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Thread: Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

  1. #51  
    RX Wizard Winning Wand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE
    FOR THOSE THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW "MY LINE" WORKS
    <hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->ITS BASE ON FOUR THING
    1..LINE-OFF
    2..TIME
    3..PENALTIES
    4..TURN OVER ONLY BY THE TEAM

    LINE-OFF
    THE DIFF BETWEEN WHAT THE ODDS MAKER GIVE AND WHAT REALLY HAPPENS

    LET'S TAKE(LAST WEEK GAME BETWEEN GB AND ATL....

    THE LINE WAS ATL-9.....WHAT HAPPEN WAS GB WON BY 8+THE LINE9=17
    "THE LINE WAS OFF 17 POINTS
    THIS HAPPENS EACH WEEK AND EACH GAME

    SO YOU GIVE GB A +17 IN THEIR WEEK AND YOU GIVE ATL -17 IN THEIR WEEK.....YOU DO THIS EVERY WEEK

    THIS IS ATL............TOTAL

    PRESEASON +10
    WK1............+ 6........+16
    WK2............-2..........+14
    WK3............+10.......+24
    WK4............+14.......+38
    WK5...........-6...........+32
    WK6...........-3...........+29
    WK7...........+6...........+35
    WK8...........BYE
    WK9............+5.........+40
    WK10..........-17........+23

    GB ....DOING THE SAME THING TO THEM IS A +44

    SO YOU FIND THE DIFF/ +44 +23 = 21 FOR GB(HIGHEST NUMBER GETS THE POINTS)....THAN YOU DIV BY 10= 2.1 POINT FOR GB (ONE RULE DIFF....IF ITS OVER 50 POINTS /DIFF YOU DIV IT IN HALF...THAN DIV IT BY 100)

    THAT MEAN BASE ONLY ON "LINE-OFF G.B IS FAV BY 2.1 POINTS



    TIME

    IF ONE TEAM HAS 32 MIN THAT THE O-LINE STAYS ON THE FIELD THEY HAVE A +2.....THE OTHER TEAM HAS A -2

    DO THAT EACH WEEK......AS OF WEEK 10 GB IS +6 VS ATL+3=3 FOR GB DIV BY 5=.6 FOR GB

    ADD THAT TO LINE-OFF 2.1 + .6 = 2.7 THATS GB IS FAV BY WITH JUST TWO OF THE 4 THING!!!!


    PENALTIES

    THIS ONE IS EASY

    ATL HAS 615 YDS VS GB 618 YDS =3 FOR ATL(LESS IS BETTER HERE)
    NOW YOU DIV THAT BY 100 =0 IN THIS CASE(IF IT WAS 150YDS DIFF...IT WOULD MEAN A 1 1/2 FOR ATL....BUT ITS NOT)


    TURN OVERS

    GB AFTER WEEK 10 HAS 22 VS ATL THAT HAS 15 = 7 FOR ATL(LESS IS BETTER HERE) YOU DIV THAT BY 3 =2.3 FOR ATL

    SO

    IF THIS GAME WAS PLAYED THIS WEEK (WEEK 11)

    YOU WOULD

    LINE-OFF G.B 2.1
    TIME G.B 0.6
    PEN.............EV
    T/O.........ATL 2.3

    DO THE MATH AND YOU GET GB FAV BY .4.....OR ROUND UP OR DOWN

    GB -1/2.....IF THEY PLAY IN GB GB WOULD BE -1......IF THEY PLAY AT ATL IT WOULD BE A PK GAME


    THIS IS HOW I GET "MY LINE"......I HAVE WORK ON THIS FOR OVER 15 YEARS....MOST OF THE TIME 80% THE LINE IS RIGHT ON BY 1-2 POINTS.....THE ONES THAT ARE 6 POINTS OR MORE I LOOK AT CLOSER

    THIS ONLY TELL YOU WHERE THE MOST VALUE IS....YOU STILL HAVE TO DO THE OTHER CAPPING.....MATCH UP....RY....PY....GIVEWAY...TAKEWAY....D-LINE.... O-LINE....SO ON ...ECT....

    SOME OF YOU WANTED TO KNOW HOW I GET IT SO LET THE ????? BEGAIN.....THIS IS NOT THAT HARD!!!!

    THE LAST 11YEARS I HAVE DONE THIS I WON 9 YEARS AND LOST 2

    1998 I LOST -$35,555.00.....IN 2001 I LOST $14,105.00... THE OTHER WINNING YEARS WAS BETWEEN $6500 TO $56,000
    56K WAS IN 2002...

    LAST YEAR ONE OF THE POSTER AT THERX,WORK WITH ME TO PUT THIS ON A SPEADSHEET.. IT TOOK A FEW MO'S FOR THIS TO WORK FOR HIM.... DONT ASK THEM FOR ONE!!!! THIS IS ABOUT DOING IT ON PAPER!!!!

    MY HOPE IS TO TEACH THIS SO YOU DONT NEED ME ANY MORE....I'M OVER 50 YEARS OLD AND STILL HAVE 30 MORE GOOD YEARS AHEAD OF ME.....


    WHY DID YOU DO IT THIS WAY...
    THIS DONT WORK WITH "TIME" OR "LINE-OFF"....OR EVEN PENALTIES???

    I HAVE ADJUSTED THIS OVER AND OVER TO COME UP WITH FORMULA

    THIS THREAD IS ONLY FOR PLAYERS THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW IT WORKS


    ACE-ACE
    <!-- / message -->

    Ace,

    I could turn this into a software program if you like.
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  2. #52  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winning Wand
    Ace,

    I could turn this into a software program if you like.
    ARE WE TALKING SOFTWARE OR SPREADSHEET?.....I GOT 3 DIFF PEOPLE THAT DID SPREADSHEET.....I WOULD LIKE THE CFB PUT TO THIS....IF YOU CAN IT WOULD BE GREAT....

    TO SEE WHERE TO EMAIL ME.......HIT MY NAME ACE-ACE ....THAN VIEW

    YOU WILL SEE IT IF YOU NEED MY HELP

    THANKS

    ACE-ACE
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  3. #53  
    RX Wizard Winning Wand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE
    ARE WE TALKING SOFTWARE OR SPREADSHEET?.....I GOT 3 DIFF PEOPLE THAT DID SPREADSHEET.....I WOULD LIKE THE CFB PUT TO THIS....IF YOU CAN IT WOULD BE GREAT....

    TO SEE WHERE TO EMAIL ME.......HIT MY NAME ACE-ACE ....THAN VIEW

    YOU WILL SEE IT IF YOU NEED MY HELP

    THANKS

    ACE-ACE
    I have the spreadsheet and we can turn this into a software program. I will email you. I may need some detailed specs but it can happen. As long as we have all the variables in there. I will email you.
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  4. #54  
    RX Wizard Winning Wand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE
    I WOULD LIKE THE CFB PUT TO THIS....IF YOU CAN IT WOULD BE GREAT....ACE-ACE
    If we have the specs then yes we can buddy.
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  5. #55  
    RX Member the_devil_mann's Avatar
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    Ace do you have a link to the latest NFL spreadsheet.

    I would like to take a look at it before the season starts.

    Thanks
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  6. #56  
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_devil_mann
    Ace do you have a link to the latest NFL spreadsheet.

    I would like to take a look at it before the season starts.

    Thanks
    same here... Would be great to look at it in good time before season, and get ready..

    Ace.. I also think that article was good read.. And i have saved it for later use as well, together with you paper work here.
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  7. #57  
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_devil_mann
    Ace do you have a link to the latest NFL spreadsheet.

    I would like to take a look at it before the season starts.

    Thanks
    THERE ARE A FEW RUNNING AROUND WITH SPREADSHEET......IN THE NFL I DO IT ONLY ON PAPER...ITS EASYER FOR ME.....I DO HAVE ONE THAT I COULD SEND YOU FROM LAST YEAR....ON THIS ONE YOU HAVE TO PUT THE DATE IN.....NOT LIKE THE NBA ONE THAT IS AUTO...ONE BUTTON!!!

    IF YOU WANT IT E-MAIL ME.....HIT MY NAME ACE-ACE AND YOU WILL SEE MY E-MAIL NUMBER....
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  8. #58 need help ace 
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    Hi ace!Is it your email
    Last edited by Journeyman; 09-14-2006 at 09:42 AM.
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  9. #59  
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    Ace: Good to see your post. Now I know football season can't be far away.
    ESQAJM
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  10. #60  
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    ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!!

    I'm back!! Anyways, wanted to drop you guys a line, especially ACE. I have been busy updating the NFL spreadsheet...WITH AUTO DOWNLOAD!!! Woohoo!!! No more manually entering stats or lines. I'm 90% done. Just waiting for first lines to be posted for any games so that I can finish the program. Tune in for more details!!

    KNOCKOUT
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  11. #61  
    RX Senior passingthewind's Avatar
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    Lines are up at some places, betmill.com has them up. Knockout is it possible once it is finished it can be distributed via email and will it work with excel?
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  12. #62  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Knockout
    ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!!

    I'm back!! Anyways, wanted to drop you guys a line, especially ACE. I have been busy updating the NFL spreadsheet...WITH AUTO DOWNLOAD!!! Woohoo!!! No more manually entering stats or lines. I'm 90% done. Just waiting for first lines to be posted for any games so that I can finish the program. Tune in for more details!!

    KNOCKOUT
    AUTO BUTTONS ...


    I POSTED AT THE CFB AND COMP/ROOM ABOUT SOMEONE THAT COULD DO THIS FOR CFB ALSO......YOU ONLY HAVE 7 WEEKS TOGO....HOW EASY IS IT TO SET IT ...ONCE YOU GOT THE NFL ONE DOWN?

    ACE-ACE
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  13. #63  
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    I guarantee you I can do this in Microsoft Excel. I am going on vacation next week but when I get back, i will read through all your (Ace) notes and put something together.
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  14. #64  
    USERNAME OFFICIALLY RETIRED donkeybucks's Avatar
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    It is good to see this post back in the spotlight.

    Football must be around the corner.
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  15. #65  
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    Knockout: Could you send me a copy of the spreadsheet? Wilhelm sent you my e-mail address (username at Woohoo!!! ) last season. Welcome Back!
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  16. #66  
    RX Senior passingthewind's Avatar
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    I would assume at some point if the spread sheet becomes available possibly we could get one email to all that wants it?
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  17. #67  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE
    AUTO BUTTONS ...


    I POSTED AT THE CFB AND COMP/ROOM ABOUT SOMEONE THAT COULD DO THIS FOR CFB ALSO......YOU ONLY HAVE 7 WEEKS TOGO....HOW EASY IS IT TO SET IT ...ONCE YOU GOT THE NFL ONE DOWN?

    ACE-ACE
    CFB shouldn't be too difficult. It's all a matter of entering in the colleges and tweaking the macros just a bit. But everything else is auto. Getting schedules, getting stats, and getting lines. Are the calculations the same as the NFL? Are you planning to do all 100+ colleges?
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  18. #68  
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    Quote Originally Posted by passingthewind
    Lines are up at some places, betmill.com has them up. Knockout is it possible once it is finished it can be distributed via email and will it work with excel?
    I have a list of about 100 people who requested the spreadsheet last year. If you contacted me then, you're on the distribution list. If not, just shoot me an email.
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  19. #69  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Knockout
    CFB shouldn't be too difficult. It's all a matter of entering in the colleges and tweaking the macros just a bit. But everything else is auto. Getting schedules, getting stats, and getting lines. Are the calculations the same as the NFL? Are you planning to do all 100+ colleges?
    THE GOAL WOULD BE EVERY TEAM....

    BUT

    THIS WAS POSTED OVER IN THE CFB FORUM....

    SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR THE CFB GAMES

    Quote:
    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by Zip
    I really don't think that this will work for college. There is too much of a difference in the strength of teams played by the two opponents in a given game. Some teams play a very weak schedule early in the year
    -Zip

    </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    this is something to think about....after a spreadsheet has been made...some fine tune adjustment can be made....but...I feel that
    there not that much diff/in pitt playing sf in the nfl....THE LINE MAKER
    HAS ALL READY SET A LINE BASE ON A LOT OF THING ONE BEING
    STRENGTH OF A TEAM....."MY LINE" ONLY SHOW ERROR IN THE LINE AND WE NEED TO SEE AT LESS +6 OR MORE VALUE TO "LOOK AT IT AS A COULD BE PLAY"....ITS THE JOB OF THE CAPPER TO FIND MORE EDGES TO MAKE IT A PLAY

    MY HOPE IS THAT THERE ARE 40 GAMES THAT PLAY ON A SAT/DAY...AND WITH THE FORMULA TO FIND VALUE IN A GAME...IT ONLY PICKS 6 GAMES TO LOOK AT WITH THAT VALUE WE LOOK FOR...
    LOT EASYER CAPPING 6 GAMES VS 40

    ACE-ACE
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  20. #70  
    RX Senior passingthewind's Avatar
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    Knockout I am going to ask that Wilheim forward me your email addy so that I may be added or vice versa.
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  21. #71  
    RX Senior passingthewind's Avatar
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    Knockout when do you think it will be distributed, thanks again.
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  22. #72  
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    Quote Originally Posted by passingthewind
    Knockout when do you think it will be distributed, thanks again.
    I'm just waiting for certain websites to start posting lines. Some places posted lines that had the chalk right next to it. So it instead of -3 -130, it read it as -133 when I imported the lines. Once I find a good site, should only take 1 day. I expect to be done w/in the next 2 weeks.
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  23. #73  
    RX Senior passingthewind's Avatar
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    Awesome!!!
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  24. #74  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE
    THE GOAL WOULD BE EVERY TEAM....

    BUT

    THIS WAS POSTED OVER IN THE CFB FORUM....

    SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR THE CFB GAMES

    Quote:
    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by Zip
    I really don't think that this will work for college. There is too much of a difference in the strength of teams played by the two opponents in a given game. Some teams play a very weak schedule early in the year
    -Zip

    </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    this is something to think about....after a spreadsheet has been made...some fine tune adjustment can be made....but...I feel that
    there not that much diff/in pitt playing sf in the nfl....THE LINE MAKER
    HAS ALL READY SET A LINE BASE ON A LOT OF THING ONE BEING
    STRENGTH OF A TEAM....."MY LINE" ONLY SHOW ERROR IN THE LINE AND WE NEED TO SEE AT LESS +6 OR MORE VALUE TO "LOOK AT IT AS A COULD BE PLAY"....ITS THE JOB OF THE CAPPER TO FIND MORE EDGES TO MAKE IT A PLAY

    MY HOPE IS THAT THERE ARE 40 GAMES THAT PLAY ON A SAT/DAY...AND WITH THE FORMULA TO FIND VALUE IN A GAME...IT ONLY PICKS 6 GAMES TO LOOK AT WITH THAT VALUE WE LOOK FOR...
    LOT EASYER CAPPING 6 GAMES VS 40

    ACE-ACE
    <!-- / message -->
    Cool, ACE.

    I can get started on it. It's going to be a huge file. And will take a long time to download stats. I'll give it a shot.

    One more thing. As of now, I have no preseason loaded into the spreadsheet. Since so many people are going to be using this, I want to make sure that it mirrors what you will be posting online. So if I recall, you will be using preseason week 3 stats to start, correct? Over the course of the year, shouldn't matter much, but in the beginning, it will a bit. Can you let me know what you will be starting w/? Thanks.
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  25. #75  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Knockout
    Cool, ACE.

    I can get started on it. It's going to be a huge file. And will take a long time to download stats. I'll give it a shot.

    One more thing. As of now, I have no preseason loaded into the spreadsheet. Since so many people are going to be using this, I want to make sure that it mirrors what you will be posting online. So if I recall, you will be using preseason week 3 stats to start, correct? Over the course of the year, shouldn't matter much, but in the beginning, it will a bit. Can you let me know what you will be starting w/? Thanks.
    I TOOK THE AVG OF WEEK 3 AND 4 OF PRESEASON AND MADE IT 0NE!!!
    SO

    IF LINE OFF WAS -10 WEEK 3 AND +10 WEEK 4 IT = TO "0"
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