Does the public allways like FAVS??

Or can a line be so good on a dog bettors are all over the dog??

example -- fav should be a 10 pt fav but the public likes the dog so much the line is -5.

OR can the action ever be 80% dog 20% fav, in certains markets of course.

How can we differentiate these occurances.

I ask because the last 4 Super Bowls with Eagles, Panthers, Bucs and PATS covering all were good for books and the PUB liked the fav. 5 years ago the Wild Card Ravens 40-1 to start the season won as a 3 pt fav, but the I don't think the books were too heavy in Raven Action vs the NEW YORK team.

I think the majority of the public plays favorites...

I don't think the public will ALWAYS like the favorite, at least not in your everyday sporting events. You hit on part of it when you mentioned New York, there are public teams that often are bet up regardless if they are the favorite or the dog. Duke in hoops, Yankees in baseball, the old Cowboys that were "America's team". Lot of these sort of public teams get shaded when the numbers are hung no matter if they are the chalk or the dog because books know they have a large betting audience.

With local or regional books obviously you get heavy action on the local team regardless if they are the favorite or not. Back in the days when books moved on action rather than air you could always find great value for instance in the New York area betting against the Jets with your locals. Same with most metro areas where they had a team. These days I am sure it has changed, everything else has in this business but those were the days. Anyway as for the topic I do think for the most part the public is going to bet the favorites, especially in a SuperBowl, but would stop short from saying they will ALWAYS take the chalk.

most public like the overs as well.

I'd say usually they like the favorites, and occasionally the public's favorite happens to be an underdog. Wasn't the public on the Panthers vs the Seahawks?

Last week's Sea vs Car game opened at 6 and dropped to 3- till just before game time and then steamed back up. But the majority of squares like the faves in the NFL. That's why it was a crappy year for the books during most of the season when the faves were covering at almost 60%.

John Q Public knows nothing but give me the Favorite and the Over. Works too, sometimes. The NFL was just crushed this year by the chalks, and the monday and sunday night games the Fav and Over were certainly the right side all year long.

It would be a very RARE occurrence for the public to like the dog in the Super Bowl. It's a sel-fulfulling prophecy really. The "public", as it is comprised for Super Bowls, doesn't even blink at spreads. They just pick the team they think will win. And they generally think the team that they are told will win, will win.

I suppose it is theortecially possible for a team that has to be the underdog numbers-wise also gets all the media hype and so the public likes them. It would be a very rare occurence in a Super Bowl.

And then the line itself reinforces the public's perception by making the line even higher then it should be leading the public to think they really are the much superior team. After all, Vegas knows more than them.