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Thread: Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

  1. #26  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ats247
    ACE-kinda related to email of u got about key #'s in NBA.

    here's something for NFL and is this type of thing that could somehow be used for formula of other sports?


    in all games since 1989, the team with more rushing attempts is
    3223-7494 SU/ 2909-952-115 ats

    now this doesnt really help much unless your able to acuratly predict which team will have more att. kinda see it as chicken vs egg, which came 1st.

    do teams win and cover because they run the ball more or
    does team have more att because they get the lead and holding onto win
    this is factor in by "time".....which team control the ball more...and yes I knew those numbers.....good question ace-ace
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  2. #27  
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    ACE - I believe this system will also work in college football. However,would there have to be some kind of home field advantage thrown into the system? Also, because there are so many teams you would have to have people just doing certain conferences - but I believe it will work! Whats your opinion?
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  3. #28  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueLab
    ACE - I believe this system will also work in college football. However,would there have to be some kind of home field advantage thrown into the system? Also, because there are so many teams you would have to have people just doing certain conferences - but I believe it will work! Whats your opinion?
    I KNOW OF TWO PEOPLE THAT IS GOING TO TRY THIS ON A SPREADSHEET.....ONE BUTTON UPDATES...WILL MAKE IT EASY
    ALL OF TEAM...SO THIS IS THE WAY TO GO
    IN THE NFL THERE ARE NO HOME ADVANTAGE....IF WE DO PUT A HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE IN IT WOULD BE 0-2....

    EVERY YEAR IN THE NFL ITS BALANCE HOME WAS 129 VS AWAY 127 VS ATS...
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    some #'s from espn article about myth/truths of win% related to certain stats. know your solid on football system and dont need to change it up, but thought this kinda similar and some may be interested.

    team with:
    fewer penalties win 54%
    higher avg yard per rush att win 55%
    300+yd passer win 46%
    special team TD win 42%

    these just for 03-04 season:

    trail at end of 1st Q, lose 75%
    more giveaways, lose 81%
    allow 100+yd rusher, lose 75%
    allow more sacks, lose 70%
    worse time of pss, lose 67%
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  5. #30  
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    [quote=ats247]some #'s from espn article about myth/truths of win% related to certain stats. know your solid on football system and dont need to change it up, but thought this kinda similar and some may be interested.

    team with:
    fewer penalties win 54%......................THIS IS IN MYLINE
    higher avg yard per rush att win 55%
    300+yd passer win 46%
    special team TD win 42%

    these just for 03-04 season:

    trail at end of 1st Q, lose 75%
    more giveaways, lose 81%..........THIS IS IN MYLINE
    allow 100+yd rusher, lose 75%
    allow more sacks, lose 70%
    worse time of pss, lose 67%.......THIS IS IN MYLINE

    THE TEAM THAT WINS THE T/O GAME WINS THE GAME 85% OF THE TIME
    THAT IS THE NO.1 STAT!!!!

    NO2 IS TIME
    NO3 IS PENALTIES
    NO4 LINEOFF

    ACE-ACE
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  6. #31  
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    wow, ace ace, you have a lot of good qualities. I'm impressed how much you go out of your way to help people like us. my only question left for you is, in a typical season, how many units do you expect to make?
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  7. #32  
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    Quote Originally Posted by newb411breaker19
    wow, ace ace, you have a lot of good qualities. I'm impressed how much you go out of your way to help people like us. my only question left for you is, in a typical season, how many units do you expect to make?
    2004-2005 I WAS 25-16 IN THE OVER $2000 BET AND WON $28,830
    SO IF A UNIT IS =TO $100...I GUESS I WAS +2883 UNITS UP

    2005-2006 (LAST YEAR) I WAS 36-18 IN THE OVER $2000 BETS
    AND 63-51 IN THE UNDER $1100 BET...TOTAL WAS $59,141

    SO I GUESS YOU COULD SAY I WAS UP +5914 UNITS

    ALL THIS WAS POSTED HERE AT THERX

    LAST 12 YEAR I'M 10-2

    I'M HAPPY TO WIN $10K ANY YEAR!!!!

    IF YOU ARE IN IT FOR THE LONG RUN....IT DOES NOT MATTER

    JUST WANT TO WIN MORE THAN I LOSE

    ACE-ACE
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  8. #33  
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    ACE, at $100 a unit you would actually be up 288.3 and 591.4 units, respectively.

    :suomi:
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  9. #34  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Death Eats a Cracker
    ACE, at $100 a unit you would actually be up 288.3 and 591.4 units, respectively.

    :suomi:
    forgot the "........ " thanks
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  10. #35  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE
    FOR THOSE THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW "MY LINE" WORKS

    <HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->ITS BASE ON FOUR THING
    1..LINE-OFF
    2..TIME
    3..PENALTIES
    4..TURN OVER ONLY BY THE TEAM

    LINE-OFF
    THE DIFF BETWEEN WHAT THE ODDS MAKER GIVE AND WHAT REALLY HAPPENS

    LET'S TAKE(LAST WEEK GAME BETWEEN GB AND ATL....

    THE LINE WAS ATL-9.....WHAT HAPPEN WAS GB WON BY 8+THE LINE9=17
    "THE LINE WAS OFF 17 POINTS
    THIS HAPPENS EACH WEEK AND EACH GAME

    SO YOU GIVE GB A +17 IN THEIR WEEK AND YOU GIVE ATL -17 IN THEIR WEEK.....YOU DO THIS EVERY WEEK

    THIS IS ATL............TOTAL

    PRESEASON +10
    WK1............+ 6........+16
    WK2............-2..........+14
    WK3............+10.......+24
    WK4............+14.......+38
    WK5...........-6...........+32
    WK6...........-3...........+29
    WK7...........+6...........+35
    WK8...........BYE
    WK9............+5.........+40
    WK10..........-17........+23

    GB ....DOING THE SAME THING TO THEM IS A +44

    SO YOU FIND THE DIFF/ +44 +23 = 21 FOR GB(HIGHEST NUMBER GETS THE POINTS)....THAN YOU DIV BY 10= 2.1 POINT FOR GB (ONE RULE DIFF....IF ITS OVER 50 POINTS /DIFF YOU DIV IT IN HALF...THAN DIV IT BY 100)

    THAT MEAN BASE ONLY ON "LINE-OFF G.B IS FAV BY 2.1 POINTS



    TIME

    IF ONE TEAM HAS 32 MIN THAT THE O-LINE STAYS ON THE FIELD THEY HAVE A +2.....THE OTHER TEAM HAS A -2

    DO THAT EACH WEEK......AS OF WEEK 10 GB IS +6 VS ATL+3=3 FOR GB DIV BY 5=.6 FOR GB

    ADD THAT TO LINE-OFF 2.1 + .6 = 2.7 THATS GB IS FAV BY WITH JUST TWO OF THE 4 THING!!!!


    PENALTIES

    THIS ONE IS EASY

    ATL HAS 615 YDS VS GB 618 YDS =3 FOR ATL(LESS IS BETTER HERE)
    NOW YOU DIV THAT BY 100 =0 IN THIS CASE(IF IT WAS 150YDS DIFF...IT WOULD MEAN A 1 1/2 FOR ATL....BUT ITS NOT)


    TURN OVERS

    GB AFTER WEEK 10 HAS 22 VS ATL THAT HAS 15 = 7 FOR ATL(LESS IS BETTER HERE) YOU DIV THAT BY 3 =2.3 FOR ATL

    SO

    IF THIS GAME WAS PLAYED THIS WEEK (WEEK 11)

    YOU WOULD

    LINE-OFF G.B 2.1
    TIME G.B 0.6
    PEN.............EV
    T/O.........ATL 2.3

    DO THE MATH AND YOU GET GB FAV BY .4.....OR ROUND UP OR DOWN

    GB -1/2.....IF THEY PLAY IN GB GB WOULD BE -1......IF THEY PLAY AT ATL IT WOULD BE A PK GAME


    THIS IS HOW I GET "MY LINE"......I HAVE WORK ON THIS FOR OVER 15 YEARS....MOST OF THE TIME 80% THE LINE IS RIGHT ON BY 1-2 POINTS.....THE ONES THAT ARE 6 POINTS OR MORE I LOOK AT CLOSER

    THIS ONLY TELL YOU WHERE THE MOST VALUE IS....YOU STILL HAVE TO DO THE OTHER CAPPING.....MATCH UP....RY....PY....GIVEWAY...TAKEWAY....D-LINE.... O-LINE....SO ON ...ECT....

    SOME OF YOU WANTED TO KNOW HOW I GET IT SO LET THE ????? BEGAIN.....THIS IS NOT THAT HARD!!!!

    THE LAST 11YEARS I HAVE DONE THIS I WON 9 YEARS AND LOST 2

    1998 I LOST -$35,555.00.....IN 2001 I LOST $14,105.00... THE OTHER WINNING YEARS WAS BETWEEN $6500 TO $56,000
    56K WAS IN 2002...

    LAST YEAR ONE OF THE POSTER AT THERX,WORK WITH ME TO PUT THIS ON A SPEADSHEET.. IT TOOK A FEW MO'S FOR THIS TO WORK FOR HIM.... DONT ASK THEM FOR ONE!!!! THIS IS ABOUT DOING IT ON PAPER!!!!

    MY HOPE IS TO TEACH THIS SO YOU DONT NEED ME ANY MORE....I'M OVER 50 YEARS OLD AND STILL HAVE 30 MORE GOOD YEARS AHEAD OF ME.....


    WHY DID YOU DO IT THIS WAY...
    THIS DONT WORK WITH "TIME" OR "LINE-OFF"....OR EVEN PENALTIES???

    I HAVE ADJUSTED THIS OVER AND OVER TO COME UP WITH FORMULA

    THIS THREAD IS ONLY FOR PLAYERS THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW IT WORKS


    ACE-ACE
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  11. #36  
    *V Andrea Rincon *V FullyEclipsed's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE
    FOR THOSE THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW "MY LINE" WORKS
    <hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1">

    THIS IS HOW I GET "MY LINE"......I HAVE WORK ON THIS FOR OVER 15 YEARS....MOST OF THE TIME 80% THE LINE IS RIGHT ON BY 1-2 POINTS.....THE ONES THAT ARE 6 POINTS OR MORE I LOOK AT CLOSER

    THIS ONLY TELL YOU WHERE THE MOST VALUE IS....YOU STILL HAVE TO DO THE OTHER CAPPING.....MATCH UP....RY....PY....GIVEWAY...TAKEWAY....D-LINE.... O-LINE....SO ON ...ECT....


    ACE-ACE
    <!-- / message -->
    Ace Ace first off I want to say thank you for the lessons and time that you have dedicated to helping people out.

    I have been spending time learning this and going through last years results and doing a "MY LINE" to get a better knowledge during the offseason as well I am looking to create a spreadsheet as time permits in the next 5 months. I love the idea for college football as I see that there would be a huge market for games that have value week in and week out due to the amount of games.

    I was wondering if you can touch on the subject of how you factor in the rest of the capping after you find a value of +6.

    Is there more formulas input into this or are these factors more of "gut predictions" on your part? Do you factor in Injuries as well?

    Thank you ACE-ACE
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  12. #37  
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    Quote Originally Posted by FullyEclipsed

    I was wondering if you can touch on the subject of how you factor in the rest of the capping after you find a value of +6.

    Is there more formulas input into this or are these factors more of "gut predictions" on your part? Do you factor in Injuries as well?
    ONCE I FIND A GAME WITH +6 VALUE.....I TAKE THE 16 GAMES A WEEK AND YOU FIND ONLY 5 OF THEM AND GIVE EACH OF THOSE GAME A GOOD 1 1/2 HOURS OF CAPPING ALL PARTS OF THE GAME... THERE ARE TIMES THAT I SEE 5 WITH VALUE OF +6 AND ONLY BET 3 OF THEM

    I DO A THING CALL DIFF/TEAMS PLAY DIFF!!! VS DIFF TEAMS....OR YOU COULD CALL IT MATCH-UP....HOW ONE TEAM PLAYS VS ANOTHER TEAM...
    I THAN LOOK AT" TIME"....THIS SHOWS HOW A TIME PLAYS (ONE TEAM IS -10 IN TIME VS ANOTHER TEAM WITH +10 ...THIS TELL ME ONE OF THE TEAMS RUNS AND CONTROL THE BALL MORE....
    THE TEAM WITH +10 AND SCORE MORE OR LESS
    THE TEAM WITH -10 AND SCORE MORE OR LESS

    BOTH TELL ME HOW THEY PLAY AND WHAT I THINK WILL HAPPEN IN A GAME....PLUS YOU HAVE TO DO INJURIES...AND THE NUMBER ONE THING I LOOK AT IS T/O....IF ONE CAN ONLY KNOW WHAT TEAM WILL TURN OVER THE BALL MORE... YOU WILL WIN 80% OF YOUR GAME.....BUT....YOU CAN ONLY DO IT FROM THE GAMES PAST PLAYED!!!....NOW TOSS IN RY...PY...GIVEWAY...TAKEWAY....COACHING....HOME...SO ...ON...ECT...

    PUT EVERY THING TOGETHER AND YOU HAVE MY PICK
    THE 1ST PART IS EASY....YOU CAN GET TO KNOW HOW YOU GET THE VALUE OF +6 (THAT'S 50% OF IT)....THE OTHER 50% IS A ART OF CAPPING AND IT HARD TO TEACH.....SEEING ALL THIS JUST COME TOGETHER IN MY MIND....THAN......I SEE HOW MUCH TO BET.....WEAKER +6 VALUE IS UNDER $1000 BETS.....THE BEST ONES ARE OVER $2000

    ONE COULD BE 50/50 ON THERE BETS...AND IF YOU PUT THE MONEY ON THE RIGHT GAMES YOU COULD BE UP A LOT!!!!
    AS MY RECORD SHOW YOU

    OVER $2000 BETS WAS 36-18 66% OR +$44K VS
    UNDER 1100 BETS WAS 57-47 54% OR +$10K

    SOME YEAR I'M HAPPY WITH THE ACTION BETS(UNDER $1100 TO BE EVEN)

    YOU ASK ME IF I FACTOR "GUTS IN TO MY GAME"......AS YOU SEE ITS THE LAST 50% OF CAPPING A GAME IS THE HARDEST PART ALONE WITH MONEY MANAGEMENT......TO ANSWER THIS ...I THINK I LIKE TO CALL IT

    GUT CALCULATING ....

    IS IT A FORMULA?

    YES

    CAN YOU PUT IT ON A SPREADSHEET AND MAKE IT EASY?

    NO

    IT TAKE WORK!!! AND KNOWING HOW THE ODDS MAKER DO A LINE


    ALL THIS IS FACTOR

    WOULD LIKE YOUR FEED BACK

    BEST TO YOU

    ACE-ACE
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  13. #38  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE

    I DO A THING CALL DIFF/TEAMS PLAY DIFF!!! VS DIFF TEAMS....OR YOU COULD CALL IT MATCH-UP....HOW ONE TEAM PLAYS VS ANOTHER TEAM...
    I THAN LOOK AT" TIME"....THIS SHOWS HOW A TIME PLAYS (ONE TEAM IS -10 IN TIME VS ANOTHER TEAM WITH +10 ...THIS TELL ME ONE OF THE TEAMS RUNS AND CONTROL THE BALL MORE....
    THE TEAM WITH +10 AND SCORE MORE OR LESS
    THE TEAM WITH -10 AND SCORE MORE OR LESS

    BOTH TELL ME HOW THEY PLAY AND WHAT I THINK WILL HAPPEN IN A GAME....PLUS YOU HAVE TO DO INJURIES...AND THE NUMBER ONE THING I LOOK AT IS T/O....IF ONE CAN ONLY KNOW WHAT TEAM WILL TURN OVER THE BALL MORE... YOU WILL WIN 80% OF YOUR GAME.....BUT....YOU CAN ONLY DO IT FROM THE GAMES PAST PLAYED!!!....NOW TOSS IN RY...PY...GIVEWAY...TAKEWAY....COACHING....HOME...SO ...ON...ECT...


    YOU ASK ME IF I FACTOR "GUTS IN TO MY GAME"......AS YOU SEE ITS THE LAST 50% OF CAPPING A GAME IS THE HARDEST PART ALONE WITH MONEY MANAGEMENT......TO ANSWER THIS ...I THINK I LIKE TO CALL IT

    GUT CALCULATING ....

    IS IT A FORMULA?

    YES

    CAN YOU PUT IT ON A SPREADSHEET AND MAKE IT EASY?

    NO

    IT TAKE WORK!!! AND KNOWING HOW THE ODDS MAKER DO A LINE


    ALL THIS IS FACTOR

    WOULD LIKE YOUR FEED BACK

    BEST TO YOU

    ACE-ACE
    Thank you for the response.

    I want to make sure I understand the Diff teams play Diff Teams to help understand how they play.
    Are you saying that you look at how teams play against a certain styles of teams.
    So lets just say this for an example:

    Atlanta is a Value of +10
    They are playing against a 3-4 defense in the matchup I am looking at. Lets say I go back through their "My Line" and figure that against the 3-4 they tend to have more turnovers and less time on the field and their overall numbers for the year are skewed because when they play against the 4-3 they are much more dominant making the +10 a much less value for the game I am looking at?

    Also other styles like how they matchup against passing teams vs. running teams on the defensive side.

    Is this the right track?

    On the "my line" turnovers that get entered each week is this a number that you are adding and subtracting from?
    Meaning is this a turnover difference or is this just to keep track of the turnovers that happen for the offense?

    Example using the TO difference
    So if Dal was +2 and Atl was -10 = +12 for Dal Divide by 3 = 4 for Dal

    Example using just TO
    Dal -8 and Atl -15 = 7 for Dal divide by 3 = 2.3 for Dal

    Just want to make sure that I am using the correct way because it will make a big difference.

    Thank you ACE-ACE

    And trust me I know that a lot of work goes into capping I am not looking for a magic button to do the work for me. But it is great to learn new methods and step my abilities up every season and that is why I appreciate your input a ton!

    FullyEclipsed
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  14. #39  
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    Quote Originally Posted by FullyEclipsed
    Thank you for the response.

    I want to make sure I understand the Diff teams play Diff Teams to help understand how they play.
    Are you saying that you look at how teams play against a certain styles of teams.
    So lets just say this for an example:

    Atlanta is a Value of +10
    They are playing against a 3-4 defense in the matchup I am looking at. Lets say I go back through their "My Line" and figure that against the 3-4 they tend to have more turnovers and less time on the field and their overall numbers for the year are skewed because when they play against the 4-3 they are much more dominant making the +10 a much less value for the game I am looking at?

    Also other styles like how they matchup against passing teams vs. running teams on the defensive side.

    Is this the right track?

    On the "my line" turnovers that get entered each week is this a number that you are adding and subtracting from?
    Meaning is this a turnover difference or is this just to keep track of the turnovers that happen for the offense?

    Example using the TO difference
    So if Dal was +2 and Atl was -10 = +12 for Dal Divide by 3 = 4 for Dal

    Example using just TO
    Dal -8 and Atl -15 = 7 for Dal divide by 3 = 2.3 for Dal

    Just want to make sure that I am using the correct way because it will make a big difference.

    Thank you ACE-ACE

    And trust me I know that a lot of work goes into capping I am not looking for a magic button to do the work for me. But it is great to learn new methods and step my abilities up every season and that is why I appreciate your input a ton!

    FullyEclipsed
    GOOD JOB....YOU ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK!!!!

    THE T/O ARE ONLY GIVEAWAY ...SO THERE IS NEVER A PLUS VS A MINUS

    IF DALLAS HAS 4 LAST WEEK THAN TWO THIS WEEK THAN THEY WOULD HAVE A TOTAL OF 6.....IF THE OTHER TEAM HAD 18 TOTAL(LETS SAY DET).....YOU WOULD DO THE DIFF...= 12 FOR DALLAS DIV BY 3 = 4

    THE TAKEWAYS I LOOK AT IF "MY LINE PICK THE GAME FOR A PLAY"

    I'M ALWAY HERE TO HELP

    ACE-ACE
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  15. #40  
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    Great! I think I have a very good feel for this formula and will be working to perfect it and hopefully have as much sucess through dedication as you have.

    Thanks ACE-ACE
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  16. #41  
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    Quote Originally Posted by FullyEclipsed
    Great! I think I have a very good feel for this formula and will be working to perfect it and hopefully have as much sucess through dedication as you have.

    Thanks ACE-ACE

    CANT WAIT UNTILL FOOTBALL SEASON TO SEE HOW WE DO....I ALWAY LIKE TO SEE SOMEONE GET "MY LINE DOWN"...THAN....CAP WHAT THEY SEE.....(DIFF/PLAYERS SEE THING DIFF/IN EVERY GAME)....ITS ALL ABOUT WHAT YOU FIND VALUE IN!!!

    ACE-ACE
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  17. #42  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE
    I DO THE LAST TWO WEEKS AVG....IF DET GET T/O OF 3 IN WEEK 3 AND 5 IN WEEK 4...I WOULD PUT DOWN 4....A AVG
    SAME FOR LINEOFF
    SAME FOR TIME
    SAME FOR PENALTIES

    IT WILL GET YOU UP BY THE 3RD WEK OF THE REG/SEASON:suomi:

    ACE-ACE
    So, does this mean that this method won't work until Week 3, even if we add the preseason to get us a starting point for Week 1?
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  18. #43  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noggin
    So, does this mean that this method won't work until Week 3, even if we add the preseason to get us a starting point for Week 1?
    by adding pre-season it starts at week 3 and works the best between week 4-week 11......than the lines get tighter

    still in week 1-2 I use it a little and do my homework on all games to find the one s with the most value!!!!..it's just better (less work) after week 4

    ACE_ACE
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    Ace-

    What's your opinion on some of the information/services out there where you can find out how many bets are on one side or the other? or even totals

    Once you identify the games to look closer at, do you pay much attention to that kind of information?
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  20. #45  
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    ACE

    do you use opening or closing line for line-offs?
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  21. #46  
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    Hey love your work ace..

    Just found this article on another site. I have just copy + pasted it, dont know if im allowed to post the link to the site.. Its a pinnacle thread about how they make their nfl odds.

    The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book
    By Simon Noble
    Although the Super Bowl was played only three months ago, the draft hasn't taken place yet and training camps aren't even close to opening, it's still not too early to start thinking about the NFL if you play at Pinnacle Sports!
    The season kicks off in less than 5 months from now when the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers host the Miami Dolphins in a Thursday night match-up. Pinnacle Sports has already posted lines on every game in week 1 courtesy of our in-house team of odds makers who have handicapped the games and created the lines. But as a player, how do you go about handicapping the first week's games and trying to find an edge this far out?
    As a starting point, you should look to understand the relationship between season wins and the first week point spreads. An average team would expect to win 50% of the time or 8 games in a 16 game regular season schedule. In essence, the expected season wins for a team is just a power ranking.
    How many games would you expect a team to win, if it was a 3-point favorite for each game? First you need to convert the fair no-vig moneyline (ML) into a "percentage chance of winning" for each game. For favorites, that is the (ML quote / (ML - 100)) * 100. If the fair no-vig moneyline for a 3-point favorite is -145/+145, we would expect the 3-point favorite to win (145 /(-145-100)) * 100 = 59% of the time. If we knew a team would be a 3-point favorite for every game, we would expect it to win 16*0.59 games, or about 9.5 games.
    Although not a perfect science, you can use this knowledge to convert season-win lines into a game line for the first week. For every game better the favorite is for season wins, it should give up an additional 1 point on the spread at a neutral site. If a 9.5-win team played an 8-win team, the 9.5 win team would be a 3-point favorite on a neutral field. After that, add 3 points for home field advantage, so the 9.5 win team would be a 6-point favorite at home, or a Pick'em on the road.
    You then need to set a "baseline" using games from the prior year, in this case the 2005-2006 NFL season. While some people will simply start with the number of games a team won in the previous season, more sophisticated bettors use the "Pythagorean Theorem" for football. This formula reduces the effects of lucky and/or close wins, and gives a team more credit for blowouts and consistently solid performances.
    By way of example, consider the 2005 Tampa Bay Buccaneers regular season record of 11-5, with 300 points scored for and 274 points scored against. Instead of simply using their win/loss record, if you use the Pythagorean Theorem for football, you assume games won = (PF^2) / (PF^2+PA^2) * 8, where PF=points for and PA=points against.
    Using the Pythagorean Theorem for football, the Buccaneers' baseline would be calculated as 300*300/(300*300+274*274) * 16 which gives an expectation of 8.7 games. This suggests that Tampa Bay was very lucky to win 11 games and if they played the same season with the same roster, 9 wins would be much more likely.
    Conversely when you use the Pythagorean Theorem for football, we can see that last year Green Bay's record under evaluated the team. The Packers finished at 4-12, with 298 points for and 344 points scored against. Their baseline would be 298*298/(298*298+344*344) * 16 = 6.9 games, nearly 3 full games better than their record from last year.
    The Pythagorean Theorem is a starting point in your analysis that gives you a leg up over handicappers who don't use it. Although originally derived by Bill James for MLB, its applications have extended across many sports by changing the exponent (2 for NFL, 1.8 for MLB, and 16.5 for the NBA).
    Another adjustment you can make to your 2005 season wins baseline is the "reversion to the mean". Basically this means that no matter what a team does in a previous season, it tends to move towards winning 50% of its games the following season. Bad teams aren't quite as bad as people remember them and the dynasties eventually fade. A general rule of thumb is to move your baseline season wins about a game towards 8 for baselines between 5.5-10.5, or a full game towards 8 for very good/bad teams outside that range.
    Once you have your baseline, you should consider roster changes. Is a team peaking or rebuilding? If you see lots of older players retiring and being replaced with younger, inexperienced players, this suggests a team could be in a rebuilding stage. Younger players tend to contribute less in their first few years and in a majority of cases, you can ignore the effects of the draft on a team and focus your energies on trades/free agents acquired. If many starters are inexperienced at the top level, you typically expect that team to fare worse the next year, but gradually improve afterwards.
    If a team's roster is fairly stable, you generally expect the team to do as well or better the following year. On teams with low turnover, what is the focus of the roster additions? Adding talented veterans to an area of a team lacking experience is the quickest way to impact a team.
    Adding depth (e.g. a journeyman backup Q.B., or a fourth cornerback) will have less of an impact, but also lowers the downside variance. For an example of a team that should have put more effort into its backup QB, look no further than the 2005 New York Jets. The Jets fared well in 2004 under Pennington with a reasonable QB passer rating of 91. In 2005, the 1-1 Jets lost Pennington for the season in the third game. They won only 3 of the next 14 games with Bolinger and Testaverde struggling at QB, with a passer rating of 59 and 73 respectively.
    Analyzing roster changes is a very subjective matter. For each one you decide to evaluate (and you might choose to ignore all changes involving third-string players or deeper), try to consider how that will affect the team's play. If a team has a poor defense and an average offense, defensive changes will have a bigger impact - the defense simply has more room for improvement.
    Once you've completed your season win expectations, set your line for each game. As in the example earlier, take the difference between the two teams in season wins, multiply by 2, and add 3 for the home field advantage. If your numbers suggest a play, we are open for business at Pinnacle Sports on NFL Week 1. With our 10-cent line on NFL openers, you'll even get up to 50% better value compared to other sportsbooks when they finally get around to posting their NFL openers...
    How have the sharps bet the early week 1 NFL openers?
    Miami Dolphins +5.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
    We opened the game at +6.5, and took multiple limit bets from sharps on the dog. If you faded the Super Bowl Champion for the first 2 weeks from 1985 to 2005, you would be 28-13. Any number you put up will draw sharp versus public betting.
    Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
    Our opener of +2.5 saw moderate lopsided betting on the Chiefs, driving the number onto and past the "3". Using the Pythagorean Theorem, Cincinnati appears to have over performed in 2005, where 9.5 wins would be more reflective of the team that actually went 11-5. The early betting tends to agree that the number on the Bengals was too high.
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    <o:p> </o:p>
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  22. #47  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ats247
    ACE

    do you use opening or closing line for line-offs?
    I USE THE AM LINE THAT DAY.... 1/2 A POINT OR 1 POINT DONT MATTER THAT MUCH
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  23. #48  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noggin
    So, does this mean that this method won't work until Week 3, even if we add the preseason to get us a starting point for Week 1?
    IT HELPS A LITTLE....BUT IT DONT KICK IN UNTILL WEEK 3....SOMETIME WEEK 4



    CAINS.......THAT WAS A GOOD READ....THANKS

    ACE-ACE
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  24. #49  
    RX Member the_devil_mann's Avatar
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    Ace will there be an Excel Spreadsheet made up for the NFL similar to the NBA one posted earlier in the season?

    Thanks
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  25. #50  
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    I have been working on CFB. Bought all the stats that were required for the analyisis. Have all the formulas in and teams by schedule. Pretty much everything is done except determining how the w/l went based on the 6 or more value for ACE's line. I want to make sure I have all my ducks in a row before I offer a conclusion. Did it a bit different than Ace or the NBA spreadsheet as I based everything on the home team. Just what I am used to. Should be done within a week.
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