitely call in this spot because i may not be able to outplay them and would be a dope not to take this slight edge oppurtunity. but against donks, i would rather wait and get all in when i think i am 75% fave.

Matt24 · Jan 5, 2006

I said that because vs a bunch of donks the range I made is too tight, you actually have more equity in the pot making it an even better call. I think calling with QQ vs AK is very similiar, the risk/reward is just a bit different, You are getting a small overlay.