Could this be profitable?

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Rx Wizard
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Now I know that a 1pt middle -110 is not a winning situation long term. But I was wondering if you tried to go a little heavier on the weak side of this bet would the extra half point win you more (with middle chance) than lose you long term? For example Chicago +4 for $120 with Detroit -3 for $100 (both -110 juice). The consenus line is -3/-3.5. I have been betting steam versus local at 7:00 pm(est) with lines he gave me at 6:30(est) and getting a 1 1/2 pt middle or two a night. I am trying to throw a few extra "picks" his way to help disguise what I am doing, would this particular bet be "breakeven" long term, something to keep me honest and confused in his eyes. Trying to throw the guy off a little bit.
I guess the question is how much does a extra half point help your win pct in hoops? I imagine not much or Skybook would be going under.
 

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IN CBB, if you have an ADVANTAGE middle, it is always wiser to have more on the steamed move.

In the NBA, more so than not too, as you are wagering a bad number first a high majority of the time.

For example, if your betting at XXXX book first taking a bad number, than coming back with a wager at Pinnacle..........bet LESS at PINNY.
 

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In fact, many will argue to just ignore the middle and play the steam by itself and you will profit more.

To each his or her own.............find your own niche.
 

Rx Wizard
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so your example is for the NBA but complete opposite for rule would apply for NCAA. I think with 1 pt middle (-110) being a losing play longterm that maybe a litte extra "on the right side", would make this a breakeven bet. I am going to have to try this. I'm sure the edge is so small it wouldn't do much either way in the long run.
 

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