This post by DougJ:
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=346535
got me thinking about something I'd tried on the Mansion Exchange a few months ago, but never really followed up on. What would happen if you offered both sides of every NBA game at -103? Here's what happened the one day I tried it, November 23:
11 Games, $100 a piece. I got 3 of them at +103 on both sides for an easy $9.00 profit. The other 8 had action on only one side, but split giving me another $12 in profit. I left for Thanksgiving the next day, and never really followed up on this with more research, trials, or analysis. But seeing DougJ's post got me thinking again.
What do you think would happen if you tried this for an entire NBA season? Every game, every night. Spectacular failure? Spectacular success? Or would it all just even out over the course of 1,000 + games?
On November 23 I posted all of my offers simultaneously around Noon, and left them there for the day. When the line stayed still (3 games), I got balanced action, and a nice easy scalp. Whenever the line moved (8 games), opportunistic Mansion betters always pounced on the better line and ignored the other side, leaving me exposed and with a bad number, but at +103.
You'd need to hit 49.27% to break even at +103. If you could do that, the 3/11 of games (or so) where you could play both sides at +103 could provide all the profit. Part of me thinks it's very possible and profitable, but another part thinks that always having the worse number would be too much to overcome over the course of a season.
Any thoughts?
One more thing to consider, I believe that if you post an offer on Mansion Exchange at -104, your offer of -104 trumps their (standard offer of) -104. In which case, you would only need to hit 49.02% (at +104) to break even. Can anyone confirm this?
Thanks for looking!
:howdy:
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=346535
got me thinking about something I'd tried on the Mansion Exchange a few months ago, but never really followed up on. What would happen if you offered both sides of every NBA game at -103? Here's what happened the one day I tried it, November 23:
11 Games, $100 a piece. I got 3 of them at +103 on both sides for an easy $9.00 profit. The other 8 had action on only one side, but split giving me another $12 in profit. I left for Thanksgiving the next day, and never really followed up on this with more research, trials, or analysis. But seeing DougJ's post got me thinking again.
What do you think would happen if you tried this for an entire NBA season? Every game, every night. Spectacular failure? Spectacular success? Or would it all just even out over the course of 1,000 + games?
On November 23 I posted all of my offers simultaneously around Noon, and left them there for the day. When the line stayed still (3 games), I got balanced action, and a nice easy scalp. Whenever the line moved (8 games), opportunistic Mansion betters always pounced on the better line and ignored the other side, leaving me exposed and with a bad number, but at +103.
You'd need to hit 49.27% to break even at +103. If you could do that, the 3/11 of games (or so) where you could play both sides at +103 could provide all the profit. Part of me thinks it's very possible and profitable, but another part thinks that always having the worse number would be too much to overcome over the course of a season.
Any thoughts?
One more thing to consider, I believe that if you post an offer on Mansion Exchange at -104, your offer of -104 trumps their (standard offer of) -104. In which case, you would only need to hit 49.02% (at +104) to break even. Can anyone confirm this?
Thanks for looking!
:howdy:
