Question about a comment from FISHHEAD on another thread.

CHOPTALK · Feb 4, 2006

<TABLE class=tborder id=post2567263 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_2567263>In fact, if you shop for the best number, it should be IMPOSSIBLE for anybody here to hit LESS than 54% of their games!!!
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Is this mathmatically correct?

Thats a very strong statement.

I am not saying this is untrue. Thats why I started this thread to get feedback.

Insiders · Feb 4, 2006

Wished it was correct, but its not.

D2bets · Feb 4, 2006

I think I'll have to disagree with Fish on that one, unless you are very selective in what you're shopping for and how much off the consensus you are betting, or are betting into lines higher than -110.

More like 51.5%.

PatrickMcIrish · Feb 4, 2006

If you are flipping a coin (and hitting 50%) then it should make you roughly in the 52% range or so. Might be a tad high but it will add around 2% for you.

PatrickMcIrish · Feb 4, 2006

Don't want to speak for Fish but he might have been implying if you are just a break even capper laying -110 at 52.38% then by just shopping for the best number it would bring you up to around 54% or more. I see some very good cappers down in the pick forums who routinely play bad numbers, unreal they do as well as they do with the #'s they are playing in to. Perhaps that was the point he was trying to make --> INCREASE YOUR OUTS. I didn't see the thread so don't know what kind of context it was said within, the way it's quoted above I too have to disagree.

D2bets · Feb 4, 2006

A better way to consider it is line shopping (both spread and vig) should make betting basically vig-free. If you can cap anything above 50% against WA numbers then you should profit.

Iceman · Feb 4, 2006

I am starting to 100% agree with that statement. The key question is how much of a better number are you talking. A half point I'm not sure. The reason I feel this way is if you scalp/middle a game most people that do this will tell you they end up beating the slow book and lose to the sharp book.

Iceman · Feb 4, 2006

Their is a guy on another forum that does just this style/strategy and claims he had a winning month every month in 2005. Just today I have:
La Laffayette -5 (now -6.5)
Clevland -7.5 (now 9.5)
William/Mary -4.5 (now -6)
under 195 Philadelphia (now 188.5)
under 191 Boston (now 188.5)
Penn -14.5 (now 15.5)
Wright St -6.5 (now 7.5)
and a few others that haven't moved. I have to beleive what Fish is saying if you can get bets like this down (lots and lots of them) you wil hit at a 54% rate. I wish he would jump in here and gives his take on this I would love to know what he exactly meant.

Iceman · Feb 5, 2006

ice man said:
Their is a guy on another forum that does just this style/strategy and claims he had a winning month every month in 2005. Just today I have:
La Laffayette -5 (now -6.5)
Clevland -7.5 (now 9.5)
William/Mary -4.5 (now -6)
under 195 Philadelphia (now 188.5)
under 191 Boston (now 188.5)
Penn -14.5 (now 15.5)
Wright St -6.5 (now 7.5)
and a few others that haven't moved. I have to beleive what Fish is saying if you can get bets like this down (lots and lots of them) you wil hit at a 54% rate. I wish he would jump in here and gives his take on this I would love to know what he exactly meant.

small sample size but went 5-1 and Cleveland bet was when A.I. was out. Still think their is something to this

Fishhead · Feb 5, 2006

Patrick McIrish said:
If you are flipping a coin (and hitting 50%) then it should make you roughly in the 52% range or so. Might be a tad high but it will add around 2% for you.

You are right on!!!

Was SLIGHTLY exagerrating with the 54% figure, but most fairly sharp individuals can hit 51% and then adding the 1-3% figure by line shopping will get you to 54% or close to it.

Fishhead · Feb 5, 2006

Fishhead said:
You are right on!!!

Was SLIGHTLY exagerrating with the 54% figure, but most fairly sharp individuals can hit 51% and then adding the 1-3% figure by line shopping will get you to 54% or close to it.

Now think about this...........if one plays 100 games at -110 for 1100 to win 1000..........how much will they win?

The answer......

54,000 minus 50,600 equals 3,400

Betting 110 to win 100 and hitting 54% after 100 games would net one a mere $340.

THIS IS THE REALITY OF SPORTSBETTING AND MOST DO NOT UNDERSTAND IT ..........SADLY.

Iceman · Feb 5, 2006

Fishhead said:
Now think about this...........if one plays 100 games at -110 for 1100 to win 1000..........how much will they win?

The answer......

54,000 minus 50,600 equals 3,400

Betting 110 to win 100 and hitting 54% after 100 games would net one a mere $340.

THIS IS THE REALITY OF SPORTSBETTING AND MOST DO NOT UNDERSTAND IT ..........SADLY.

Fish, I always liked this one:
go 135-115 betting all -110 you are up $850 ($100 a game) do the exact opposite
go 115-135 betting all -110 you are down $-3350 ($100 a game)
over 3X worse for the exact same results the other way, sort of tells you how much harder it is to win!!!!

Fishhead · Feb 5, 2006

ice man said:
Fish, I always liked this one:
go 135-115 betting all -110 you are up $850 ($100 a game) do the exact opposite
go 115-135 betting all -110 you are down $-3350 ($100 a game)
over 3X worse for the exact same results the other way, sort of tells you how much harder it is to win!!!!

BINGO!

CoachLT · Feb 5, 2006

Fishhead said:
Now think about this...........if one plays 100 games at -110 for 1100 to win 1000..........how much will they win?

The answer......

54,000 minus 50,600 equals 3,400

Betting 110 to win 100 and hitting 54% after 100 games would net one a mere $340.

THIS IS THE REALITY OF SPORTSBETTING AND MOST DO NOT UNDERSTAND IT ..........SADLY.

Just by using 105 juice you increase your win amount from 3400 to 5700 a HUGE difference. If you use a -110 for anything but a few plays, you are throwing money away. Low Juice RULES! :103631605

LT

Fishhead · Feb 5, 2006

Coach LT said:
Just by using 105 juice you increase your win amount from 3400 to 5700 a HUGE difference. If you use a -110 for anything but a few plays, you are throwing money away. Low Juice RULES! LT

HAPPY SUPER SUNDAY COACH!

-FISH-

ps- I laid 5-1 you were going to mention -105 vig and all its wonderful attributes in this thread before todays kick-off..............that gets my Superbowl props off to a 1-0 start...............thank you sir.

docmercer--banned · Feb 5, 2006

Just fade my picks and that should get ya around 60% mark

CoachLT · Feb 5, 2006

Fishhead said:
HAPPY SUPER SUNDAY COACH!

-FISH-

ps- I laid 5-1 you were going to mention -105 vig and all its wonderful attributes in this thread before todays kick-off..............that gets my Superbowl props off to a 1-0 start...............thank you sir.

HAPPY SUPER SUNDAY FISH!

Glad I could contribute to your success. Ah, lucky in LOVE & Handicapping. You are The Cats Meow, LT

arty:

wantitall4moi · Feb 5, 2006

The thing is that always getting the best SPREAD does not always mean getting the best return.

If you always get the best number you will gain between 1-3% (including pushes) in NCAA hoops. (we are having this discussion at Fezziks place right now actually) But if you "eat" that extra half point here and there and "trade" it in for the "better" hold i.e -4.5 -110 and you bet -4 -102. Theoretically laying the -4 at -102 is supposed to make you more profitable.

Simply because when you lower the amount of vig you lay it automatically lowers your profitable win needs.

It gets a litle tricky when you start factoring in half points and when you lay a half point spread or a flat spread.

But I have always ascertained that for better odds sacrificing a half point isn't that big a deal, as long as the odds dictate it.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Feb 5, 2006

You can always tell when Fish is doing well, he shares his advice. Get rich quick, can't lose, how can anyone not make money...ETC. Profit every month. If it was as easy as that, would he be moderating here?

Best Wishes...OF :nopityA: