I feel so confident fading the public.

jasin4000 · Jan 22, 2006

I just started to do this a lot! Of course SLIM gives us the big updates, but I have been going onto wagerline and fading 1 or 2 games of the highest percent on a team.(just for basketball, I use ace-ace for football, and my own picks :103631605

recently:

SD +5 vs zaga
St johns ML vs louisville
Toronto +7.5 tonight vs LA

Just seems like I feel really good about my picks when i fade

your thoughts?

Kojak · Jan 22, 2006

I was on all 3 of those games as well.

Journeyman · Jan 22, 2006

Jasin just don't go overboard with the amounts , keep them all at no more than 2%, I know you have been on a nice roll....keep it up, and remember if you faded the public in the NFL this year it would have been a rough year.

jasin4000 · Jan 22, 2006

Journeyman said:
Jasin just don't go overboard with the amounts , keep them all at no more than 2%, I know you have been on a nice roll....keep it up, and remember if you faded the public in the NFL this year it would have been a rough year.

Very True about everything you said JM. In the last month I really tried to have some good money management....so far so good. But like is it out of the question if you REALLY like a game to put like 7-10% of you BR on a game?

Budworth22 · Jan 23, 2006

Journeyman said:
Jasin just don't go overboard with the amounts , keep them all at no more than 2%, I know you have been on a nice roll....keep it up, and remember if you faded the public in the NFL this year it would have been a rough year.

Thats true JMAN. Look at it as a long range projection, and offset the juice by scalping and middling.

Budworth22 · Jan 23, 2006

jasin4000 said:
Very True about everything you said JM. In the last month I really tried to have some good money management....so far so good. But like is it out of the question if you REALLY like a game to put like 7-10% of you BR on a game?

Jasin...fuck yes. I won't exceed 4%. Ever. If I would use a unitized system, it would be 1-2-4% (Each play 2x as good as the former, etc.) Much less complicated to stick with flat betting, and increase your bet amount at 20% Intervals.

Using units system, and trying to win, is like learning to drive a stick-ferarri in rush hour traffic in NYC, you just won't get the hang of it, too much going on, waaay too much noise.

HinesWard86 · Jan 23, 2006

I disagree Bud, I like using a unit system. In fact, that's the reason I had a winning year in CFB. I went 43-43-2, and finished up 10 units because I put more on plays I liked more.

Budworth22 · Jan 23, 2006

HinesWard86 said:
I disagree Bud, I like using a unit system. In fact, that's the reason I had a winning year in CFB. I went 43-43-2, and finished up 10 units because I put more on plays I liked more.

Very easy to get in trouble using a unit system. Most people do not have a grasp on which plays are actually better. Poster "Christian" has written many times about this. I'll say that if you were keeping track of plays for roughly 1000 plays, and noticed that you had a signifigant edge in plays that you had noted as "bigger", then yes it would be justified. How many can say that they have 1000, or say 500 football plays to really be able to judge that. If your lesser plays suck, then drop them, and increase the size of your flat wager is another scenario I could see. Unitized betting also is more conducive to chasing.

We both can agree that betting anything over 4% on a game is lunacy, unless your intention is to hedge it later, etc.

PatrickMcIrish · Jan 23, 2006

If you are putting 10% of BR at risk on any one play you won't be in this business long. I don't care who you are or how much edge you think you have, that's too much exposure.

Journeyman · Jan 23, 2006

jasin4000 said:
Very True about everything you said JM. In the last month I really tried to have some good money management....so far so good. But like is it out of the question if you REALLY like a game to put like 7-10% of you BR on a game?

Absolutely not!

You will be toast by april or sooner ...listen to those in this thread, especially since you have recently made a lot of money relatively speaking.

This is a long grind, the sooner you realize this the less money you will lose...and I would be willing to bet even after you read this you will more than likely still bet 10% on one game, and when that loses, you won't cut back, this is where so many get into trouble...then a month later you wish you were betting 1-2% like what was recommended.

jasin4000 · Jan 23, 2006

Journeyman said:
Absolutely not!

You will be toast by april or sooner ...listen to those in this thread, especially since you have recently made a lot of money relatively speaking.

This is a long grind, the sooner you realize this the less money you will lose...and I would be willing to bet even after you read this you will more than likely still bet 10% on one game, and when that loses, you won't cut back, this is where so many get into trouble...then a month later you wish you were betting 1-2% like what was recommended.

ok i gotcha now.