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Thread: If you beat the closing number by 1 point (on average) would you hit over 53%?

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  1. #26  
    RX Senior jwunderdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead
    SKYBOOK....free halfs everyday.....up to $300.

    Also suggest investing in a MINIMUM of two monitors........this will enable you greatly in getting better numbers and with experience, the VERY BEST number the vast majority of the time.

    -FISH-


    Only problem is they have changed a lot over the last 3 years. They hang the lines later, and slant them with juice. Much harder to get a one point advantage now then it was 3 years ago.
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  2. #27  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ice man
    Take that in reverse and if home favs are covering at 48.8 than road dogs must be 51.2%, now add in 4% points to that number.
    Yes that would work but I would like to caution you that while this year so far they are 51.2%, historically the figures each year will fall very, very close to 50%. I have tracked these things for many years and the linemaker does an absolutely fantastic job of keeping things very close to 50%.
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  3. #28  
    Rx Wizard Iceman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jwunderdog
    Only problem is they have changed a lot over the last 3 years. They hang the lines later, and slant them with juice. Much harder to get a one point advantage now then it was 3 years ago.
    If you pay attention closely sometimes you can find the juice to your advantage. For example I just bet Idaho St +((with free half point) and got it at -108. Most books are +8.5 -110. Not a huge difference but a few dollars.
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  4. #29  
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    I do agree that the closing number is slightly more likely to hit...since it is the concensus line after being out there for a while.....and obviously 1/2 point matters - if anything ever hits then it matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by jwunderdog
    I would think in basketball adding a point to the closing # on either side would make you a long term winner. From what I understand the closing # hits closer to 50% then the openning. If one point doesn't make you a winner then the value of a 1/2 point being worth 3 to 5 % is thrown out the window.
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  5. #30  
    RX Senior buzzerbeater9's Avatar
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    I know most people will say that buying the hook or the 1/2 pt is wrong but it makes me feel better and I do it sometimes. I always make a -3.5 into a -3 in baskets to make it 1 possession. Also +1.5 into +2,-2.5 into -2, & +2.5 into +3. I can usually find this for less than the full dime now at bet exchanges. For me at least, vig only matters when you lose.
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  6. #31  
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    It took a lot of wise men to convince me but buying the hook is not worth it.
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  7. #32  
    Rx Wizard Iceman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by buzzerbeater9
    I know most people will say that buying the hook or the 1/2 pt is wrong but it makes me feel better and I do it sometimes. I always make a -3.5 into a -3 in baskets to make it 1 possession. Also +1.5 into +2,-2.5 into -2, & +2.5 into +3. I can usually find this for less than the full dime now at bet exchanges. For me at least, vig only matters when you lose.
    I'm sure if it helped you ( and hurt the books) than the books would not offer it to you.
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  8. #33  
    RX Senior wantitall4moi's Avatar
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    You cannot simply look at openers and closers either, that is the problem. You have to look at the BEST number, be it opener, closer, or somewhere in the middle.

    This year has been a small anomoly in terms of expectation. It is almost a 3% difference for a one point "better" number overall. Generally it is a little over 2%. (assuming the BEST number available) which isn't possible to get every time.

    Vig is more important than spread, that is a general rule of thumb to carry with you.

    When people can't even agree on what the best number is/was, then trying to figure out the specifics is impossible.

    Half the guys will tell you they got -4, while some guys with exchanges or a rogue books got -3.5 at some point. (both assuming -110). While some will say they took -4 -110, but now can get -4.5 +103. The people will try and tell you which is "better". When there really is no answer. Although they will continue to cite how much Pinny or other books charge for a half point or a point, which is irrelevant.

    There is no secret formula, the less you have taken out on a win is always the best policy. Or the less you risk up front for a better pay off on a win (depending on if you lay 110 to win 100 or 100 to win 90.90).

    Unless you aremaking thousands of bets or thousands of dollars, then even that (vig) is slightly overrated.

    So best explanation is spot better should get best spread with best vig, and long term players should focus on best vig first, then best number.
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  9. #34  
    RX Senior jwunderdog's Avatar
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    "Generally it is a little over 2%. (assuming the BEST number available) which isn't possible to get every time."

    You are saying that historically in Baskeball, 1 point only comes into play a little over 2 times out of 100? Over what time frame and sport(nba or NCaa) is your data?
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  10. #35  
    RX Senior wantitall4moi's Avatar
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    Both NBA and NCAA is about 2.5% since 1995 in terms of a 1/2 and 1 point differential making a difference. Mostly a push to a win, or a loss to a push. From a loser to a winner it is actually less than 1%(not exactly sure the results as I can't break thm down that specifically, but by looking over the results.)

    This year it is slightly more for some reason, at least in the NCAA, in the NBA it is hard to tell since it is a smaller sample size.

    But since most epopel don't reguallry get a full point off an extreme then this data is not something that people have to really worry about.

    As I have said in the past about this data, it is OK to have, but not all that relevant to betting. Basically it makes for good debates.
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  11. #36  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wantitall4moi
    So best explanation is spot better should get best spread with best vig, and long term players should focus on best vig first, then best number.
    What a bunch of nonsense.
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  12. #37  
    RX Senior wantitall4moi's Avatar
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    If you can pick/recognize winning sides (teams not spreads) then vig is hands down the most important factor. 80% of the time even getting the VERY BEST number does not matter.

    People that always site getting the "best" spread or the most "valuable" number are simply not "good" enough so they rely on these marginal advantages to make the difference between winning and losing for them.

    While it is important, it is vastly overrated by 99% of the bettors out there. Ifit isn't a factor with their style of betting then it is a waste of time for them to worry about it.
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  13. #38  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wantitall4moi
    Both NBA and NCAA is about 2.5% since 1995 in terms of a 1/2 and 1 point differential making a difference. Mostly a push to a win, or a loss to a push. From a loser to a winner it is actually less than 1%(not exactly sure the results as I can't break thm down that specifically, but by looking over the results.)

    ...sorry, that's really not correct. Real number is 3.7% +/- 0.4 (99% confidence interval) added to the win %, that's pushes to wins on whole numbers, pushes to wins on .5s and losses to pushes on wholes off the denom. Loss to push is 2.1% - Push to win is 1.82% - Loss to win is 1.97%

    Based on about 9 seasons.
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  14. #39  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wantitall4moi
    If you can pick/recognize winning sides (teams not spreads) then vig is hands down the most important factor. 80% of the time even getting the VERY BEST number does not matter.

    People that always site getting the "best" spread or the most "valuable" number are simply not "good" enough so they rely on these marginal advantages to make the difference between winning and losing for them.

    While it is important, it is vastly overrated by 99% of the bettors out there. Ifit isn't a factor with their style of betting then it is a waste of time for them to worry about it.
    More nonsense.

    Keep it coming...
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  15. #40  
    RX Senior Pancho Sanza's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by D2bets
    More nonsense.

    Keep it coming...
    Dont egg him on, he could spend the rest of eternity spewing nonsense.
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  16. #41  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Salain
    ...sorry, that's really not correct. Real number is 3.7% +/- 0.4 (99% confidence interval) added to the win %, that's pushes to wins on whole numbers, pushes to wins on .5s and losses to pushes on wholes off the denom. Loss to push is 2.1% - Push to win is 1.82% - Loss to win is 1.97%

    Based on about 9 seasons.
    Glad to see my stats matched up very closely with yours. 3.7% to 3.8% and I just ran mine for this year but it looks like it is representative.
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  17. #42  
    RX Senior wantitall4moi's Avatar
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    For those guys quoting results, that is YOUR database with YOUR closing numbers. These results will vary GREATLY depending on when and where you got the line. Also figuring out if the line s were all "balanced" as in at or close to -110.

    That is what makeas all this a very slippry slope. A book might have -4, but at +108, so on the "buy" it might figure to a -3 -110. So what is more correct? Using the -4 at the plus vig or the -3 at the more "correct" vig?

    That is where the calculations take a drastic turn. It is simple to throw out data that is "unblanced". I have been trying to get a program that "balances" it all off first, and then figure it out. That is why I do not have everything set in stone, and my guesses, are more guesstimates.

    As I said I looked over the list and saw a lot of lines that were NOT -110, and not even close. SO you have to somehow figure out a fair and equitable balance. That is generally based more on theory than fact. But in most cases I just use Pinny for an example (since people think they have the valuation "correct".)

    So if I have a bunch of games that closed -5 +105, and they had scoirng differential of 4 and 6, then balancing those off (in regards to getting one point "better" BOTH ways) then you have to figure the vig BOTH ways.

    Like I said, I don't think it is really worth it to figure out what getting a point of more will do for you, it is hard enough getting the right side in thefirst place.

    But people like to try and prove how smart they are by throwing shit out there that may or may not be relevant.

    Not you per se, but a lot of people that have their snide comments but rarely if ever provide any facts, other than "I am smarter than you that is enough" attitude.

    A lot of that going aroud lately, and generally when they do try and offer proof of their prowess/logic in the form of opinions and plays they get buried. SO matbe that is why the masses would rather have people THINK they are smarter then try and offer something that only proves they are not.
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  18. #43  
    RX Senior RobFunk's Avatar
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    bump
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  19. #44  
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    Terrible. Vig ALWAYS matters. It matters no matter how many bets you make, no matter what winning % etc etc.

    For me at least, vig only matters when you lose.

    And you will likely lose >45% of the time.

    So best explanation is spot better should get best spread with best vig, and long term players should focus on best vig first, then best number.

    No, you go for whichever gives the best value. ALWAYS. There is definitely a best option, even when both options give you the same ev (go for better line which means higher winrate, allowing you to bet a little more for no extra volatility).
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  20. #45  
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    yes
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  21. #46  
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    Great thread, lot of guys that get it. where have they gone.
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