Not saying I advocate this but I have done it a few times the last few days. Let me explain. Lets say for exampe 6 hours before tipoff you are screen watching at Don Best and checking lines elsewhere and see North Carolina who opened at -9 1/2 are now down to -8 +102 at Pinnacle(best line availbile) so you take a lead with them thinking they have hit rock bottom price(line has moved quite a bit from opening line, slowly but has moved a few points) and than wait for buyback with Wake Forest at +9 or higher -110(1 point middle with plus juice is a winning play). Let's say you screen watch most of the day and the line never goes up past +8 1/2 before tipoff, but just hovers around the -8/-8.5 range (not enough for a middle). Do you ever just keep the -8 +102 (best price all day) thinking in the long run these wagers will win you money because you bought at the best price all day when in reality you never had an opinion on the game. I know this can be dangerous but do some of you more expierenced guys do this. I have and will only do this for $50 wagers but I feel like I grabbed the best price and in the end if I end up with the best price I should show a small profit in the long run.I know this won't work every time but maybe opens up a few middles and wins you over 52% of your one sided wagers. It is something I am tinkering with and I know it involves screen watching ALL DAY but I think it can work. Good idea or not?
Doug,
Do you ever take leads, if so how do you do it? This is the way i sort of been practicing doing them. Not sure it will be profitiable, going to keep track of it. Hopefully hit more than I miss. I think you have to have an idea what your strike price is on the buyback and fire when you get it or bet when you feel the numbers is going the wrong way. Still kind of tricky and like I said it involves screen watching.
Do you ever take leads, if so how do you do it? This is the way i sort of been practicing doing them. Not sure it will be profitiable, going to keep track of it. Hopefully hit more than I miss. I think you have to have an idea what your strike price is on the buyback and fire when you get it or bet when you feel the numbers is going the wrong way. Still kind of tricky and like I said it involves screen watching.
I do take leads but not in college. Regular season NFL was pretty easy to predict which way line would move on Sun late game and MNF. I can tell with bases which way it will go.
NBA key seems to watch the moves early they tend to continue, helps if a spreadbeater or blacklab type also throws it out early, they're often correct and get some early money coming on your side. Just how you think the public will react ( NBA) to certain lines, can be used, but I prefer any lead to be the side I want more of. I wouldn't want a big position I disliked banking on buying the good side for more after a line move in NBA, NBA is strange. I'll trust bases or NFL more forecasting.
NBA key seems to watch the moves early they tend to continue, helps if a spreadbeater or blacklab type also throws it out early, they're often correct and get some early money coming on your side. Just how you think the public will react ( NBA) to certain lines, can be used, but I prefer any lead to be the side I want more of. I wouldn't want a big position I disliked banking on buying the good side for more after a line move in NBA, NBA is strange. I'll trust bases or NFL more forecasting.
Will keep my I eye on your NBA idea. I think a big thing is if you see that a low vig or skybook has a game a little better than the rest of the books it may be a good lead. What I mean is I looked at the opener for NBA today and San Antonio has went up to 7.5 at alot of places and Pinnacle has them at -7 -101, not saying that Pinnacle is wrong but offers the best line at very reduced juice (good lead spot) if favorite continues to go up from opener with free half point +8 -110 is a playable middle and it could go up to 8.5/9 and with -101 juice(lead side) that is a great play. I feel I have time to "catch" the number if it goes back my way if I continue to keep my eye on screen because I bought at the best price (-7 -101), my room for error is larger than most.DougJ said:
Ok here is another example of one I found today. Seen the opening line with Cincinnatti/Rutgers opened Cincy -10. Line slowly moved down to -8.5 -101 at Pinnacle. Picked some up looking for bounce back. The line steamed to +9.5 and with skybook free half point I got +10 -110. So I have a 1.5 point middle and paid 11 cents juice for it.Basically felt Cincy had hit rock bottom and betting that price would gradually go back up.Like I said not something that I'm doing alot of but something I am messing with(small plays).
(The NBA play I did yesterday was trying to follow Doug's example of lines gradually going in one direction, got slightly burned and ate some juice, that example wasn't the topic of this thread.)
(The NBA play I did yesterday was trying to follow Doug's example of lines gradually going in one direction, got slightly burned and ate some juice, that example wasn't the topic of this thread.)
