Is this a good bet?

Iceman · Jan 7, 2006

NBA total: over 196 -110 and under 198 -110. Basically 2 point middle with -110 juice. I say yes but barely. Would you do it?

Iceman · Jan 7, 2006

come on anyone??

Journeyman · Jan 7, 2006

No I would not do it....that will lose money long term IMO

BaseballGuy · Jan 7, 2006

ice man said:
NBA total: over 196 -110 and under 198 -110. Basically 2 point middle with -110 juice. I say yes but barely. Would you do it?

No. You have to look at the chances of winning.

You win if the total hits 196,197,198

Is that worth the juice? I don't think so.

Kruser6 · Jan 7, 2006

Totals need a bigger spread to take the chance at the middle. . . A 2 point chance for the middle on the spread I would say yes. . But a 2 pt total -110. . .No way.

Could you use Pinny drop down menu and save some juice?

Iceman · Jan 7, 2006

my math is this. If the game hits the # 2.5% of time than those 3 #'s have a combined 7.5% chance of hitting. 92.5% chance of losing times $10 bucks a loss (one side wins) is $925 in losses. On the plus side is 196 should hit 2.5% of time(winning once and pushing once for $250 profit) 197 hits both sides(250 times both winners =$500) and 198 hits 2.5 % of time with a push on ther side for $250 profit.
Add $250+$500+$250=$1,000 won subtract from $925 loss is net profit of $75. Sounds simple but I think this right.

picasso · Jan 7, 2006

For NBA game totals, a half point is worth about 5 cents. Therefore, a 2 point middle on the total at -110 for each side is roughly breakeven.

Fishhead · Jan 7, 2006

picasso said:
For NBA game totals, a half point is worth about 5 cents. Therefore, a 2 point middle on the total at -110 for each side is roughly breakeven.

Yup, breakeven basically.