Was wondering what the top baseball cappers on here use to weight their selections. Do you use starting pitcher stats, a combination of statistics, prior meeting between the two teams playing, prior pitchers performance against the team he is pitching against that night, etc. Also interested to know how you weight those factors against the published line. Thanks in advance for any input. Personally I look at the team's prior ten games and are they hot or not. Also look at the starting pitchers past five starts and whether they have been quality starts.
I look at things besides the stats you mentioned. I like to:
read local papers & try to get a beat on how the team moral is
look for any travel loopholes that could aid or hurt a team vs their opponent
use common sense to see if certain games are for going through the motions with a big one on tap, etc...
read local papers & try to get a beat on how the team moral is
look for any travel loopholes that could aid or hurt a team vs their opponent
use common sense to see if certain games are for going through the motions with a big one on tap, etc...
i try to focus on one maybe two teams....i try to stay in the N.L. where managers play a bigger part in the game...tend to bet those teams daily...after a week or two you get a feel for how they will play...i try to follow the next opponet while they are playing their current series...hope that makes sense.
focusing on certain teams, ride streaking teams, don't ever expect a team to lose because they're due (that alone will save you a lot of money)
If the Cubs have won the first two or three games at Busch don't automatically take the Cardinals in game 3 or 4, because 'they can't be swept at home can they'? This one use to kill me!
Head to head matchup history/stats mean more in baseball than any other sport when it comes to capping.
If the Cubs have won the first two or three games at Busch don't automatically take the Cardinals in game 3 or 4, because 'they can't be swept at home can they'? This one use to kill me!
Head to head matchup history/stats mean more in baseball than any other sport when it comes to capping.
The more information that you use the better! If it affects the game, and you can track it, then it is valuable information. Obviously some information is better than other, but it's not too hard to figure it out. I absolutely hate those stats that go something like this: the Giants are 17-6 on Tuesday's when they play on turf vs. a lefty with an ERA over 4.50. This one is a bit ridiculous, but you catch my drift.
This season here is a streak trend that i am going to follow for the first month anyway, maybe longer.
If a team wins 3 games in a row i am going to bet on that team to WIN the 4th and 5th an so on. Only if they are not Tooooooo big of a chalk.
Next i am going to bet against a team that has lost 3 gems in a row and 4th an 5th an so on. The team loosing will hardly ever be a Big chalk even at home during this streak.
If a team wins 3 games in a row i am going to bet on that team to WIN the 4th and 5th an so on. Only if they are not Tooooooo big of a chalk.
Next i am going to bet against a team that has lost 3 gems in a row and 4th an 5th an so on. The team loosing will hardly ever be a Big chalk even at home during this streak.
Insiders said:
Ive seen someone try this every year.....Im not sure it ever works.
I hate systems in BB.In my experience....its all or nothing with systems.Tough to pick and choose.Also Id pay close attention to what team is beating who for the three games dictating your play....thats just a series.Example: if the TB sweeps Baltimore in Tampa then travels to BOS will you play TB? Not to mention youll run into streaking teams matching up with one another (3 wins vs. 3 wins).Lots of tough choices with systems in bases.
Remember chaulky lines in bases are more or less dictated by the starter.If the Marlins lose three in a row and Willis is slated as the starter in game 4 this line will always be huge (especially at home)....wont matter how many they lost prior to his start.
Guys who use systems and are successful IMO still need to do the homework and capping that everyone else does,especially if its not a straight system,where youll be laying off system dictated plays from time to time.Most people who use systems use them as shortcuts....some work, some dont.Im under the impression if theres a system that works,the inventor wouldnt need to gamble anymore because he could write a best selling book.
GL.
Actually if you go back and look I noticed a tendency in baseball. If a team loses six games or more when they break the losing streak for some reason more often than not they lose the next game following the win they just had to break the streak. Why this is I have no idea but it works for me.
