Actually if you look at historical results (which most people do) to look "value" points, then 1.5 points isn't "worth" that much.Fishhead said:Absolutely........your paying only 11 cents for 1.5 points!!.....
.....and one of the numbers is the LIVE -2!
Excellent
D2bets said:We can always count on wantitallformoi to muddle up an easy question. :nohead:
wantitall4moi said:Ok simple answer to the original question is/was "no" then..hows that?
I try to offer reasoning as to why an answer is yes or no, rather than throwing out unsubstantiated answers. Which is usually what you get on these places. or they give an answer that is based on incorrect assumptions, generally perpetuated by people that think they know because someone said it once, or "proved" it once.
wantitall4moi said:Actually if you look at historical results (which most people do) to look "value" points, then 1.5 points isn't "worth" that much.
The "probabilty" of a middle here is roughly 12/516(historical results of -2 through -3.5 lines where the game landed on 3) with a side probability of 9/516 (historical results where the game landed on 2). So roughly a 21/512 (4% chance) to hit a "non negative result". That nmakes it roughtly "worth" 8 cents or so.
Again theoretical based on past results and in no way reflects what might happen this game, but even so, past results are pretty much what "value" is based on.
If you get -2 and +4, you get somewhat of a reprieve and gain 7 more games with a "side" so then your expectation raises to 28/512, which makes it "worth" just about 11 cents.
I know what Pinny charges and what they pay, and their figures aren't exactly accurate. But they make up for it in volume. They will "charge" you 10-12 and "pay" you 7-9 cents per half point so people like to think that that makes the "value" somewhere in the middle (9 cents or so per half point), which it really isn't. If people took the time to look at the results they could see where they have a "theoretical" advantage as to when to buy and when not to.
The "best" way to figure it out is to look and see what the probabilities of a middle are, and as I have shown they have been roughly 12/512 (2.34% chance) of happening, going back to 1995.
wantitall4moi said:Ya I screwed up. I used +2 and +3.5 for both. Not -2 and +3.5
New figures(a little better)...
59 of 1584 (3.7%)games lined between those numbers landed on a 3 point differential. Middle
57 of 1584 (3.6%) landed on a 2 pt differential. Side
Not sure if this is really the correct way to "proof" it or not, but I guess it is as "good" as you wil find. But it does become profitable using these numbers. But that also is counting games that were lined PK, -1, -1.5,-2,-2.5, -3, and -3.5. So not sure it is the "right" way to do it.
Looking at games simply lines -2 AND -3.5 there are 536 total games. 294 closing at +3.5, and 242 closing at -2. Of those 20 (10 each) landed on a 3 pt differential. And 17 landed ona 2pt differential. SO that gives us a 20/536 (3.7%) chance at a middle, and 17/536 (3.1%) chance at a side.
If you take every result (3.1, 3.6, 3.7, 3.7) and take the median , that is roughly a 3.5% "probabilty" of getting a "positive" result. At 11 cents it isn't quite worth in IMO.
All depends on how you slice it. One way it is profitable, the other way it is not profitable.
I stand by my contention that if you did it every game you would lose money.