BIG tennis scalp at pinny

jestein · Jan 27, 2006

henin-hardenne -218 to win match
mauresmo to win 2-0 +538
mauresmo to win 2-1 +458

potential 1000 dollar scalp with 1000 max bet.

enjoy.

Note: read tennis rules if player retires set betting is void. So its not a pure no-risk scalp.

Doug · Jan 27, 2006

doesn't work, putting those numbers in the calculator has a hold for Pinny.

2.1 % HOLD

JamesHunt · Jan 27, 2006

Your calculator needs a new battery I think.

steeser · Jan 27, 2006

I think the risk of a player retiring is lower being the final of a Grand Slam event.

Doug · Jan 27, 2006

JamesHunt said:
Your calculator needs a new battery I think.

I see what I did wrong. I calculated it like 3-way soccer. I have to think this one through. Sounds like a bad line they'll cancel.

Doug · Jan 27, 2006

How much do you bet on each ? Only one can win, Pinny calculator says there is a hold, I don't see scalp, seems like 3-way soccer to me.

steeser · Jan 27, 2006

jestein said:
henin-hardenne -218 to win match
mauresmo to win 2-0 +538
mauresmo to win 2-1 +458

potential 1000 dollar scalp with 1000 max bet.

enjoy.

Note: read tennis rules if player retires set betting is void. So its not a pure no-risk scalp.

Just as an example:

1000 on Henin at -218
500 on Bulldyke at +538
500 on Bulldyke at +458

Profit if Bulldyke wins, even if Henin wins....unless Henin retires, then you have a 1K loss.

Doug · Jan 27, 2006

steeser said:
Just as an example:

1000 on Henin at -218
500 on Bulldyke at +538
500 on Bulldyke at +458

Profit if Bulldyke wins, even if Henin wins....unless Henin retires, then you have a 1K loss.

If Henin wins you win $458, but lose $1000.

jestein · Jan 27, 2006

no no no.

Originally Posted by jestein
henin-hardenne -218 to win match
mauresmo to win 2-0 +538
mauresmo to win 2-1 +458

4360 on henin to win 2000
1000 on mauresmo 2-0 to win 5380
1000 on mauresmo 2-1 to win 4580

If henin wins break even
if mauresmo wins 2-0 win 1020
if mauresmo wins 2-1 win 220

someone already bet it so some of the value is out, but there is still a scalp there.

steeser · Jan 27, 2006

DougJ said:
If Henin wins you win $458, but lose $1000.

I was using 1000 as the base bet...meaning risking 2180.

Doug · Jan 27, 2006

jestein said:
no no no.

Originally Posted by jestein
henin-hardenne -218 to win match
mauresmo to win 2-0 +538
mauresmo to win 2-1 +458

4360 on henin to win 2000
1000 on mauresmo 2-0 to win 5380
1000 on mauresmo 2-1 to win 4580

If henin wins break even
if mauresmo wins 2-0 win 1020
if mauresmo wins 2-1 win 220

someone already bet it so some of the value is out, but there is still a scalp there.

That makes sense, what I don't get is why Pinny's calculator says there is hold of 2.1 %.

monicus · Jan 27, 2006

This is not a scalp.

If Mar. wins 2-1 then you will lose the Mar. 2-0 bet and vica-versa.

So the real profit line will be if:
Henin even
Mar. 2-1 -780
Mar 2-0 20

trytrytry · Jan 27, 2006

this is not a great deal at all. Pinny would not do that wrong.

Journeyman · Jan 27, 2006

Doesn't look like a scalp at all...what am I missing?

Doug · Jan 27, 2006

monicus said:
This is not a scalp.

If Mar. wins 2-1 then you will lose the Mar. 2-0 bet and vica-versa.

So the real profit line will be if:
Henin even
Mar. 2-1 -780
Mar 2-0 20

Yep, I knew something was wrong here, the calculator doesn't lie, and Pinny doesn't make many misteaks.

jestein · Jan 27, 2006

omg, i messed this one up big time. I forgot that winning 2-0 means losing 2-1.

Sorry to anyone that followed this. I don't usually bet tennis and totally goofed on this one. I will promise to be more careful next time I post something like this. Again, I am really really sorry.

Doug · Jan 27, 2006

That's OK, bro ! First thing to do is check it with the calculator, I knew something wasn't right, the brain is just running slow at the moment.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Jan 27, 2006

jestein said:
omg, i messed this one up big time. I forgot that winning 2-0 means losing 2-1.

Sorry to anyone that followed this. I don't usually bet tennis and totally goofed on this one. I will promise to be more careful next time I post something like this. Again, I am really really sorry.

You idiot! I am maxxed out on everything, now what?

Just kidding.

Best Wishes...OF :103631605

Woody0 · Jan 27, 2006

DougJ said:
I see what I did wrong. I calculated it like 3-way soccer.

Doug you were right the first time. Its a 3 way outcome, like soccer, only one of which will be true and the other two will be false.

The hold you calculated, 2.149%, was correct.

Woody0 · Jan 27, 2006

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
You idiot! I am maxxed out on everything, now what?

No problem. The loss on $20,000 action (tier 2 account) will only be $430 barely the price of a box of fine cigars. :103631605

BIG tennis scalp at pinny

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