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Thread: If you beat the closing number by 1 point (on average) would you hit over 53%?

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  1. #1 If you beat the closing number by 1 point (on average) would you hit over 53%? 
    Rx Wizard Iceman's Avatar
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    I know this was somewhat asked the other day, but my question involves "that if you averaged the lines you bet and compared it to the closing line (consensus of top 5 books ) and you had a average of a one point edge on your plays, after say 500 hundred plays would you beat the standard vig(-110)? No handicapping involved.
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  2. #2  
    RX SemiGod
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    For hoops? Yes. You should hit 53.5-54%.
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  3. #3  
    RX Local CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    No you would not assuming that without the 1 point the plays would go exactly 50%, it would increase your winning percentage by about 2.75%
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  4. #4  
    RX Wizard jwblue's Avatar
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    I have heard this before but I don't understand it. Why does getting a better line correspond to winning a wager?

    IS
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  5. #5  
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    Quote Originally Posted by InSpades
    I have heard this before but I don't understand it. Why does getting a better line correspond to winning a wager?

    IS
    In the immortal words of John McEnroe, "you can't be serious"!
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  6. #6  
    Rx Wizard Iceman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by InSpades
    I have heard this before but I don't understand it. Why does getting a better line correspond to winning a wager?

    IS
    Give you 2 big examples from tonight. I found a University of Detroit -3.5(-4 consenus eveywhere) and bet it with a half point edge and it won by 4( a push is instead a win). I had under 140 Florida (closed 138) game hit 139 (a loss is now a win). This doesn't happen much but if you can hit 50% over a hundred plays and take a few losses/pushes and turn them into wins, you hopefully become a winning player. I'm sure thier are better ways to explain it but basically it can elevate a 50% gambler to 53-54%, I beleive...
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  7. #7  
    RX Member Salain's Avatar
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    It's complete dependent on the sport and if it's spread or total. And how big each of them is. Without looking into it too closely, yeah you could be profitable so long as the total and spread are sufficiently low. Going from 20 to 21 on a 150 pt college bball game isn't worth it.

    Just look carefully at how you're going to be getting this point.
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  8. #8  
    RX Local Fishhead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ice man
    Give you 2 big examples from tonight. I found a University of Detroit -3.5(-4 consenus eveywhere) and bet it with a half point edge and it won by 4( a push is instead a win). I had under 140 Florida (closed 138) game hit 139 (a loss is now a win). This doesn't happen much but if you can hit 50% over a hundred plays and take a few losses/pushes and turn them into wins, you hopefully become a winning player. I'm sure thier are better ways to explain it but basically it can elevate a 50% gambler to 53-54%, I beleive...
    ICE MAN--You are absolutely correct.

    Anywhere from 52-54% is a good figure.
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  9. #9  
    Rx Wizard Iceman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ice man
    Give you 2 big examples from tonight. I found a University of Detroit -3.5(-4 consenus eveywhere) and bet it with a half point edge and it won by 4( a push is instead a win). I had under 140 Florida (closed 138) game hit 139 (a loss is now a win). This doesn't happen much but if you can hit 50% over a hundred plays and take a few losses/pushes and turn them into wins, you hopefully become a winning player. I'm sure thier are better ways to explain it but basically it can elevate a 50% gambler to 53-54%, I beleive...
    or getting Vanderbilt +3.5 when -3 was consenus pretty much everywhere(they lost by 3). Oh those gambling gods, they must know I posted this. I have 3 situations like this and I haven't one in almost a week.
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  10. #10  
    RX Wizard Insiders's Avatar
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    First things first. The Closeing line is far less important than the "opening" number. Second thing is was it the "right:side to begin with. Picking Winners is the MAIN thing.
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  11. #11  
    RX Wizard cincy_'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Insiders
    First things first. The Closeing line is far less important than the "opening" number. Second thing is was it the "right:side to begin with. Picking Winners is the MAIN thing.
    Exactly.

    For example, a game starts on Team A -6 over Team B. The lines moves to Team A -8.

    A person who consitantly gets Team A -6 will beat a guy who consistantly gets Team B +8.

    PS: To give credit where credit is due, I learned this from Fezzik years ago - even though I had to put up with a condescending attitude.
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  12. #12  
    W-R-X Champion Dubpoet's Avatar
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    Thats like saying take the public games at +1 on the spread and win??

    Try capping your own line.
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  13. #13  
    Rx Wizard Iceman's Avatar
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    I posted a similar question on Fezzik's place and a few of the sharper guys on thier (including Fezzik) said when "anaylzing your plays after the fact it is more important to compare the bet to the CLOSING line"
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  14. #14  
    RX Wizard Insiders's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ice man
    I posted a similar question on Fezzik's place and a few of the sharper guys on thier (including Fezzik) said when "anaylzing your plays after the fact it is more important to compare the bet to the CLOSING line"
    The Closeing line is just a number that has been "trampled" on by Gawd only knows who ALL day long.
    You will find out that the "real" sharps and the "sharp groups" are looking for the BEST of the number at ALL times.
    Now if the opener was the BEST of the number, do you actaully think that the closeing number, which might be as many as 2-4 points from the opener an by beating that number by a mere point you have the best of it?
    Just think about it! I think you will see the point.
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  15. #15  
    RX Senior El Jefe's Avatar
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    It won't matter.

    The worst thing about trying something like this is if it works 5 out of 7 times the first week you do it, you will think it is easy money. If it was easy as grabbing a point here and there, everyone would do it.
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  16. #16  
    RX Senior jwunderdog's Avatar
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    I would think in basketball adding a point to the closing # on either side would make you a long term winner. From what I understand the closing # hits closer to 50% then the openning. If one point doesn't make you a winner then the value of a 1/2 point being worth 3 to 5 % is thrown out the window.
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  17. #17  
    RX Senior jwunderdog's Avatar
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    Now someone find me a book that is giving away free points!
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  18. #18  
    RX Local Fishhead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jwunderdog
    Now someone find me a book that is giving away free points!
    SKYBOOK....free halfs everyday.....up to $300.

    Also suggest investing in a MINIMUM of two monitors........this will enable you greatly in getting better numbers and with experience, the VERY BEST number the vast majority of the time.

    -FISH-
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  19. #19  
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHOPTALK
    No you would not assuming that without the 1 point the plays would go exactly 50%, it would increase your winning percentage by about 2.75%
    I ran this situation through my program for this season. I checked it against home favorites. Here is what the results were:

    Home favs this year are winning at .488
    If give them an extra 1 point........ .526 or + .038
    If give them an extra 2 ............. .572 or + .084
    If give them an extra 3 ............. .598 or + .11
    If give them an extra 4 ............. .629 or + .141
    If give them an extra 4.5............. .644 or + .156
    So for this study, 1 pt will add about 3.8% to your win percentage. A 4 pt teaser will increase your odds on each leg by 14.1%. A 5 pter, 15.6%. Biggest jump was between 1 and 2 pts.

    Hope this helps.
    Ron
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  20. #20  
    RX Wizard
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    IS that SIA your middling the shit out of?

    Quote Originally Posted by ice man
    Give you 2 big examples from tonight. I found a University of Detroit -3.5(-4 consenus eveywhere) and bet it with a half point edge and it won by 4( a push is instead a win). I had under 140 Florida (closed 138) game hit 139 (a loss is now a win). This doesn't happen much but if you can hit 50% over a hundred plays and take a few losses/pushes and turn them into wins, you hopefully become a winning player. I'm sure thier are better ways to explain it but basically it can elevate a 50% gambler to 53-54%, I beleive...
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  21. #21  
    RX Wizard
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    Yeah, alabama by 3 - it's about time I hit something


    Quote Originally Posted by ice man
    or getting Vanderbilt +3.5 when -3 was consenus pretty much everywhere(they lost by 3). Oh those gambling gods, they must know I posted this. I have 3 situations like this and I haven't one in almost a week.
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  22. #22  
    RX Wizard
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    Well, you can. You can have the opener at say -6 (lowest all day) and the closer at +9 (highest all day) - one could argue that both lines are "the best of it."


    Quote Originally Posted by Insiders
    The Closeing line is just a number that has been "trampled" on by Gawd only knows who ALL day long.
    You will find out that the "real" sharps and the "sharp groups" are looking for the BEST of the number at ALL times.
    Now if the opener was the BEST of the number, do you actaully think that the closeing number, which might be as many as 2-4 points from the opener an by beating that number by a mere point you have the best of it?
    Just think about it! I think you will see the point.
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  23. #23  
    Rx Wizard Iceman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldn
    I ran this situation through my program for this season. I checked it against home favorites. Here is what the results were:

    Home favs this year are winning at .488
    If give them an extra 1 point........ .526 or + .038
    If give them an extra 2 ............. .572 or + .084
    If give them an extra 3 ............. .598 or + .11
    If give them an extra 4 ............. .629 or + .141
    If give them an extra 4.5............. .644 or + .156
    So for this study, 1 pt will add about 3.8% to your win percentage. A 4 pt teaser will increase your odds on each leg by 14.1%. A 5 pter, 15.6%. Biggest jump was between 1 and 2 pts.

    Hope this helps.
    Ron
    Take that in reverse and if home favs are covering at 48.8 than road dogs must be 51.2%, now add in 4% points to that number.
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  24. #24  
    Rx Wizard Iceman's Avatar
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    Anyone that says it don't matter is flat out wrong (esp. in hoops). You and i should hit around 50% of our plays, if I get an extra half point to a point than this will effect a few games turning me from a loser to a winner!!!
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  25. #25  
    Rx Wizard Iceman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nimue77
    Well, you can. You can have the opener at say -6 (lowest all day) and the closer at +9 (highest all day) - one could argue that both lines are "the best of it."
    I would say 100% they are both good bets
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