Online blackjack examination

Tulsa · Feb 22, 2006

Guys, I promised to share results by this Saturday, but due to some real world interruptions I have not been able to get rolling on the sample set. I'd like to get as close to 1,500 hands as possible, regardless of what bankroll it takes...within reason.

I will have to do this within the next short while but have no definite date for producing the plays for our examination. I want to do a good job with it and be as fair and unbiased as possible. I will follow through with what I said I would do....I just won't have it in time to meet my self-imposed due date of Saturday.

Also, I do want to say a couple of things to be fair. First, I have little reason to doubt people that come here and say they believe the game they were playing had bad odds. I believe I have seen that as well.

However, I did not play every casino online and I didn't play 5Dimes casino, so from personal experience I cannot say, "ALL" blackjack online is rigged. No one can say that and still be honest and fair. In fairness, I cannot say that 5Dimes or BetJamaica or many other online casinos have rigged blackjack from my experience. They may be as fair as fair can be.

However, I have witnessed and recorded and examined the results from playing blackjack at six or seven sites that most would recognize if I mentioned them. They were top-notch sites and yet the play with them did not match statistical expectations. On the other hand (pun intended) this was about two years ago and they may have even cleaned up their acts....I don't know. I have not played online blackjack to any extent in two years, just piddled around here and there once in a while.

So, in short, I still am going to do the sampling of play from a selected site. I am going to do it carefully and in a fair manner and I am going to present every hand, every wager and every result for your examination. I look forward to having this ready, but it won't be this week.

Finally, Patrick McIrish, I have no ill-will toward you. I apologize for coming across in an argumentative fashion. I have to learn that people can disagree with me without feeling they are disparaging my character. I don't mind if you disagree with me.

This will be the thread I use to present the play results, so keep an eye out and the plays will be presented soon. Good luck. tulsa

Dante · Feb 22, 2006

Wow!!!

RobFunk · Feb 22, 2006

I wonder what online casinos everyone thinks are the most rigged?

But I still dont get why people play video game blackjack when you can play live blackjack online and the women are friendly and decent to look at and you KNOW it's a fair game.

trytrytry · Feb 22, 2006

Tulsa has forgotten more about statistics than the rest of us know now.

he has the truth truth truth.

Tulsa what is a tulsa special hoops play for tonight. you need to share your system plays with us after you lock them in for yourself!!!

Insiders · Feb 22, 2006

Tulsa THANKS in advance.

I still say that ALL on-line BJ uses the SAME software, no matter what sportsbook you are at.
But looking forward to your stats.
As you mentioned "no matter what size bankroll the 1500 hands takes" Still think you well lose More than 400 playing the 1500 hands!

Again thanks in advance.

Tulsa · Feb 22, 2006

trytrytry, that is very kind of you. As far as any great basketball plays for today, I haven't even looked at the card enough to know.... And I need all you great cappers to post up your plays so I can see what's what.

I have to agree with RobFunk. I am sure that if I were to play online blackjack for recreation, it would be with the 'live' webcam. I am interested to try that. I am only playing the 'software' blackjack for this sampling in order that we can see if there is any indication of bizarre results. tulsa

buddyboy · Feb 22, 2006

I got the following info from wizard of odds website... some of it may help you with your calculations.

you may need to go to his site and use his house edge calculator for each blackjack game you play depending on house rules (#of decks, # of splits...)

also since a lot of online games shuffle more often (some even after each hand) you may want to read: The effect on the house edge of the continuous shuffling machines vs. the cut card. which is located on his site.

good luck:

I played t hands of blackjack one at a time, flat betting and religiously following basic strategy. My final outcome was a gain of r (a negative r represents a loss). The house edge under the rules I played was h. What is the probability of losing this much or more in a fair game?

Using Excel type this into any cell, substituting the correct values for h, t, and r:
=normsdist((r+t*h+0.5)/(t^0.5*1.16)).

The 1.16 is the standard deviation per hand. This will vary slightly from one set of rule to another but I feel 1.16 is a good benchmark. Let's take an example. Suppose the number of hands is 1000, the house edge is 0.41%, and the player lost 100 units. The formula for the probability of losing this many units or more is =normsdist((-100+1000*0.0041+0.5)/(1000^0.5*1.16)) = normsdist(-2.600700765) = 0.004651712 .

This appendix presents information pertinent to the standard deviation in blackjack. It should be noted my numbers come in a little higher than those using Stanford Wong's Blackjack Count Analyzer. My standard deviations come in about 0.016 higher. That said, the following table indicates the possible outcomes based on a 200 million hand simulation. Atlantic City rules (8 decks, double any first two cards, double after a split, split up to four hands, no surrender, dealer stands on soft 17) were used.

<CENTER><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=1 bgColor=#e0d18b border=1><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle colSpan=3>Final outcome in blackjack</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Net win</TD><TD align=middle>Number</TD><TD align=middle>Probability</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>-8</TD><TD align=right>48</TD><TD align=right>0.00000024</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>-7</TD><TD align=right>653</TD><TD align=right>0.00000327</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>-6</TD><TD align=right>4654</TD><TD align=right>0.00002327</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>-5</TD><TD align=right>22415</TD><TD align=right>0.00011208</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>-4</TD><TD align=right>114254</TD><TD align=right>0.00057127</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>-3</TD><TD align=right>465229</TD><TD align=right>0.00232615</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>-2</TD><TD align=right>9248859</TD><TD align=right>0.04624430</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>-1</TD><TD align=right>85919012</TD><TD align=right>0.42959500</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>17594957</TD><TD align=right>0.08797480</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>64221574</TD><TD align=right>0.32110800</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>1.5</TD><TD align=right>9052402</TD><TD align=right>0.04526200</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>12616269</TD><TD align=right>0.06308130</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>525109</TD><TD align=right>0.00262555</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>169229</TD><TD align=right>0.00084615</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>33994</TD><TD align=right>0.00016997</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>9610</TD><TD align=right>0.00004805</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>1576</TD><TD align=right>0.00000788</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>156</TD><TD align=right>0.00000078</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>
The table shows the following information:

Probability of net win = 43.31%
Probability of tie = 8.80%
Probability of net loss = 47.89%
Average loss = 1.11
Average win = 1.22
Standard deviation = 1.17

The next table shows the stardard variation under other rule variations. Note that the most important variable is whether the player is allowed to double on soft totals, followed by being allowed to double after a split.
<CENTER><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=1 bgColor=#e0d18b border=1><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Standard Deviation in Blackjack</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Number
of Decks</TD><TD align=middle>Maximum
Splits</TD><TD align=middle>Double
after
Split</TD><TD align=middle>Soft
Doubling
Allowed</TD><TD align=middle>Standard
Deviation</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=middle>No</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=right>1.1450</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=right>1.1582</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=right>1.1638</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=right>1.1666</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=right>1.1676</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=right>1.1611</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=right>1.1680</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=right>1.1695</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=middle>No</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=right>1.1468</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=middle>Yes</TD><TD align=middle>No</TD><TD align=right>1.1417</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>
Following is the standard deviation by playing 1 to 3 hands at the same time, the same amount bet on each hand. These numbers are courtesy of Marsha Ness, who used Blackjack Audit simulation software. The rules are standard Atlantic City: 6 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, double any two cards, double after split, no surrender, split up to 4 hands, no resplitting aces, no drawing to split aces.
<CENTER><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=1 bgColor=#e0d18b border=1><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Standard Deviation by Number of Hands</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Number
of Hands</TD><TD align=middle>Standard
Deviation</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1.15514</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1.90837</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2.63198</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>
On the same topic according to Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong (page 203) the variance for similar rules is 1.32 and the covariance is 0.48. The total variance of n hands would be 1.32*n + 0.48*n*(n-1). Take the final square root to get the standard deviation.
The next table is a practical application of the standard deviation. It is useful if you wish to know the probability of a large net loss or win after a session of flat betting. The left column represents the number of hands in the session. The top row represents the probability that the result, after adjusting for the house edge, will exceed the table value. The body of the table represents the number of units won or lost, after adjusting for the house edge.
For example suppose a blackjack player loses 100 units over a session of 1000 bets. Assuming an 0.4% house edge, 4 of the losses are expected due to the house edge and 96 are the result of bad luck. The player wishes to know the probability of a loss of this magnitude. The table shows the probability of a loss of 95 units to be 0.5%. Thus the player can expect to lose 95 units or more about 1 session in 200.
<CENTER><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=1 bgColor=#e0d18b border=1><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle colSpan=11>Probability of Loss Table</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>Number
of Hands</TD><TD align=middle>10%</TD><TD align=middle>5%</TD><TD align=middle>2.5%</TD><TD align=middle>1%</TD><TD align=middle>0.5%</TD><TD align=middle>0.25%</TD><TD align=middle>0.1%</TD><TD align=middle>0.05%</TD><TD align=middle>0.01%</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>100</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>30</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>39</TD><TD align=right>43</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>200</TD><TD align=right>21</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>32</TD><TD align=right>39</TD><TD align=right>43</TD><TD align=right>46</TD><TD align=right>51</TD><TD align=right>55</TD><TD align=right>60</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>300</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>40</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>52</TD><TD align=right>57</TD><TD align=right>63</TD><TD align=right>67</TD><TD align=right>74</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>400</TD><TD align=right>30</TD><TD align=right>38</TD><TD align=right>46</TD><TD align=right>54</TD><TD align=right>60</TD><TD align=right>66</TD><TD align=right>73</TD><TD align=right>77</TD><TD align=right>85</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>500</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>43</TD><TD align=right>51</TD><TD align=right>61</TD><TD align=right>67</TD><TD align=right>73</TD><TD align=right>81</TD><TD align=right>86</TD><TD align=right>95</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>600</TD><TD align=right>37</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>56</TD><TD align=right>67</TD><TD align=right>74</TD><TD align=right>80</TD><TD align=right>89</TD><TD align=right>95</TD><TD align=right>105</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>700</TD><TD align=right>40</TD><TD align=right>51</TD><TD align=right>61</TD><TD align=right>72</TD><TD align=right>80</TD><TD align=right>87</TD><TD align=right>96</TD><TD align=right>102</TD><TD align=right>113</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>800</TD><TD align=right>42</TD><TD align=right>54</TD><TD align=right>65</TD><TD align=right>77</TD><TD align=right>85</TD><TD align=right>93</TD><TD align=right>103</TD><TD align=right>109</TD><TD align=right>121</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>900</TD><TD align=right>45</TD><TD align=right>58</TD><TD align=right>69</TD><TD align=right>82</TD><TD align=right>91</TD><TD align=right>99</TD><TD align=right>109</TD><TD align=right>116</TD><TD align=right>128</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>1000</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>61</TD><TD align=right>72</TD><TD align=right>86</TD><TD align=right>95</TD><TD align=right>104</TD><TD align=right>115</TD><TD align=right>122</TD><TD align=right>135</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>2000</TD><TD align=right>67</TD><TD align=right>86</TD><TD align=right>103</TD><TD align=right>122</TD><TD align=right>135</TD><TD align=right>147</TD><TD align=right>162</TD><TD align=right>173</TD><TD align=right>191</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>3000</TD><TD align=right>82</TD><TD align=right>105</TD><TD align=right>126</TD><TD align=right>149</TD><TD align=right>165</TD><TD align=right>180</TD><TD align=right>199</TD><TD align=right>211</TD><TD align=right>234</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>4000</TD><TD align=right>95</TD><TD align=right>122</TD><TD align=right>145</TD><TD align=right>172</TD><TD align=right>191</TD><TD align=right>208</TD><TD align=right>229</TD><TD align=right>244</TD><TD align=right>270</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>5000</TD><TD align=right>106</TD><TD align=right>136</TD><TD align=right>162</TD><TD align=right>193</TD><TD align=right>213</TD><TD align=right>232</TD><TD align=right>256</TD><TD align=right>273</TD><TD align=right>302</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>6000</TD><TD align=right>116</TD><TD align=right>149</TD><TD align=right>178</TD><TD align=right>211</TD><TD align=right>234</TD><TD align=right>255</TD><TD align=right>281</TD><TD align=right>299</TD><TD align=right>331</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>7000</TD><TD align=right>125</TD><TD align=right>161</TD><TD align=right>192</TD><TD align=right>228</TD><TD align=right>252</TD><TD align=right>275</TD><TD align=right>303</TD><TD align=right>323</TD><TD align=right>357</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>8000</TD><TD align=right>134</TD><TD align=right>172</TD><TD align=right>205</TD><TD align=right>244</TD><TD align=right>270</TD><TD align=right>294</TD><TD align=right>324</TD><TD align=right>345</TD><TD align=right>382</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>9000</TD><TD align=right>142</TD><TD align=right>183</TD><TD align=right>217</TD><TD align=right>259</TD><TD align=right>286</TD><TD align=right>312</TD><TD align=right>344</TD><TD align=right>366</TD><TD align=right>405</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>10000</TD><TD align=right>150</TD><TD align=right>192</TD><TD align=right>229</TD><TD align=right>272</TD><TD align=right>302</TD><TD align=right>329</TD><TD align=right>363</TD><TD align=right>386</TD><TD align=right>427</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>20000</TD><TD align=right>212</TD><TD align=right>272</TD><TD align=right>324</TD><TD align=right>385</TD><TD align=right>427</TD><TD align=right>465</TD><TD align=right>513</TD><TD align=right>546</TD><TD align=right>604</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>30000</TD><TD align=right>259</TD><TD align=right>333</TD><TD align=right>397</TD><TD align=right>472</TD><TD align=right>523</TD><TD align=right>569</TD><TD align=right>628</TD><TD align=right>668</TD><TD align=right>739</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>40000</TD><TD align=right>299</TD><TD align=right>385</TD><TD align=right>458</TD><TD align=right>545</TD><TD align=right>603</TD><TD align=right>657</TD><TD align=right>725</TD><TD align=right>772</TD><TD align=right>854</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>50000</TD><TD align=right>335</TD><TD align=right>430</TD><TD align=right>513</TD><TD align=right>609</TD><TD align=right>675</TD><TD align=right>735</TD><TD align=right>811</TD><TD align=right>863</TD><TD align=right>955</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>60000</TD><TD align=right>367</TD><TD align=right>471</TD><TD align=right>561</TD><TD align=right>667</TD><TD align=right>739</TD><TD align=right>805</TD><TD align=right>888</TD><TD align=right>945</TD><TD align=right>1046</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>70000</TD><TD align=right>396</TD><TD align=right>509</TD><TD align=right>606</TD><TD align=right>721</TD><TD align=right>798</TD><TD align=right>869</TD><TD align=right>959</TD><TD align=right>1021</TD><TD align=right>1129</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>80000</TD><TD align=right>423</TD><TD align=right>544</TD><TD align=right>648</TD><TD align=right>771</TD><TD align=right>853</TD><TD align=right>930</TD><TD align=right>1025</TD><TD align=right>1092</TD><TD align=right>1207</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>90000</TD><TD align=right>449</TD><TD align=right>577</TD><TD align=right>688</TD><TD align=right>817</TD><TD align=right>905</TD><TD align=right>986</TD><TD align=right>1088</TD><TD align=right>1158</TD><TD align=right>1281</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>100000</TD><TD align=right>473</TD><TD align=right>608</TD><TD align=right>725</TD><TD align=right>862</TD><TD align=right>954</TD><TD align=right>1039</TD><TD align=right>1146</TD><TD align=right>1220</TD><TD align=right>1350</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>200000</TD><TD align=right>669</TD><TD align=right>860</TD><TD align=right>1025</TD><TD align=right>1219</TD><TD align=right>1349</TD><TD align=right>1470</TD><TD align=right>1621</TD><TD align=right>1726</TD><TD align=right>1909</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>300000</TD><TD align=right>820</TD><TD align=right>1054</TD><TD align=right>1256</TD><TD align=right>1493</TD><TD align=right>1653</TD><TD align=right>1800</TD><TD align=right>1986</TD><TD align=right>2114</TD><TD align=right>2338</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>400000</TD><TD align=right>947</TD><TD align=right>1217</TD><TD align=right>1450</TD><TD align=right>1723</TD><TD align=right>1908</TD><TD align=right>2078</TD><TD align=right>2293</TD><TD align=right>2441</TD><TD align=right>2700</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>500000</TD><TD align=right>1059</TD><TD align=right>1360</TD><TD align=right>1621</TD><TD align=right>1927</TD><TD align=right>2134</TD><TD align=right>2324</TD><TD align=right>2564</TD><TD align=right>2729</TD><TD align=right>3018</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>600000</TD><TD align=right>1160</TD><TD align=right>1490</TD><TD align=right>1776</TD><TD align=right>2111</TD><TD align=right>2337</TD><TD align=right>2546</TD><TD align=right>2808</TD><TD align=right>2990</TD><TD align=right>3307</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>700000</TD><TD align=right>1252</TD><TD align=right>1610</TD><TD align=right>1918</TD><TD align=right>2280</TD><TD align=right>2525</TD><TD align=right>2750</TD><TD align=right>3033</TD><TD align=right>3229</TD><TD align=right>3572</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>800000</TD><TD align=right>1339</TD><TD align=right>1721</TD><TD align=right>2050</TD><TD align=right>2437</TD><TD align=right>2699</TD><TD align=right>2939</TD><TD align=right>3243</TD><TD align=right>3452</TD><TD align=right>3818</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>900000</TD><TD align=right>1420</TD><TD align=right>1825</TD><TD align=right>2175</TD><TD align=right>2585</TD><TD align=right>2863</TD><TD align=right>3118</TD><TD align=right>3439</TD><TD align=right>3661</TD><TD align=right>4050</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>1000000</TD><TD align=right>1497</TD><TD align=right>1924</TD><TD align=right>2292</TD><TD align=right>2725</TD><TD align=right>3017</TD><TD align=right>3286</TD><TD align=right>3626</TD><TD align=right>3859</TD><TD align=right>4269</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>

Heatwave · Feb 22, 2006

Far be it from me to question, but do you think that 1,500 hands is enough to make a judgement? I know you probably don't have time (and if rigged, the bankroll) to do a million trials or more, but I am not sure that anything will be proved.

My thought is that online casinos, at least the ones that I have played at, are no more or less rigged than live games. Negative expectations, coupled with bad decisions and the dealer pulling some 21's out of his ass would lead one to believe that it is rigged, when in reality, that happens in any black jack game, live or online.

HW

RobFunk · Feb 22, 2006

Tulsa said:
I have to agree with RobFunk. I am sure that if I were to play online blackjack for recreation, it would be with the 'live' webcam. I am interested to try that. I am only playing the 'software' blackjack for this sampling in order that we can see if there is any indication of bizarre results. tulsa

It is pretty neat. It's smooth, it's fast and the cards are very big. Actually I had never seen cards that big until I took a look at it. When you join the table the dealer waves and says hi. You are playing with other people just like at a casino. Golden palace and mvp sports has it I believe.

Even the thought of you just playing to sample video game blackjack makes me cringe.

Tulsa · Feb 22, 2006

Heatwave, nothing can really be proved. There could be some indication if we see certain things, but you're right... Nothing can be proved at all. Interesting and very questionable results might be seen. OR....maybe it will look as normal as can be.

Insiders, thanks. I am afraid that you are too correct that $400 would not be enough to get 1,500 hands even if I flat-wagered $1/hand and I'm not going to flat-wager. It was when I varied my wagers in the past that I saw real problems with the results. Flat-wagering is the only way I've played online blackjack and seen regular results. However, begin to vary wager amount? Then I would get hammered in strange and unusual ways.

buddyboy, that's great stuff! I will go examine the wizard of odds site. I appreciate it. tulsa

cincy_ · Feb 22, 2006

I look at this and say SOMETHING DOESN'T JIVE

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=1 bgColor=#e0d18b border=1><TBODY><TR><TD align=right>-1</TD><TD align=right>85919012</TD><TD align=right>0.42959500</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>17594957</TD><TD align=right>0.08797480</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>64221574</TD><TD align=right>0.32110800</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>1.5</TD><TD align=right>9052402</TD><TD align=right>0.04526200</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>12616269</TD><TD align=right>0.06308130</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Why is the chance for 0 so low? and why the chance of 1.5 lower than that of 2?

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Tulsa · Feb 22, 2006

Tang

If I were to use your phone casino, I'm sure we would see some distressing patterns!! LOL! tulsa

Tulsa · Feb 22, 2006

cincy_ said:
I look at this and say SOMETHING DOESN'T JIVE

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=1 bgColor=#e0d18b border=1><TBODY><TR><TD align=right>-1</TD><TD align=right>85919012</TD><TD align=right>0.42959500</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>17594957</TD><TD align=right>0.08797480</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>64221574</TD><TD align=right>0.32110800</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>1.5</TD><TD align=right>9052402</TD><TD align=right>0.04526200</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>12616269</TD><TD align=right>0.06308130</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Why is the chance for 0 so low? and why the chance of 1.5 lower than that of 2?

Well, the 0 row is just saying the odds for a 'push' are about 8.8% and I always understood it to be a little more than 8% so that's right in there.....

However, with quick examination, I'm not sure when the 1.5 payout situation occurs (some split and double down situation)

ensign_lee · Feb 22, 2006

Tulsa said:
However, with quick examination, I'm not sure when the 1.5 payout situation occurs (some split and double down situation)

When blackjack occurs, right?

Tulsa · Feb 22, 2006

LOL! ensign I was trying to figure out what double down and/or split situations with a loss of what number of splits gave a win of 1.5. I wasn't even thinking about receiving a Blackjack hand. LOL! What a dunce I can be.

Guys, we will not be trying to see if the plays fit the distribution as shown above.... While that will be interesting, it is not indicitive of a 'foul' game and we are not going to have enough hands to do that type of analysis.

FURTHER, and what is humorous, is that I could have you play a game with me where the breakdown of results fit exactly within the distribution above and if you vary your wagers at all, I could still 'cheat' you and have the distribution look 'proper' meaning that the game looks clean on paper, but that I gained more than the house edge by cherry picking your losses and wins depending on your wager amount. tulsa

WVU · Feb 22, 2006

I will post these lines assuming you will play correct strategy throughout including splits and doubles.

Lets assume a $400 starting bankroll. after 1500 hands of $1 BJ your bankroll will be:

$0 +1200
$1-200 +600
$201-300 +200
$301-400 -500
$401-500 +175
$501-600 +400
$600+ +1000

maxdemo · Feb 22, 2006

Tulsa said:
However, begin to vary wager amount? Then I would get hammered in strange and unusual ways.

I could not agree more with this statement...I play Baccarat and thats all I play. And let me tell you that i have seen cards that would make one wonder how the Bank/Dealer won that hand.
For example I played over 200 hands this moring and I know WTF I am doing in this game. I was up a good bit until they started pulling shit like this:

First 2 cards:
Banker : 2-K**what I bet on (2)
Dealer: 7-6 (3)
3rd card:
Banker : 5 (7)
Player : 5 (8)**winner

Then I would hammer the other side knowing that in Live Baccarat the odds are the other side will win...beleive me I have been playing this game for over 10 years

First 2 Cards:
Banker: 10 - 5 **What i bet (5)
Player: 8-5 (3)

3rd Card:
Banker: 3 (my total = 8)
Player: another 6 and player wins again

I know this could happen and probably does...every now and then. But I saw this 5 times today!!

I took this book that i played at this morning for over 8k on a $100 deposit and have since been giving it back slowly...I know its my fault for playing when I know it "Could" be rigged.

Heatwave · Feb 22, 2006

maxdemo said:
I could not agree more with this statement...I play Baccarat and thats all I play. And let me tell you that i have seen cards that would make one wonder how the Bank/Dealer won that hand.
For example I played over 200 hands this moring and I know WTF I am doing in this game. I was up a good bit until they started pulling shit like this:

First 2 cards:
Banker : 2-K**what I bet on (2)
Dealer: 7-6 (3)
3rd card:
Banker : 5 (7)
Player : 5 (8)**winner

Then I would hammer the other side knowing that in Live Baccarat the odds are the other side will win...beleive me I have been playing this game for over 10 years

First 2 Cards:
Banker: 10 - 5 **What i bet (5)
Player: 8-5 (3)

3rd Card:
Banker: 3 (my total = 8)
Player: another 6 and player wins again

I know this could happen and probably does...every now and then. But I saw this 5 times today!!

I took this book that i played at this morning for over 8k on a $100 deposit and have since been giving it back slowly...I know its my fault for playing when I know it "Could" be rigged.

I am a bit confused. Isn't baccarat like betting a coin flip? How can one know "WTF they are doing" in a game that you have no control over? You may be right in that online casinos may rig things on the amount bet, but 200 trials is not enough to determine anything, and over those 200 hands I am sure that you saw some good breaks which went your way. No disrepect intended here, just trying to understand.

HW

maxdemo · Feb 22, 2006

Heatwave said:
I am a bit confused. Isn't baccarat like betting a coin flip? HW

No its not like betting a coin flip...in fact there are trends that will happen in game play that dictate where you should put your $$ on for a win.

For me its easier to play than BJ..because i get to choose what side I want to win or place a wager on. Its not me against the dealer since you can bet the dealer and win some $$ minus the juice.

Thats one thing that blows my mind is that Baccarat is not that popular...but then again it might be because the limits are high. Last in Vegas at the Wynn hotel they had nothing lower than $300.00 per hand. I was at the 1k table. A guy sits next to me and gets 25k in chips...within 1 hour he had it up to $300k..NO Bull...300k!!