SUPERBOWL a solid -4 now...........where at kickoff?

Fishhead · Jan 24, 2006

Believe this is ONE SOLID NUMBER now.

We shall see, but will go out on a minor limb and say this will be the number at kickoff at the majority of shops........with a few shops at -4.5 too.

Anybody here on the same limb?

-FISH-

ps- Certainly do not see this going any LOWER, only UP if anything from this point on..........unless of course we run into suspensions and/or injuries.

maxdemo · Jan 24, 2006

I love Seattle +4 or higher...I dont see it going to -5...JMO

JimmyHoffa · Jan 24, 2006

Pitt -3 1/2 -105 still available at Matchbook...

ClipJoint · Jan 24, 2006

maxdemo said:
I love Seattle +4 or higher...I dont see it going to -5...JMO

Not a big difference in 4.5 and 5.

D2bets · Jan 24, 2006

I agree. I don't think it moves much. Might see some "square shops" move to 4.5, maybe even up to 5.5, but that's all. Don't think anyone will get less than 3.5 or more than 5.5 without buying or paying heavy juice.

mgk222 · Jan 24, 2006

Forget about the spread,just pick the team you think wins..Spread does not matter much in football...Just my 2 cents...

Insiders · Jan 24, 2006

Probably will be there at post time as there will be 2-way to this game. -3.5 4 or -4.5 will be the number. Now this total a Much different story as i see it going up maybe to 49 at post time.

D2bets · Jan 24, 2006

mgk222 said:
Forget about the spread,just pick the team you think wins..Spread does not matter much in football...Just my 2 cents...

I seem to remember hearing (and fortunately ignoring) that same mantra for the 2004 and 2005 Super Bowls.

D2bets · Jan 24, 2006

In fact, the pointspread has mattered in 5 of the last 9 Super Bowls. The dog has lost but covered (or pushed) in 5 of the last 9. Seems like spread matters plenty.

Fishhead · Jan 24, 2006

D2bets said:
In fact, the pointspread has mattered in 5 of the last 9 Super Bowls.

Interesting.........thanks.

Akillies · Jan 24, 2006

S/B favorites always inflated
Pitt is a very public team
Not much resistance from 4- till 6

I think it goes higher

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Jan 24, 2006

Considering Pinny has been stuck on a high 3 1/2 for a day or so would hardly say solid 4. Closer to solid 3 3/4. Like D2 said, the old Wantitall argument just take the team is a recipe for disaster in the Super Bowl. It has evolved from blowouts to nailbiters. The spread is a huge value in this situation. This game is as close as any. Polls, which in this game are a decent indicator shows casual fans 2-1 on Pitt. But their $10 bet will not matter much. I think big money will wait on the sidelines, just like they did with Seattle game, watched it bottom, and came in hard right before post. Or their could be a standing order for + 4 1/2. Lot of speculation. However, one thing for certain, Pitt has least twice the following and 10 times the post season history as Seattle.

Best Wishes...OF :103631605

But so did the Pats vs. Caro, and the Raiders vs. Tampa.

Woody0 · Jan 24, 2006

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Considering Pinny has been stuck on a high 3 1/2 for a day or so would hardly say solid 4. Closer to solid 3 3/4.

Pinny is showing +3.5/+102; -3.5/-110 and on the drop down menu +4/-108; -4/-105.

Since they choose to display 3.5 as their default number I think it is simply part of the strategy that Pinny plays. They make Seattle look more attractive with the + number and I believe are attracting Seattle bets while their 4 offering if used as the default would be attracting Pittsburg bets. In addition their 4 offering brings in 13 cents, while they can still advertise and offer an 8 cent line. Very smart, but then we all know that.

At the current line they would like to book Pittsburg -4 and Seattle +3.5 by switching between these two default lines so that they make their juice and get the chance of a side should the game land on 4. Expect them to make this move to 4 as the juice changes.

D2bets · Jan 24, 2006

Woody0 said:
Pinny is showing +3.5/+102; -3.5/-110 and on the drop down menu +4/-108; -4/-105.

Since they choose to display 3.5 as their default number I think it is simply part of the strategy that Pinny plays. They make Seattle look more attractive with the + number and I believe are attracting Seattle bets while their 4 offering if used as the default would be attracting Pittsburg bets. In addition their 4 offering brings in 13 cents, while they can still advertise and offer an 8 cent line. Very smart, but then we all know that.

At the current line they would like to book Pittsburg -4 and Seattle +3.5 by switching between these two default lines so that they make their juice and get the chance of a side should the game land on 4. Expect them to make this move to 4 as the juice changes.

Sharp post. Think they're also trying to make it more difficult to tease Seattle up.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Jan 24, 2006

The roll off of 3 1/2 to 4 is huge for teasers, and Pinny shows the jump from 3 1/2 to 4 is not a huge one. That is the reason I use the Pinny line, it is sharp as hell, and if anyone was going to take a large stand, that is where they would start. All this trickling is nothing more than overanxious bettors wanting the game played tomorrow. Two weeks for a line of this magnitude is an eternity. Right now the real line is -3 1/2 -.15 or -4 -.05. Just about what it opened at...This thread could be 15 pages before the game goes.

Best Wishes...OF :103631605

David1 · Jan 24, 2006

Thanks Frog, your opinion is so valued. (NOT)

TheScientist · Jan 24, 2006

You will see this go to 5, and to 4 1/2 laying price (same number really), and the public will eat it all the way. Until an indicator hits seattle it wont go back.

For the next 10 days the world will see a million reruns of pittsburgh superbowl triumphs... with nothing to watch from the seattle end.

patswin · Jan 24, 2006

Still at -3.5 -104 at Mansion too

WildBill · Jan 24, 2006

I think 5.5 is very possible with 5 being considered near dead.

D2bets · Jan 24, 2006

WildBill said:
I think 5.5 is very possible with 5 being considered near dead.

Yeah I'd rather have +4.5 at + money.

SUPERBOWL a solid -4 now...........where at kickoff?

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