Decent side shot or not ?

Doug · Feb 1, 2006

NBA Q1 Phx/ Bos over 52 -110 at Pinny , under 53 -110 elsewhere ? I like the over better, line moved 6 cents after I hit Pinny for a nickel on it. Looks good to me being a quarter line.

Any thoughts ?

cincy_ · Feb 1, 2006

DougJ said:
NBA Q1 Phx/ Bos over 52 -110 at Pinny , under 53 -110 elsewhere ? I like the over better, line moved 6 cents after I hit Pinny for a nickel on it. Looks good to me being a quarter line.

Any thoughts ?

That is a GREAT wager for a quarter line, IMO.

I would do it everytime.

nimue77 · Feb 1, 2006

Not sure that has a positive EV....I wouldn't bother.

DougJ said:
NBA Q1 Phx/ Bos over 52 -110 at Pinny , under 53 -110 elsewhere ? I like the over better, line moved 6 cents after I hit Pinny for a nickel on it. Looks good to me being a quarter line.

Any thoughts ?

Doug · Feb 1, 2006

My logic is the points are worth much more on a quarter, if I buy back any it will be about 30%- 40% of original position. My instinct is it's good at -110.

Doug · Feb 1, 2006

Under is at VIP, didn't move after I hit it.

cincy_ · Feb 1, 2006

If half a point is worth 5 cents on NBA totals, you're paying 10 cents per half point.

I would venture to guess that the standard deviation for quarter totals is AT LEAST half of the standard deviation of that for a full game.

So if 10 cents per point is a good deal in NBA totals, then 20 cents per point for quarters is a better deal.

Doug · Feb 1, 2006

I look at it like the half point is worth 15 cents ( guess) on a quarter total. If I went 550/500 on both, I'd be betting 50 for 500 that it lands on 52 or 53, seems reasonable, but I like the over part of it.

D2bets · Feb 1, 2006

I don't believe that O52-110/U53-110 quarter will make you money.

But I could be wrong.

nimue77 · Feb 1, 2006

I don't pay 5 cents for nba total sides.

cincy_ said:
If half a point is worth 5 cents on NBA totals, you're paying 10 cents per half point.

I would venture to guess that the standard deviation for quarter totals is AT LEAST half of the standard deviation of that for a full game.

So if 10 cents per point is a good deal in NBA totals, then 20 cents per point for quarters is a better deal.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Feb 1, 2006

Might work with reduced juice, but you never see that on the quarter lines. I do not shop those. To many stores kick up the 15 cents, where I am grinding 5 cents on other spots. Any value gained on the lower Q total is lost on the full juice. Hope it hits.

Best Wishes...OF :toast:

Doug · Feb 1, 2006

I wasn't looking for it, I just wanted Q1 over, then looked for a price. Phx seems to start fast then slow down, so I didn't want whole game over.

cincy_ · Feb 1, 2006

DougJ said:
I wasn't looking for it, I just wanted Q1 over, then looked for a price. Phx seems to start fast then slow down, so I didn't want whole game over.

I saw that trend too - but yesterday, they just kept scoring.

This being the 2nd of a b2b is an issue, of course.

Omni · Feb 1, 2006

I agree with frog, I would (and have) played some like that, but always at reduiced juice. NOT at -110.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Feb 1, 2006

Plus a little late to the party now total is at 206 going to 207. Now you get the late arriving public line.

Best Wishes...OF :103631605

I watched the Suns draw out two games, almost for no reason. They never let up.

Doug · Feb 1, 2006

I like to bet them Q3, and H2 when they lead at the half and are getting points.

cincy_ · Feb 1, 2006

The problem with today's over is the trade that the Celtics made - new teammates, new rotation etc.

Insiders · Feb 1, 2006

The wager has 2 ways to catch a "side" but NO way to the middle. One would think in this case that one must have one of these slighty longer than the other to outrun the Vig.. JMHO

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Feb 1, 2006

You have Suns 1H on a sweet 11-1 over run. But disclaimers galore as Celts output fell off the Earth after trade. Pierce and Wally have not looked comfortable playing together. Has Kandi played at all? They lost scoring on this trade, and I am leery of them being able to win a high scoring contest. Can't think Boston will want to play at Sun's tempo either. If I was forced to do anything besides pass, I would stick with the Sun 1H over run. I prefer 1H over 1Q as sometimes you get a lot of scoring right before the half, moreso than a quarter.

Best Wishes...OF :103631605

Doug · Feb 1, 2006

Insiders said:
The wager has 2 ways to catch a "side" but NO way to the middle. One would think in this case that one must have one of these slighty longer than the other to outrun the Vig.. JMHO

Would over 52.5 and under 53.5 be better than over 52 and under 53 ? Of course if 53 hits it is, but I think it has the same expectation in this case.

+9.5/ -7.5 gives full middle on 8 and 9. +9/ -7 gives a full middle and two sides. I think it's all worth about the same.

picasso · Feb 2, 2006

For NBA 1st quarter totals, I show a half point worth about 13 cents. So, I'd say you had a +EV middle attempt.

Decent side shot or not ?

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