How would you bet this? (need opinions)

Iceman · Feb 17, 2006

example: you make a bet on team A($100) getting +7.5 (-110) 12 hours before tipoff, you get home from work(5 minutes before tipoff) and the line is now -5.5 everywhere do you:

A) just keep the +7.5 and know you got the best line all day

B) buy a 2 point middle with Team B -5.5/+7.5 Team A

C) go to the Pinny drop down screen get Team B -7.5 +120 for a scalp and guarantee profit

D) get rid of half of your Team A +7.5 and buy a -5.5 for a bet that looks like this: $50 Team A +7.5 and a $50 middle Team A +7.5 with Team B -5.5 (2 bets)

E) none of the above

I would really like to hear how most people would handle this, I have numerous situations like this lately and would like to see if I am missing something.

Fishhead · Feb 17, 2006

Middle 30% of it, scalp 30% of it, and stick with the remainder.

This is a general description and percentages, but you get my drift.

Fishhead · Feb 17, 2006

Each game can be so much different in how I approach it......so many factors.

GREAT question though.

scarab · Feb 17, 2006

i think A and E are the same......i would let it ride

Iceman · Feb 17, 2006

Fishhead said:
Each game can be so much different in how I approach it......so many factors.

GREAT question though.

Really intersested in what you had to say Fish. I know you have said that you have "both sides" of a game 85%-90% of time. Does that mean it is evenly bet on both sides ( I imagine not) or is it bet in a way that you are slighty exposed on one side.

edub69 · Feb 17, 2006

It depends if you made the opening bet looking for the scalp or middle, or if it was just a play you liked. IMO, unless you are scalping and middling as a consistent strategy, you should try to stay away from it. If you try to be selective about it you might just be negating some otherwise winning plays. Of course, if something about the way a line moves makes you hesitant about your original wager, then by all means scalp out of it at a small profit.

Insiders · Feb 17, 2006

Buy back the -5.5 for about 35-40% of the wager and keep the rest.

jwunderdog · Feb 17, 2006

keep it all at +7.5, you have the advantage, why pay juice and reduce your advantage?

GREENHEAD · Feb 17, 2006

Insiders said:
Buy back the -5.5 for about 35-40% of the wager and keep the rest.

No way I would do that. No value in the -5.5.I'd stick with A.But thats just me.

Faceless · Feb 17, 2006

When you placed a bet, team had about 26% chance to win straight up. Now that team would be a 70% favorite straight up.

With point speard, we can assume that percentages earlier were 50/50. Now your team is -5.5 favorite and your chance to cover +7.5 bet is about 90%.

I would let it ride. Gettting odds -110 with chance to win about 90% is huge advantage.

Insiders · Feb 17, 2006

Understand ALL points here. When buying back "part" of the bet this opens the numbers of 6 and 7 for the middle. Besides how many times have you seen a "steam" team move 2 points and then fall within one of the closer? Yes thats right MANY ! JMHO.

jwunderdog · Feb 17, 2006

no where near 90% chance of a cover. I will explain to you my math but it is based on a couple of assumptions. How much do you think 2 points is worth?

Faceless · Feb 17, 2006

jwunderdog said:
no where near 90% chance of a cover. I will explain to you my math but it is based on a couple of assumptions. How much do you think 2 points is worth?

Yep, you are correct. Somehow I calculated from +7.5 to -5.5 and got 13 points :icon_conf

. Of course chance to cover is about 74%. Stupid me