If you had 100k to bet with, how would you attack it, what would your plan be?

Iceman · Feb 13, 2006

This question really goes back to the thread Journeyman started about being a pro gambler, now let's say you have the 100k and you feel you could succeed in this, how would you go about it?

1) I would bet all major sports and spend most of my day shopping for the best lines and I would just bet plays where I got an edge in my line. I would spend WAY more time line shopping and alot less handicapping.
2) I would play almost every small edge I could find believing in quanity over quality. ( I think you need to wait close to gametime to pull the trigger on most of these plays and they would be alot more dogs.)
3) I would sign up with at least 25+ books so I could find an extra half point/point on most of my bets.
4) I would bet a real low pct of bankroll way less than 1%. I would beleive in heavy volume of plays to grind out a profit.

I think this style seems simple and to conservative for most but I TRULY beleive that this is the best chance you have of coming ahead if you bet year around (heavy volume and very low % of br, focusing on getting the best number on MOST your wagers.).
I have come to this conclusion in the last few months from practicing scalping/middiling on a ton of hoops games and BY FAR the most important thing I have noticied is that I continue to beat the bad number WAY WAY more than the consensus line and most of the people who I have spoke to feel the same way.I'm not sure that this is the best approach for most people but it would be my approach.

Fishhead · Feb 13, 2006

Perfect Post Ice Man

Journeyman · Feb 13, 2006

ice man said:
This question really goes back to the thread Journeyman started about being a pro gambler, now let's say you have the 100k and you feel you could succeed in this, how would you go about it?

1) I would bet all major sports and spend most of my day shopping for the best lines and I would just bet plays where I got an edge in my line. I would spend WAY more time line shopping and alot less handicapping.
2) I would play almost every small edge I could find believing in quanity over quality. ( I think you need to wait close to gametime to pull the trigger on most of these plays and they would be alot more dogs.)
3) I would sign up with at least 25+ books so I could find an extra half point/point on most of my bets.
4) I would bet a real low pct of bankroll way less than 1%. I would beleive in heavy volume of plays to grind out a profit.

I think this style seems simple and to conservative for most but I TRULY beleive that this is the best chance you have of coming ahead if you bet year around (heavy volume and very low % of br, focusing on getting the best number on MOST your wagers.).
I have come to this conclusion in the last few months from practicing scalping/middiling on a ton of hoops games and BY FAR the most important thing I have noticied is that I continue to beat the bad number WAY WAY more than the consensus line and most of the people who I have spoke to feel the same way.I'm not sure that this is the best approach for most people but it would be my approach.

This is pretty much what I am saying, to a T...1% is fine, you have a regular job and you should be fine betting 1% , enjoy the ride! I do not believe you can come out behind, you may have some down years but overall you should build the bank and enjoy it at this point (with that bank)

You would have 100 grand to fall back on...you can be more selective , you can take full advantage of line shopping and bonuses etc, there would be no sense of urgency.

:suomi:

dickiesmiles · Feb 13, 2006

I would bet one horse....

100k to SHOW..... And I would win 5k.....

Iceman · Feb 13, 2006

Fishhead said:
Perfect Post Ice Man

Thanks Fish, I stole some of things you have said. I thought I did a good job line shopping in the 15+ years I have bet (3 on-line) but I cannot stress the importance of an extra half a point because I never realized it. It seems so simple but it is what I beleive what seperates the winners from the losers and though it is talked about,I beleive it is not disscussed enough (IMO)!!!

Fishhead · Feb 13, 2006

ice man said:
Thanks Fish, I stole some of things you have said. I thought I did a good job line shopping in the 15+ years I have bet (3 on-line) but I cannot stress the importance of an extra half a point because I never realized it. It seems so simple but it is what I beleive what seperates the winners from the losers and though it is talked about,I beleive it is not disscussed enough (IMO)!!!

It sure isn't!

TheFalls · Feb 13, 2006

ice man said:
Thanks Fish, I stole some of things you have said. I thought I did a good job line shopping in the 15+ years I have bet (3 on-line) but I cannot stress the importance of an extra half a point because I never realized it. It seems so simple but it is what I beleive what seperates the winners from the losers and though it is talked about,I beleive it is not disscussed enough (IMO)!!!

You're kidding right?
Half points don't make and break winners. Games rarely, rarely land on the line. Not being a sucker separates winners and losers over the haul more so than the line itself.

SportsJunkie+ · Feb 13, 2006

I agree with everything BUT #4 where you mentioned that you would bet a heavy volume of games. I take the more selective route and look at 5-10 games a WEEK and try to win 55-60% to grind out a profit. That's just me and how I look at things.

Journeyman · Feb 13, 2006

Why bet less than 1% though? I think less volume, more selective.

Insiders · Feb 13, 2006

Quanity over Quality....NOT me!
I would and Do look for value in whatever it maybe, whichever sport.
Being selective and not get over balanced to anything. Jucie would eat a persons BR up before you know what happened, by gettin strung out ALL over the map with a bunch of little wagers.
Pickin WINNERS is what this is ALL about anyway. 10 plays a week would be a Huge schedule for me and is at this time of the year.
Hone Dogs would be my first choice when looking for something to take a little bit the best of it anyway.
Haveing 25 offshore accounts, one would see something every once in awhile as those offshore numbers are merely painted these days, it didnt use to be like that but it is nowdays. Only offshore accounts that are UP first such as the big stores are surely needed, but the rest are merely followers of the Don Best Screen as many of the smaller places move on AIR anyway.
1% wagers are fine if you can actually pick 54 % winners, but that is very tuff to accomplish over the course of a year.
I still take the stand that you Must wait for something of Value and then bet something More than 1-2%, and YES you must Win more of those than you loose. So it ALL comes back to the Best of the Number, Value of the Number and knowing when to step up the plate and make a Bigger unit bet.

Iceman · Feb 13, 2006

The Falls said:
You're kidding right?
Half points don't make and break winners. Games rarely, rarely land on the line. Not being a sucker separates winners and losers over the haul more so than the line itself.

if you beleive that than I all I can say is good luck. I guarantee you I hit 5 games last week that 75% of the people who had my side lost or push, because I shopped till i dropped to find these numbers.

TheFalls · Feb 13, 2006

I don't only believe that-it's a fact.

GREENHEAD · Feb 13, 2006

Ice Man, you would go broke,just a matter of time.Good luck of course,but your 4 simple directions to success will bankrupt you,just a matter of time.I disagree with all 4 of your steps,but good luck.

Iceman · Feb 13, 2006

J-man, Insiders and others.
I think 95% of all people on this forum don't keep accurate records and would be STUNNED if they knew thier real win pct.
57%-60% will not happen after 500 plays, no way, way too much luck involved in this.
You can have your 57%(highly doubt this would ever happen) over 500 plays and you are only up 49 units.

Iceman · Feb 13, 2006

GREENHEAD said:
Ice Man, you would go broke,just a matter of time.Good luck of course,but your 4 simple directions to success will bankrupt you,just a matter of time.I disagree with all 4 of your steps,but good luck.

how would you tackle this?

Iceman · Feb 13, 2006

The Falls said:
I don't only believe that-it's a fact.

I have an expierment for you to try. Scalp and Middle every game you that you can in hoops in the next few months and than tell me what book you won the money vs and what one you lost to and than tell me that an extra point on a hoop game don't matter. I used to think just like you until i have bet 500+ games in the last few months and and have beat the same books and reloaded and the other ones like clockwork.

nimue77 · Feb 13, 2006

Beliefs like your own is what seperates winners from losers, your belief being the losing one.

The Falls said:
You're kidding right?
Half points don't make and break winners. Games rarely, rarely land on the line. Not being a sucker separates winners and losers over the haul more so than the line itself.

Insiders · Feb 13, 2006

ice man said:
J-man, Insiders and others.
I think 95% of all people on this forum don't keep accurate records and would be STUNNED if they knew thier real win pct.
57%-60% will not happen after 500 plays, no way, way too much luck involved in this.
You can have your 57%(highly doubt this would ever happen) over 500 plays and you are only up 49 units.

I kept VERY accurate records dureing the cfb season, as many others did as well in the cfb forum right here on the Ole Rx. Even posted YTD records Every week like some did. Had a Very succesful cfb season as well as Bowl Season. Now that the cfb is over i am VERY selective into the cbb, and Pro sports are Exactly what is says they are Pro's.
Looking very much forward to the baseball season as that means August and the cfb are right around the corner.
I myself could not even think about makeing 500 plays per year.
AS my lawyer says about life.....He is lookin for Quailty NOT Quanity!
I do believe that the VIG will eat those folks alive that are lookin to make a whole bunch of little bity plays up over the course of time.

nimue77 · Feb 13, 2006

Nah. The quality makes up for the vig.

Insiders said:
I kept VERY accurate records dureing the cfb season, as many others did as well in the cfb forum right here on the Ole Rx. Even posted YTD records Every week like some did. Had a Very succesful cfb season as well as Bowl Season. Now that the cfb is over i am VERY selective into the cbb, and Pro sports are Exactly what is says they are Pro's.
Looking very much forward to the baseball season as that means August and the cfb are right around the corner.
I myself could not even think about makeing 500 plays per year.
AS my lawyer says about life.....He is lookin for Quailty NOT Quanity!
I do believe that the VIG will eat those folks alive that are lookin to make a whole bunch of little bity plays up over the course of time.

TheFalls · Feb 13, 2006

ice man said:
I have an expierment for you to try. Scalp and Middle every game you that you can in hoops in the next few months and than tell me what book you won the money vs and what one you lost to and than tell me that an extra point on a hoop game don't matter. I used to think just like you until i have bet 500+ games in the last few months and and have beat the same books and reloaded and the other ones like clockwork.

I don't have time to scalp and that is too many games for me. My point is that if you are on the right side or the wrong side, 9 out of 10 times that half point or point won't help you. That's why buying points is allowed. They know it rarely helps.