how do you define good line? Significantly off the current market line? Significantly off opener and market line? How do you know if the adjustment is correct, or the opener was correct?
In short no, I wouldn't "bet" a good line to give me an edge. I'd find a way to work it into a portfolio though.
In short no, I wouldn't "bet" a good line to give me an edge. I'd find a way to work it into a portfolio though.
That is kind of my question. What defines an "off line". I'm sure you would have to run this through over hundreds of bets to see an edge.Santo said:
I have some Lakers -8 -107 (currentlly +9), if this game moves up a point should I buy back for a middle or is it smart to just hold the -8, in the long run you are betting a soft line.
I doubt that I'd bet it unless I was looking to set up a middle with the other line that was bad....
"Value" is in the eye of the beholder.....one guy gets a five and thinks he's got a deal because he thinks its a twenty point game and the next guy thinks the other team should be favored....there is no "value" in a losing play....."value" is determined after the game is over and who is standing at the window cashing a ticket and who is walking away stunned....
Usually those stunned guys are the ones talking about "how they were on the correct side" or some other bullshit for explaining away or rationalizing why they lost...apparently they weren't on the "correct side" because obviously they didn't get paid.
"Value" is in the eye of the beholder.....one guy gets a five and thinks he's got a deal because he thinks its a twenty point game and the next guy thinks the other team should be favored....there is no "value" in a losing play....."value" is determined after the game is over and who is standing at the window cashing a ticket and who is walking away stunned....
Usually those stunned guys are the ones talking about "how they were on the correct side" or some other bullshit for explaining away or rationalizing why they lost...apparently they weren't on the "correct side" because obviously they didn't get paid.
Yes, I would bet a good (enough) line on a game I had no other opinion on, and have done it several times this NCAA hoops season and made cash. I also do this in baseball (on games where I have already determined what a correct market price should be and can get much better) and to a lesser extent in football.
