One more middle question (fishhead/others)

Iceman · Jan 12, 2006

When using you're 6.7 cents a half point "system". What is the better play if you have the choice of the same NBA game.
Bet 1: team A -4 -115 with Team B +6 -110 or
Bet 2: team A -4.5 -105 with Team B +6 -110
Both bets fall under the "paramaters" of 6.7 cents a half a point but Bet B seems to have more "value".
I think I would take Bet A because it gives you another number to win the bet and it still falls within the parametrs but it gives you less for your money.
Is it more important to get as many #'s for under 6.7 cents or bet the one that "offers more for your money"(bet b). I hope I explained this right. I ran across something like this last nite and was just curious.

Fishhead · Jan 12, 2006

The SECOND one is better in my opinion.

In your first example you are spendig 25 cents for 4 half points which equates to 6.25 cents per half.

In the 2ND example one is only spending 15 cents for 3 half points which equates to only 5 cents per half.

Now if the above example revolved around the numbers 2 or 7, that would put a different spin on it and make it more appealing.

By the way, here is a list of my PERSONAL list of KEY numbers in the NBA broken down in sections......

7
2

5
6
8

3
4
9
1

If you do a search, you may find where I have written detailed information on this subject over and over.

Continued success ICEMAN, like your dedication sir!!

-FISH-

D2bets · Jan 12, 2006

In comparing the two sets of plays, in Bet A you are paying 10 extra cents vig for a half point. That is beyond your 6.7 cents rule of thumb. Bet B is better.

Fishhead · Jan 12, 2006

D2bets said:
In comparing the two sets of plays, in Bet A you are paying 10 extra cents vig for a half point. That is beyond your 6.7 cents rule of thumb. Bet B is better.

6.25 I believe, unless im looking at it incorrectly.

6.25 in first example, 5.00 in the second example.

D2bets · Jan 12, 2006

Fishhead said:
6.25 I believe, unless im looking at it incorrectly.

6.25 in first example, 5.00 in the second example.

Yeah, I mean the difference between -4-115 and -4.5-105 is 10 cents for a half point.

Budworth22 · Jan 12, 2006

B, clearly.

Fishhead · Jan 12, 2006

D2bets said:
Yeah, I mean the difference between -4-115 and -4.5-105 is 10 cents for a half point.

GOTCHA!

assassin · Jan 12, 2006

Remember, that middling is a long term +EV approach, meaning you may not hit any for a while. If you stick with it, you can certainly make some coin. Scalping was always easier for me than middling.

If you are going to middle, check out some of the books that offer the free half point (Skybook, always $300 max now) on specific days. This will help you find more profitable ones as well.

GL

Fishhead · Jan 12, 2006

assassin said:
Remember, that middling is a long term +EV approach, meaning you may not hit any for a while. If you stick with it, you can certainly make some coin. Scalping was always easier for me than middling.

If you are going to middle, check out some of the books that offer the free half point (Skybook, always $300 max now) on specific days. This will help you find more profitable ones as well.

GL

Free half points, low vig, and sports exchanges are three musts!

Iceman · Jan 12, 2006

I totally understand the math(paying more for more points) but I just wonder if it's better to "make the middle larger", giving you more hits. If that is the case than a 1/2 point middle (hitting a side) at say -5.5 +109 with -6 -110 is the best case scenario (if available), just seems I am running into some situations like these everynight. I know that hitting the side is almost a free shot but don't like having only 1 number going for me

Fishhead · Jan 12, 2006

ice man said:
I totally understand the math(paying more for more points) but I just wonder if it's better to "make the middle larger", giving you more hits. If that is the case than a 1/2 point middle (hitting a side) at say -5.5 +109 with -6 -110 is the best case scenario (if available), just seems I am running into some situations like these everynight. I know that hitting the side is almost a free shot but don't like having only 1 number going for me

Totally understand what your saying, but one has to stick with the math.

Doug · Jan 12, 2006

The points become more valuable when you get more of them, though.

GSW and Phx are lined at Phx -8.5, GSW +345 ML

If you could get as many half points as you wanted for 10 cents each, you could play GSW +345, and buy 16 half points on PHX for $1.60, giving you Phx -.5 -270, a nice scalp !, books stop selling half points after about 6 of them, or charge a lot more after that point ( Olympic).

Iceman · Jan 12, 2006

that is kinda my point is that "aren't points more valuable (as long as the fall in the lines of a good middle)"

Fishhead · Jan 12, 2006

ice man said:
that is kinda my point is that "aren't points more valuable (as long as the fall in the lines of a good middle)"

YES.......but at what cost.

That is what one has to determine.

In your case scenario there was a 1.25 cent differential on the two.............and think that probably is to much(in fact, it has to be), especially on the number FOUR.

One can figure this out by crunching numbers and getting a fairly good idea.

Currently I am not up to it...........DOUG, D2, SPORTSAVANT????

:modemman:

Iceman · Jan 12, 2006

Fish,
Before you told me the 6.7 cent rule, I put together some charts (which I'm still using with your #'s) to tell me what the best middle would be (1/2 pt,1 pt, 1.5 pt,etc,etc). When the games came out and I compared what my options were, the chart kept going back to the 1/2 point middle with real high +juice(no risk) as the best choice. I guess that is my dillema. Patience with no risk and hit a side over more hits but more juice paid (which adds up)

Doug · Jan 12, 2006

If anyone has a local that sells unlimited points at 20 cents per full point, you can kill the guy by buying tons of points on favs. I'm not set up with the data to analyze this, I'd play the smaller ( cheaper) middle here because that half point appears to cost too much.

Fishhead · Jan 12, 2006

ice man said:
Fish,
Before you told me the 6.7 cent rule, I put together some charts (which I'm still using with your #'s) to tell me what the best middle would be (1/2 pt,1 pt, 1.5 pt,etc,etc). When the games came out and I compared what my options were, the chart kept going back to the 1/2 point middle with real high +juice(no risk) as the best choice. I guess that is my dillema. Patience with no risk and hit a side over more hits but more juice paid (which adds up)

Well, you are paying LESS than 6.5 cents in EACH scenario..........so you cannot go wrong with either.

Maybe do both?

Iceman · Jan 12, 2006

Probably no real wrong answer. Just thought I would ask how you would do it. Not to jinx myself but I am up over $700 dollars (betting $200 a side) in 3 weeks, so I must be doing something right? Just trying to get a better feel for all of this. Thanks

nimue77 · Jan 12, 2006

B is better is you can't do both.

ice man said:
When using you're 6.7 cents a half point "system". What is the better play if you have the choice of the same NBA game.
Bet 1: team A -4 -115 with Team B +6 -110 or
Bet 2: team A -4.5 -105 with Team B +6 -110
Both bets fall under the "paramaters" of 6.7 cents a half a point but Bet B seems to have more "value".
I think I would take Bet A because it gives you another number to win the bet and it still falls within the parametrs but it gives you less for your money.
Is it more important to get as many #'s for under 6.7 cents or bet the one that "offers more for your money"(bet b). I hope I explained this right. I ran across something like this last nite and was just curious.

Woody0 · Jan 12, 2006

Real example I had. Which of these options would you take (NBA).

Team A +2, +104 or Team A +1.5, +111 or Team A +1, +117

Team B -1, -110.

Will let you know my choice after your opinions.

BTW does the 6.7 cents also apply to NCAAB and if not is there an accepted figure?