How do you figure this out ?

Doug · Jan 12, 2006

An event where there are 3 outcomes.

Team A is -350
Team B is +500
Draw is +500

What is the effective ML on team A, in other words you are betting Team A, and the draw so if the match ends tied you break even. How much do you bet on draw in realation to the favorite, and how do you figure it ?

You want Team A, but don't want to lose anything with a tie. This comes up in games like soccer when dealing with a book that has 3-way lines instead of the Asian handicap.

I can get -712, ( +572 takeback on dog) ML, or -350 and lose a draw on a 3-way line elsewhere. The 3-way has a higher hold, but what would the ML be by betting -350 and the draw ?

vanzack · Jan 12, 2006

Im not a math wizard - but I think I have the example above calculated at -1710 (yes -17 to 1).

Heres how I came up with it:

To match equal winnings on both the win for team A and the draw would take a bet of 467 on team A at -350 to win 133 and a bet of 100 on a draw at 5-1 which would pay 500. If team A wins you net out 33 and if it is a draw you net out 33.

So you are risking a total of 567 to win 33 which equals about 17 to 1.

Im sure this can be put in to a formula but I would need a little while.

Doug · Jan 12, 2006

vanzack said:
Im not a math wizard - but I think I have the example above calculated at -1710 (yes -17 to 1).

Heres how I came up with it:

To match equal winnings on both the win for team A and the draw would take a bet of 467 on team A at -350 to win 133 and a bet of 100 on a draw at 5-1 which would pay 500. If team A wins you net out 33 and if it is a draw you net out 33.

So you are risking a total of 567 to win 33 which equals about 17 to 1.

Im sure this can be put in to a formula but I would need a little while.

I don't want to win money with a draw, I want to break even on a draw,and win when the fav wins, which is what happens with the -712/ +572 line.

I could figure this out by trial and error if I tried, just thought somebody might have an easy way or a link to some calculator.

vanzack · Jan 12, 2006

OK - then the amount to put on team A to win is determined by the odds on the draw.

For instance - in this case it is +500. So you need to have a 5 to 1 ratio on your win bet to your draw bet. If you do this, your draw will always break you even.

So in this case, if you had 100 on draw and 500 on win - you make 42.85 if team A wins which is a risk of 600 to win 42.85 which is approx 14-1.

drunkguy · Jan 12, 2006

i think you are making it too complicated. If I understand it right, you want:

if Team A wins, you win
if Team B wins, you lose
if it is a draw you push

in that case, you just need to hedge back on the tie bet....if you bet $350 on Team A (risk), than you need to put $70 on the tie to cover that. (so on a tie you lose 350 on your team A bet, but win 350 on your draw bet)

so the breakdown is:

risk 350 on Team A to win 100
risk 70 on draw to win 350

Team A wins: win 100
Team B wins, lose 420
draw: overall push

so you are essentially playing at a Team A moneyline at -420

drunkguy · Jan 12, 2006

vanzack said:
So in this case, if you had 100 on draw and 500 on win - you make 42.85 if team A wins

nope, betting $500 on a -350 is a bit more than that

vanzack · Jan 12, 2006

drunkguy said:
i think you are making it too complicated. If I understand it right, you want:

if Team A wins, you win
if Team B wins, you lose
if it is a draw you push

in that case, you just need to hedge back on the tie bet....if you bet $350 on Team A (risk), than you need to put $70 on the tie to cover that. (so on a tie you lose 350 on your team A bet, but win 350 on your draw bet)

so the breakdown is:

risk 350 on Team A to win 100
risk 70 on draw to win 350

Team A wins: win 100
Team B wins, lose 420
draw: overall push

so you are essentially playing at a Team A moneyline at -420

I think you got it right until you got to the very end.

Team A wins: win 100 but lose 70 = 30
Team B wins lose 420
Draw = push

So you are risking 420 to win 30 which is 14-1 as I stated above.

vanzack · Jan 12, 2006

Drunkguy you are forgetting the LOSING draw bet.

Thats what kills his odds here!

drunkguy · Jan 12, 2006

yep, you are correct

Doug · Jan 12, 2006

It's actually Swedish hockey (# 435-6 ) at Pinny. Total is 5.5 with over at +106, under at -122.

I could play Linkopings at -712, or -2 -125, or go to CRIS and get -350 at what is essentially -.5.

Only regulation time counts, so draw is possible.

This play is from Blacklab/ Steammaker guy that used to post here, he's got -2 +105, but it's at -2 -125, his numbers are hard to get, usually. He does well with this euro hockey, but play is probably mediocre value after moving this much. The -350 sounds good when compared to -712, plus a one goal win is a win instead of a loss. These half "points" are sure worth a lot, aren't they ?

billpapa · Jan 12, 2006

Let's assume you bet x on team A and y on the tie. Your outlay is x+y. Since you want to break even in the case of a tie you need
x+y = y + 5y or x=5y in other words you should bet 1/5 of your bet on team A on the tie.
Now, let's figure the effective ML for A. If A wins you have bet 1.2x but you get paid x*100/350. Putting this figure in the basic ML equation we get

return = risk * 100 /ML (basic equation when ML is negative)
x*100/350 = 120 * x / EFFECTIVE ML

Eliminating the x from bothe sides leaves

100/350 = 120 / Effecive ML

so, effective ML = 350 *120 / 100 or -420 in your case.
It seems from the formulas above that in the general case where you are betting on the favorite at -odds and the tie ML is TML assuming that TML is a positive number the effective ML you are getting is the
actual ML * (1+100/TML)

G.MONEY · Jan 12, 2006

2-2 in the 3rd period..........

Doug · Jan 12, 2006

billpapa said:
Let's assume you bet x on team A and y on the tie. Your outlay is x+y. Since you want to break even in the case of a tie you need
x+y = y + 5y or x=5y in other words you should bet 1/5 of your bet on team A on the tie.
Now, let's figure the effective ML for A. If A wins you have bet 1.2x but you get paid x*100/350. Putting this figure in the basic ML equation we get

return = risk * 100 /ML (basic equation when ML is negative)
x*100/350 = 120 * x / EFFECTIVE ML

Eliminating the x from bothe sides leaves

100/350 = 120 / Effecive ML

so, effective ML = 350 *120 / 100 or -420 in your case.
It seems from the formulas above that in the general case where you are betting on the favorite at -odds and the tie ML is TML assuming that TML is a positive number the effective ML you are getting is the
actual ML * (1+100/TML)

I don't think so, Bill, that would give you a +572/ -420 scalp between Pinny/ CRIS, both sets of odds had a theoretical hold using Pinny's multi-way calculator. I believe you are doing something wrong !

Dante · Jan 12, 2006

Doug....How does one cap swedish hockey?

billpapa · Jan 12, 2006

Doug, did you include the amount you would have to bet on the tie at Cris?

Doug · Jan 12, 2006

Dante said:
Doug....How does one cap swedish hockey?

I just follow the former poster here ( Steammaker) who now uses Blacklab at EOG, the guy is kind of ghostly, but picks Euro hockey very nicely.

Doug · Jan 12, 2006

billpapa said:
Doug, did you include the amount you would have to bet on the tie at Cris?

No, I didn't try to figure it out, was looking for a calculator, I'm sure Pinny had the better line. Dog won 3-2.

Woody0 · Jan 12, 2006

Doug, I'm really surprised after all the posts about synthetic -1's in baseball and hockey that you have this question.

Quantumleap made a definitive post 3 days ago on converting American style to European style odds and vice versa in the following thread:

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=338828

Doug · Jan 12, 2006

Woody0 said:
Doug, I'm really surprised after all the posts about synthetic -1's in baseball and hockey that you have this question.

Quantumleap made a definitive post 3 days ago on converting American style to European style odds and vice versa in the following thread:

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=338828

I didn't feel like thinking it through yesterday, figured it was a good mental problem for the board to figure out, vanzak nailed it with the answer of -1400 ML at CRIS by playing the -350, and +500 lines, it doesn't seem it should go up that much but I don't see any error in the way he arrived at the answer. The -420 answer is wrong.

billpapa · Jan 13, 2006

Hey, Vanzack I believe you misread Doug's question. He asked what is the effective money line you get on the bet on team A to win. He wants to make an additional bet on the tie so that if the match ends in a tie he breaks even. Your calculations assume that he wanted to win the same amount whether team A wins or there is a tie. Two different situations. I believe the correct solution is what was posted by drunkguy and me.