Is this a good soccer bet ?

Doug · Jan 18, 2006

Italian. Total on game is 3, juice about equal for over or under.Asian cap.

Ascoli +2 -112 Pinny

Milan -1.5 and -2 -120 at Mansion. Half your bet is at -1.5, half at -2, is how Asian cap works.

If Milan wins by two you'd push at Pinny and win half your bet at Mansion, anything else loses juice. With a total of 3, a 2 goal victory seems likely.

I'm not too experienced with soccer, how's this sound ?

Santo · Jan 18, 2006

2.5/3 is the standard total... I wouldn't pay 32 cents for half a goal, but haven't done the math myself to say whether it's +EV or not.

quantumleap · Jan 18, 2006

If you balance your bets out you would lose 14 cents per bet if Milan does not win by 2. That's 1 in 7. If Milan wins by 2 you win 0.42 units. In order for a bet like this to come out even you would have to have Milan win by 2 twice for every 7 times this does not happen.

The odds of this happening really depend upon the 2 teams. The idea of a 2-goal win by Milan is not necessarily a good bet because of the o/u of 3. Milan is typically a much better team than Ascioli and the line may be at 3 due to the likelihood of Milan winning by 3-0, especially at home.

JMHO.

quantumleap · Jan 18, 2006

Now that I look at it, the over 3 looks like a good bet. AC Milan has hit 3 or over for a total in 10 out of their last 11 matches, with their last match at Roma being the exception at 1-0. In fact, 5 out of their last 6 home matches have gone over 3.

Good luck.

the_snowkid · Jan 18, 2006

i'm trying to figue out this soccer stuff, this is by a capper in the soccer forum:

Picks #473
Date: 18.01.06
League: Italy I
Event: Milan - Ascoli
Pick: Ascoli (+2) @1.86
Stake: 10

i get the +2, but what is 1.86? what are some good shops for soccer?

golfingarkansas · Jan 18, 2006

i just took ascoli plus 550 for a draw! I see a 1-1 match, good luck ga

Santo · Jan 18, 2006

1.86 is the odds... We use decimal odds rather than "American" odds.

Betfair are good if you're not in America, if you are, most of the best shops are off-limit - stick to Pinnacle.

the_snowkid · Jan 18, 2006

another example:

Picks #474
Date: 18.01.06
League: Italy I
Event: Palermo - Parma
Pick: Parma (+0.75) @1.91
Stake: 10

vs. what the greek has:

palmero -.5 -143
parma +.5 +125

is there a diff between +.75 and +.5 since there are no half points in soccer?

the_snowkid · Jan 18, 2006

Santo said:
1.86 is the odds... We use decimal odds rather than "American" odds.

Betfair are good if you're not in America, if you are, most of the best shops are off-limit - stick to Pinnacle.

ty, so what would 1.86 be in american style :suomi:

Santo · Jan 18, 2006

EU 1.86 = UK 6/7 = US -116.67

http://www.drpunter.com/tools/oddsconv.php

Doug · Jan 18, 2006

-117.72

http://www.betcalc.com/oddsconverter.php

So odds are better than Imeq quoted, -112 Pinny

Santo · Jan 18, 2006

.75 is probably a typo, nowhere offers that.

the_snowkid · Jan 18, 2006

Picks #474
Date: 18.01.06
League: Italy I
Event: Palermo - Parma
Pick: Parma (+0.75) @1.91
Stake: 10

so this would be parma +.75 goals at (-110)?

Doug · Jan 18, 2006

.75 is +.5 and +1 Asian

the_snowkid · Jan 18, 2006

DougJ said:
.75 is +.5 and +1 Asian

:monsters-

golfingarkansas · Jan 18, 2006

http://www.prematches.com/

this is the best soccer site i have found. I use this site all teh time and it
did pretty good in 05

Doug · Jan 18, 2006

the_snowman said:
Picks #474
Date: 18.01.06
League: Italy I
Event: Palermo - Parma
Pick: Parma (+0.75) @1.91
Stake: 10

so this would be parma +.75 goals at (-110)?

Yes, it's +.5 and +1 at -110, available -105 last I looked. Half the bet is +.5, half at +1

the_snowkid · Jan 18, 2006

DougJ said:
Yes, it's +.5 and +1 at -110, available -105 last I looked. Half the bet is +.5, half at +1

ok so if i bet 100, 50 would be at +5 and 50 at +1?

Doug · Jan 18, 2006

yes ! but .5 not 5. If Parma loses by one, you'd get a push on 50, and lose 50, if risking $100

Santo · Jan 18, 2006

DougJ said:
Yes, it's +.5 and +1 at -110, available -105 last I looked. Half the bet is +.5, half at +1

Ah I see. Never seen that written +0.75, always +0.5 & +1

Is this a good soccer bet ?

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