A look at all of Fezzik's SB bets YTD-Interesting

Paterno · Feb 2, 2006

This came from his website. If anything, interesting to see what some of the professionals have on the game.

As requested, here is what I have pending:

AFC -3 (3) Jun 12
OVER 45 (4) Jan 17
PIT -170 and -175 (risk 10 on each.........will dump all of it, I'll be on Sea +5, and +5.5 later this week)
Last score not a TD 150 (2) (questionable bet)
More points 2nd half 110 (2)
Total TDS UND 5.5 140 (2)
Total TDS UND 5.5 125 (2)
Most FDS PIT +2.5, -140 (2) ho ho ho
SEA FDS UND 20.5, -125 (2)
Long Punt Return 15.5, +105 (2) (my worst bet of them all)
Team to have longest TD, PIT -115 (2)
PIT FDS OVER 18.5. -120 (2)
Pass Attempts by Ben OV 25.5, -115 (2)
Sea score before they punt twice +115 (2) ho ho ho
Sea score before they punt twice +100 (2)
Pit FGs OV 1.5 -100 (1)
Sea FGS OV 1.5 125 (1)
Alexander OVER 83.5 rush yds -115 (.5)
Gardocki PUNTS UND 4.5, 130 (2)
Parker UNDER 64 Rush yds -110 (2)
Bettis UNDER 43.5 rush yds -110 (2)............questionable bet, as I may get much better odds sunday
Rouen UNDER 5.5 punts, 100, (2)
First score TD -135 (.5)
Long FG UN 44.5 -110 (2)
Hasselbeck INT, Y, -160 (2)
Hasselback INT, Y, -150 (2)
Jackson long reception, UND 23.5, -110 (2)
Three Consecutive Scores? Yes -145 (.5)
1st Sack? Pitt. -100 (.5)
1st INT Hasselback +110 (.5)
Tot Kickoffs 10 OV -140 (.5)
Jackson Longest REC UN 23.5, -110 (.5)
More Completions, Hasselbeck -.5 -165 (.5)
Longest TD UND 42.5 -110 (.5)
Hasselbeck INT, YES, -160 (.5)
Long FG UND 43.5, +110, (.5)
Team to snap ball last, PIT, -120 (.5)
More INT's, Hasselbeck, +.5, -130 (.5)
More FDs, SEA 1.5, -120 (.5)
Sea to punt twice before they score, +160 (2)
Jackson, longest REC OVER 19.5, -115, (2)
Longest TD, UN 42.5 -115, (2)
Alexander rush yds -14.5 vs. Michelson 4th rd score (2)
First TD scored after 28 minute mark, 100-1, (.2)
J Reed points +3.5, -115 vs. PHL SHots on Goal, 2nd period (2)
Morris R+R yds -1/2, -115 vs. MON Shots on Gol, 2st period (2)
Sacks -1/2, -130, vs. Phl GOALS (2)
Sacks OVER 4.5 (-120) (3) (I thought Sack money would come storming in, and hope to go under 5 back)

I will supplement this list late Saturday night. Not much to do right now but wait for the "correct" current lines to move incorrectly, and to monitor some individual obscure player moves that usually are correct, and nail some stale numbers.

RobFunk · Feb 2, 2006

SCnit said:
Jackson long reception, UND 23.5, -110 (2)

Jackson Longest REC UN 23.5, -110 (.5)

Jackson, longest REC OVER 19.5, -115, (2)

WHY

WildBill · Feb 2, 2006

I find this one extremely hard to believe! Maybe he meant 10-1??? If it is really 100-1 wouldn't we all take a shot at it?

SCnit said:
First TD scored after 28 minute mark, 100-1, (.2)

WVU · Feb 3, 2006

"Last score not a TD 150 (2) (questionable bet)"

even if the last drive was a touchdown wouldn't the last score still be an extra point?

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Feb 3, 2006

Did Fezzik finish above 35% in the NFL challenge? Did he have 3 or 4 winnings weeks out of 17? He wrote a real nice article on low/reduced juice. When you hit around 35% you require a break in the juice bath. If he bets all of those, he will indeed be a professional ...

Interesting is not the adjective I had in mind.

Best Wishes...OF :103631605

zee · Feb 3, 2006

Wouldn't it have been easier if you post instead what he DIDN'T bet?

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Feb 3, 2006

I counted 48 positions, guess we left out Hawaii and Alaska. It is Fezzik's US continental special, all 48. I could find a million ways to ridicule this but let me ask you this, how well could you enjoy the game tracking 48 spots? Do you have to hire an accountant? Buy some mainframe time? Maybe hire a crew of 6 and give them 8 each. They can report to you, one at a time how each of their 8 is doing. How much time did you spend capping each one. I could not even flip a coin 48 times that fast. And you know what, after all the dust settles, and you could not view one minute of the game because you were updating your 48 bets, the day is a wash. 24 and 24. Do they offer reduced juice on props?

Best Wishes...OF :103631605

How much would a 48 teamer pay?

Santo · Feb 3, 2006

I don't follow Frog.. he doesn't have to track them..

If he thinks each bet is +EV, then it's logical to make them. I assume he didn't bet blindly but researched (in fact I know he did in a few cases), and if he believes the portfolio will show a profit, then what's the harm?

If I had that many bets, I'd just do the accounting the next day when everything's settled, being sure to check the stats and make sure things are settled correctly..

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Feb 3, 2006

The props were made for entertainment value, you can root for them during the game. Coin flip, why not? I must be missing the posEV here unless there are scalps for everyone. In fact juice can range from a low of 16 cents up to 40 on props. They must be Vegas numbers as they are wayoff what is offered offshore. Seems like a ton of work capping, getting down, grading, verifying tickets and the posEV is highly debatable. Just tell me the results after the juice bath.

Best Wishes...OF :103631605

Kornholio · Feb 4, 2006

:nosepicki FEZZIK is a square. I seriously think he fades himself....or bets all dogs to be cool....but I think more than likely it's the fading himself.

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2006

Any professional will tell you this time of year is a goldmine.

Very, very, very hard to lose on SB props considering the bad lines, middles, and scalps available.

Not uncommon for these individuals to have a minimum of 100 wagers on the SB.

Guarantee there are posters here with over 200 wagers headed into the big game(working on it myself).

-FISH-

wantitall4moi · Feb 4, 2006

Props are good if you get the EXTREMES, then take the opposite way.

There is almost no way to cap a prop. That is how they set the numbers for crying out loud.

But most generally you are going to be paying way to much in holds to even make buy backs profitable.

but everyone likes to be a hero, or make believe they are a hero, and themasses love them for it.

How some people get so great a reputation on so little substance is beyond me. But to each their own I guess.

The Superbowl is never a good game to bet anyways, props side or not. It is like happy hour to an alcoholic "beginner's night out". Unless you are out and out taking leads and buying back (and at $200 limits at most places you ain't getting much return) then the value simply isn't there. You pick a side, you bet a side and hope it wins, that is what it usually comes down to in the Superbowl. All the other stuff is for the housewifes who bet once or twice a year to get all wet about.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Feb 4, 2006

Fishhead said:
Any professional will tell you this time of year is a goldmine.

Very, very, very hard to lose on SB props considering the bad lines, middles, and scalps available.

Not uncommon for these individuals to have a minimum of 100 wagers on the SB.

Guarantee there are posters here with over 200 wagers headed into the big game(working on it myself).

-FISH-

Tellya Fish, I will leave the juice bath to you and self proclaimed expert Fezzik. Have to agree with Want and ACE ACE. They are by and large sucker bets, with the worst hold possible. You might be able to cap a handfull, but the rest are coin flips, or worse. Reminds me of the guy that bet every game on the NFL schd. He was lucky to hit 50%, and still lost because of the juice. So factor in Fezzik's NFL skills, sub. 35% double the juice and let me know the results. I have seen this show too many times.

<TABLE class=tborder id=post2566542 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 width=175>ACE-ACE<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_2566542", true); </SCRIPT>
EX BOOKIE

Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: WAYNE MI.
Posts: 3,487

</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_2566542>

Never Bet Propostion Bets
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1>Small Amount Of Money Only!!! You Are Not Going To Get Rich Trying....

the Only Prop Bet That Sport Books Got Hurt On Was The Refrigerator Scored A Td In Super Bowl XX. The Odds Opened At 12-1 And Closed At 2-1 As The Public Made A Fortune Betting On Him To Score A Td...it Marked The Only Time In Super Bowl Betting History That The Public Won Money On Proposition Bet
also The Juice Will Kill You......try To Make Small Bets

ACE-ACE
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The juice will kill you.

Best Wishes...OF :103631605

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Feb 4, 2006

Here you go Fish/Fezzik. Pinny now caters to you guys...

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width=650 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ContestTitle colSpan=5>NFL Propositions <TR><TD class=ContestHeader colSpan=5>SUPER HIGH ROLLER PROPS

For the man that wants several hundred props for the game. You know what Fish, the books want that also. There is a wide gap between the shotgun approach and the sharpshooter approach. The prop pools and offerings are some of the worst during the year. Then to sit here and say, go ahead and walk into the minefield, in fact run around in circles in it a hundred times? Find an angle, that is supported by several different game outcomes, and stay conservative. I have never bet more than 5 props in one game, and have 4, 3 involving one player. Mostly I isolate one player, the most cap friendly props. Some on Fezziks list are coin flips, if not most. Follow me men, right into the minefield, wait, I forgot my canteen, get across and I'll take the jeep around. By the way Bus MVP down to +6.25.

Best Wishes...OF :103631605

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2006

I will lose THOUSANDS on superbowl props........your right FROGhead.

This year will mark the 23rd straight year of doing so.

Santo · Feb 4, 2006

My figures show, barring pushes, the superbowl will beat 6 NFL weeks this season for scalping profits, not bad considering there's just one game ;-)

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2006

Santo said:
My figures show, barring pushes, the superbowl will beat 6 NFL weeks this season for scalping profits, not bad considering there's just one game ;-)

Very simple formula....

BANKROLL + OUTS = $$$$$

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Feb 4, 2006

Fishhead said:
I will lose THOUSANDS on superbowl props........your right FROGhead.

This year will mark the 23rd straight year of doing so.

Just because you are successful at dodging the mines makes it right to tell people to join you? I don't see you posting anything, not one of your hundreds. So effectively you are telling them to walk into the minefield, but you blindfold them. Nice guy.

Best Wishes...OF :103631605

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Feb 4, 2006

Santo said:
My figures show, barring pushes, the superbowl will beat 6 NFL weeks this season for scalping profits, not bad considering there's just one game ;-)

Are you required to scalp the NFL only? I can't think of a worse sport to scalp. In fact, I have NFL last on the list of available scalps, so I am glad you have gained more of an advantage, in the worst sport to scalp. Well, time to go, these NCAA lines sure are moving.

Best Wishes...OF :103631605

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2006

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Just because you are successful at dodging the mines makes it right to tell people to join you? I don't see you posting anything, not one of your hundreds. So effectively you are telling them to walk into the minefield, but you blindfold them. Nice guy.

Best Wishes...OF