Green's Official Tuesday Idol Preview

The girls are up tonight, a quick capsule on each with odds to win:

Ayla Brown +6500
BC Eagles await their power forward with a powerful voice. Ayla is polished, from a silver spoon background and that may be her downfall. A little too polished and wooden. See Amanda Avila, last year.

Becky O'Donahue +6500
AI could have a good one-on-one game between Brown and Becky. This twin starred for the Niagara Lady Eagles. She has the looks but, unfortunately, lacks the voice. She is this year's Lisa Wilson.

Brenna Gethers +8500
Remember obnoxious Mikalah last year, well meet this year's clone. Brash, cock, and annoying, but with a voice that could surprise. She has the "it" factor and will play the role of the villain.

Heather Cox +6500
The more I watch this show, the more the characters fit stereotypes. Heather hasn't gotten much pub and we'll see if she can sing. She's this year's Jessica Sierra in that she has some talent, but not defining talent.

Katharine McPhee +416
And a steal at that price. This year's rightful female fave has an angelic voice and a little bit of aw-shucks. If she doesn't fall apart under the pressure, she might make the trek all the way to the Hollywood Theater.

Kellie Pickler +800
The not quite so Carrie Underwood of this year. Small town girl, tragic story, will get the feel-good votes. Methinks she will fall just under the radar in the vocals though. A serious contender.

Kinnik Sky +6500
Our masked woman, as in no identity. She will have to come out of nowhere as she has gotten virtually no air time up until now. Either there is a reason for that or they are holding her back to shock the world. I'll guess the former.

Lisa Tucker +1430
A Green Doberman fave. This girl has star all over her. I'll fire away at 14-1 and 15-1 all day long. I suspect after tonight you won't see her at half that price. She's a youngin', but poised and experienced. Load up on Lisa and remember her name.

Mandisa Hundley +3000
No voice or body bigger than Mandisa in this contest. The all-around singer will blow some ears out and impress. A serious threat for top 5, a longshot to win.

Melissa McGhee +6500
A confidante told me they heard her sing and she was very impressive in Hollywood. She has flown under the radar and thus will start off behind the eight ball. Tonight will be here time to put up or shut up.

Paris Bennett +600
Talent runs down the family tree and Paris has made her ancestors proud thus far. She's blown away the judges and audience thus far. Once again she will have to overcome her young age and nerves to battle for the title.

Stevie Scott +1554
A real darkhorse. Those that snapped her up at 65-1 are definitely holding on to a live dog. Her range may be better than anyone in the competition and she has the chops to make noise like a 12-seed during March Madness.

I guess it is kicking off for the East Coasters, so my predictions for the 4 girls to be sent home:

Becky O'Donahue
Heather Cox
Kinnik Sky
Melissa McGhee

Odds To Win American Idol

Ace Young 7/2
Katharine McPhee 4/1
Paris Bennett 5/1
Chris Daughtry 8/1
Kellie Pickler 8/1
Taylor Hicks 10/1
Lisa Tucker 11/1
Heather Cox 22/1
Will Makar 24/1
Stevie Scott 27/1
Jose ‘Sway’ Penala 29/1
Patrick Hall 31/1
Becky O’Donohue 45/1
Mandisa 47/1
Ayla Brown 65/1
Bobby Bennett 65/1
Brenna Gethers 65/1
Bucky Covington 65/1
David Radford 65/1
Elliott Yamin 65/1
Kinnik Sky 65/1
Gedeon McKinney 65/1
Melissa McGhee 65/1
Kevin Covias 65/1


For a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.

Great stuff Green Doberman!!

Thanks for sharing buddy!!

I was amazed by Paris. Not for the same reason as everyone else. I was amazed at her overperforming went under the radar. Pretty good singer, not as good as I heard though, but looked like a little kid prancing around the stage. Like a six year old spazzy kid overperforming everything in that average rendition of that song. Judges missed this one, I think they were too high with the upbeat performance after a long line of wooden ones.

Judges were hard on Stevie Scott. She didnt sing badly at all, but she was boring and showed no personality and picked a weird song that no one knew. The lip pursing thing while the judges ripped her was unattractive too. She may well be ( somewhat unfairly) going home. She was bad but others were worse. If Stevie survives, she needs to start singing pop songs and doing them well. No one cares that she can sing Opera.

Brenna Gathers was brutally awful, but she has personality and will probably get more votes than Stevie. O'Donahue was real bad too. Brenna and O'Donahue ought to be shown the door.

will be interested in Pinnies new numbers. I have a new horse.

The judges have been in love with paris ever since they found out who her family was. I happened to think she was excellent tonight and she will probably coast to the final 6 or so, but after that there are better choices.

My slightly late TiVo review:

One day you will look back and say tonight was the first night you saw Lisa Tucker.
Green's opening odds on her 3/5, Pinny/Bet365 15 or 16/1.

Hmm...seems Pinny now has her as the female favorite. And I still think 4 1/2 to one is an overlay.

It's plainly obvious that 5 girls are a lock for the top 12 after tonight and the others are left fighting for the scraps.

Mandisa- booming performance, booming personality. Aside from the fact she's hefty, she's actually got a pretty smile and a pretty face. Pass go dear and advance to the top 12.

Pickler- Kelly is miles behind the top 4 vocally, but her back story and cute looks and innocence makes you root for her. She will have to screw up big time to not go to the top 12, but she's not a serious threat right now.

Becky O'd- I've O'ded on her singing, she looks good, but so do three or four others with some musical talent. I've got a better chance of waking up tomorrow with Becky than she does of winning this thing. Buh-bye.

Ayla "the Human Statue" Brown- I'm not rooting for BC women's hoops anymore, something about her annoys me. I mean her dad is senator or something, so who are we really going to root for her or poor Pickler. That being said, she did surprisingly well and it looks like her HS team won't be feeding her in the post at least one more week.

Paris- definitely the talent, but when you put her up against Lisa as two 16-year olds, there is no comparison in the "it" factor. She's a contender and will fly on through to the top 12, top 5 probably.

Stevie- the darkhorse got even darker. She's in serious danger and won't rest easy tonight. If Becky gets enough votes based on her looks, it's goodbye Stevie. I'd like to see her one more week before I decide, but I might have to go to the opera to see her ever again.

Brenna- if you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all. However, I have a sick feeling she'll get the Mikalah-pass and may be the 6th girl in the final 12. I hope it's just gas, though.

Heather Cox- utterly forgettable. Sounded really bad, looked fairly good. In a competition with several other similar contestants, she'll get lost in the shuffle. Just a matter of what week she goes, this or next.

Melissa- she was in beauty pageants? Um, where? Once again, blown away by the upper echelon. See previous contestant. Maybe her and Fishhead can do a duet at Selmon's or something.

LISA TUCKER- There's a reason Green Doberman made her a 3-5 fave. Folks, it hit me watching her. She's a combo of a young Mariah Carey and Stacey Dash. Seriously, look at it. Anyway, if she was 21 they would cancel the competition and declare her winner. Instead they will use the age angle to keep the suspense. Folks, get down on her, get down hard and heavy. This is the most poised 16 year old you will ever see and a future superstar. Down to 4/1 now, and still a bargain at that, see you at the Hollywood Theater Lisa, I'll be the creepy, pasty white guy in the front row, lol.

Kinnik- talk about a bad draw, going after Lisa is like being the Wally Pipp of American Idol. She is the only contestant whose name is a palindrome, so she has that going for her. And she did cater to my pet peeve of the contestants looking like crap on national TV (hint: lose the jeans, you're on freaking national TV). Points for that, but she's on the bubble more than a CAA team come tournament time.

McPhee for me- the front runner before the Tucker Express hit. She solidified her status, but her personality won't win her any votes. Fortunately, she has a top 3 voice and can overcome that. Still a good value play and a solid leadoff performance for her.

Summary:
4 girls are thoroughbreds, the rest are donkeys.
Lisa, Paris, Mandisa, Katharine are at a completely different level vocally and a bet on anyone else is akin to burning your money. If you have thoughts on betting for anyone else, send your money to me and I will just donate it to World Vision instead.

Pickler will make it through on cuteness alone, but her nerves and vocal ability will send her home eventually.

As for the rest, well we may be able to book them pretty cheaply for the Bash in the next two weeks.

Good luck to all.

odds are back up at Pinnacle. Took McPhee at +443, was very surprised she was still that high. Clear girl favorite at this point. Was planning to take Lisa Tucker, but the odds dropped thru the floor on her. I dont like her at 4-1, mainly cause in the end, I think she finishes second to McPhee among the girls. Tucker was simply light years better than Paris Bennet tonight. Light years. Tucker is significantly better vocally and an excellent performer. No comparison between her and the clownish Bennett.

Havnt seen the guys yet, so cant comment too much, but from what I have seen of them, many are VERY weak. A few are very strong.

only interested in Tucker, McPhee and Kellie Pickler at this point among girls. Dark horse- Mellissa McGee. Sang well, but I dont think she can beat the 3 I mentioned.

Pickler is good, but I get the impression she wont do well when she is forced to do non-country songs later in the show. She may even forget the words due to nervoussness. Shes good in her country genre, but outside of that its a question mark.She has the voice to do well, voice is fine, but I'm not sure she can take the heat.

WSEX has their interactives up as well. These are excellent opportunities to make money and useful hedging tools as well.

I think they are sending the worst two vote getters home.

who should go:

Brenna Gathers
B O'Donahue

who will go:

Stevie Scott
B O'Donahue

my guesses.


Stevie will probably get the lowest amount of votes. Judges ripped her and she took it without saying anything to help her cause. just weird lip pursing. she can sing, I hope she gets thru somehow since I got her at 65-1 and she figures out its a pop star competrition and mmoves rapidly in that direction.

But I cant figure out who is going to vote for Stevie tonight. Black people? no. rednecks? no. guys who like hot chicks? no. who then? people who like quirky girls and people who like boring performances the judges ripped thats about it. Her singing wasnt bad enough to warrant dismissal and she may be a legit turnaround project if she survives but she wont.

sayonara Stevie.

was surfing around looking at golf for tomorrow and found a surprise. Betjamaica has lines up under props. Lisa Tucker is 8-1. grabbed that one!

K McPhee is 5-1, grabbed that too. clear value on these bets at those odds.