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Thread: Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

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  1. #1 Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!! 
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    FOR THOSE THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW "MY LINE" WORKS
    <HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->ITS BASE ON FOUR THING
    1..LINE-OFF
    2..TIME
    3..PENALTIES
    4..TURN OVER ONLY BY THE TEAM

    LINE-OFF
    THE DIFF BETWEEN WHAT THE ODDS MAKER GIVE AND WHAT REALLY HAPPENS

    LET'S TAKE(LAST WEEK GAME BETWEEN GB AND ATL....

    THE LINE WAS ATL-9.....WHAT HAPPEN WAS GB WON BY 8+THE LINE9=17
    "THE LINE WAS OFF 17 POINTS
    THIS HAPPENS EACH WEEK AND EACH GAME

    SO YOU GIVE GB A +17 IN THEIR WEEK AND YOU GIVE ATL -17 IN THEIR WEEK.....YOU DO THIS EVERY WEEK

    THIS IS ATL............TOTAL

    PRESEASON +10
    WK1............+ 6........+16
    WK2............-2..........+14
    WK3............+10.......+24
    WK4............+14.......+38
    WK5...........-6...........+32
    WK6...........-3...........+29
    WK7...........+6...........+35
    WK8...........BYE
    WK9............+5.........+40
    WK10..........-17........+23

    GB ....DOING THE SAME THING TO THEM IS A +44

    SO YOU FIND THE DIFF/ +44 +23 = 21 FOR GB(HIGHEST NUMBER GETS THE POINTS)....THAN YOU DIV BY 10= 2.1 POINT FOR GB (ONE RULE DIFF....IF ITS OVER 50 POINTS /DIFF YOU DIV IT IN HALF...THAN DIV IT BY 100)

    THAT MEAN BASE ONLY ON "LINE-OFF G.B IS FAV BY 2.1 POINTS



    TIME

    IF ONE TEAM HAS 32 MIN THAT THE O-LINE STAYS ON THE FIELD THEY HAVE A +2.....THE OTHER TEAM HAS A -2

    DO THAT EACH WEEK......AS OF WEEK 10 GB IS +6 VS ATL+3=3 FOR GB DIV BY 5=.6 FOR GB

    ADD THAT TO LINE-OFF 2.1 + .6 = 2.7 THATS GB IS FAV BY WITH JUST TWO OF THE 4 THING!!!!


    PENALTIES

    THIS ONE IS EASY

    ATL HAS 615 YDS VS GB 618 YDS =3 FOR ATL(LESS IS BETTER HERE)
    NOW YOU DIV THAT BY 100 =0 IN THIS CASE(IF IT WAS 150YDS DIFF...IT WOULD MEAN A 1 1/2 FOR ATL....BUT ITS NOT)


    TURN OVERS

    GB AFTER WEEK 10 HAS 22 VS ATL THAT HAS 15 = 7 FOR ATL(LESS IS BETTER HERE) YOU DIV THAT BY 3 =2.3 FOR ATL

    SO

    IF THIS GAME WAS PLAYED THIS WEEK (WEEK 11)

    YOU WOULD

    LINE-OFF G.B 2.1
    TIME G.B 0.6
    PEN.............EV
    T/O.........ATL 2.3

    DO THE MATH AND YOU GET GB FAV BY .4.....OR ROUND UP OR DOWN

    GB -1/2.....IF THEY PLAY IN GB GB WOULD BE -1......IF THEY PLAY AT ATL IT WOULD BE A PK GAME


    THIS IS HOW I GET "MY LINE"......I HAVE WORK ON THIS FOR OVER 15 YEARS....MOST OF THE TIME 80% THE LINE IS RIGHT ON BY 1-2 POINTS.....THE ONES THAT ARE 6 POINTS OR MORE I LOOK AT CLOSER

    THIS ONLY TELL YOU WHERE THE MOST VALUE IS....YOU STILL HAVE TO DO THE OTHER CAPPING.....MATCH UP....RY....PY....GIVEWAY...TAKEWAY....D-LINE.... O-LINE....SO ON ...ECT....

    SOME OF YOU WANTED TO KNOW HOW I GET IT SO LET THE ????? BEGAIN.....THIS IS NOT THAT HARD!!!!

    THE LAST 11YEARS I HAVE DONE THIS I WON 9 YEARS AND LOST 2

    1998 I LOST -$35,555.00.....IN 2001 I LOST $14,105.00... THE OTHER WINNING YEARS WAS BETWEEN $6500 TO $56,000
    56K WAS IN 2002...

    LAST YEAR ONE OF THE POSTER AT THERX,WORK WITH ME TO PUT THIS ON A SPEADSHEET.. IT TOOK A FEW MO'S FOR THIS TO WORK FOR HIM.... DONT ASK THEM FOR ONE!!!! THIS IS ABOUT DOING IT ON PAPER!!!!

    MY HOPE IS TO TEACH THIS SO YOU DONT NEED ME ANY MORE....I'M OVER 50 YEARS OLD AND STILL HAVE 30 MORE GOOD YEARS AHEAD OF ME.....


    WHY DID YOU DO IT THIS WAY...
    THIS DONT WORK WITH "TIME" OR "LINE-OFF"....OR EVEN PENALTIES???

    I HAVE ADJUSTED THIS OVER AND OVER TO COME UP WITH FORMULA

    THIS THREAD IS ONLY FOR PLAYERS THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW IT WORKS


    ACE-ACE
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  2. #2  
    RX Member Thomas's Avatar
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    ACE ACE, present for day 1 of aceschool. First off thanks for sharing your stuff it is very interesting to say the least and of course your record speaks for itself. I post at another forum but I always slip by here to see what the rx crew has to say, good core group here.

    My first question is when does your line kick in or how many weeks of data do you need to get comfortable with your formula ?


    Oh yeah I just turned 51 the other day so I only have 30 years to get this right as well,lol.
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  3. #3  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    This Is How The Paper Looks...32 Of Them One For Each Team

    Wk..theline...line..total....time...total..penalt...t/o..score..w-l
    ....................off..lineoff............time.....total..total...............
    Pre .............-2.......-2.........-6........-6....40yds........1....................
    1.....-7..........+20.....+18.......+1.......-5.....67yds........1...................
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    Playoff
    P
    P
    P

    Each Line One By One

    wks
    Line Off Dont Kick In Untill Week 3 (if You Put Pre In It...so I Avg Week 3-4 Of Pre Season To Get A Stating Point!!!
    Set Up Week 1-17 And Than The Play-off

    the Line
    I Do It On Sat Line....or Closing Line Or Starting Line
    It Makes No Diff!...trust Me

    line-off
    the Diffs Between What The Line Is And What Happens

    total Line-off
    if Week 1 ..is -2...week 2 Is +20....than Your Total Is +18

    time
    60mins In A Game...one Team Got 33 Min The Other Team Got 27
    one Is +3 The Other Is -3
    put This In Each Week

    total Time
    pitt -6 Preseason Week 1 +1....so The Total Is -5 Week 2 It -1....so The Total Is -6....ect....each Week

    penalties
    how Many Yds Each Game...than A Running Total 40 This Week 27 Next Week= 67...ect..ect

    t/o
    only Giveaways...than A Running Total Each Week

    score Of The Game
    pit 34-7 .. Than Who Won Ats W Or L..
    this Is Nice To Look At And Go Back To


    this Is How You Set Up Your Paper....you Need To Do 32 Of Them With The Name Of The Team At The Top
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  4. #4  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    THERE ARE 4 THING TO MY LINE.....1ST ONE


    LINE OFF


    LETS GO BACK TO THE PLAYOFFS

    DEN VS NE

    DEN TOTAL LINE OFF IS+98 NE IS +17....THE DIFF////IS 81 FOR DEN

    FORMULA

    81 DIV BY 10 = DEN -8.1......PART OF THE LINE



    ..............................................................................................

    TIME

    TOTAL TIME AT THIS POINT WAS
    NE +6 VS DEN +30.......THE DIFF////// I 24 FOR DENVER

    FORMULA

    24 DIV BY 5=4.8 FOR DENVER ADD THAT TO LINEOFF
    AND YOU GET DEN -12.9...SO FAR WITH TWO MORE FACTOR TO GO



    .................................................................................................

    PENALTIES.....

    TOTAL PENALTIES AT THIS POINT

    DEN 850 YDS VS NE 988 YDS .......DIFF///138 YDS FOR DENVER

    FORMULA

    138 YDS DIV BY 100 = 1.4 FOR DENVER

    ADD THAT TO WHAT YOU GOT 1.4 +TIME 4.8 +LINEOFF 8.1=14.3

    ONE MORE TO GO

    .......................................................................................

    TURN OVERS

    DEN GOT 20 VS NE 26 - 6 FOR DENVER (HERE LESS IS BETTER)

    FORMULA

    6 DIV BY 3 =2 FOR DENVER

    ADD THAT AND YOU GOT DENVER -16 1/2....AND THAT MY LINE""""

    THE LINE ON THE GAME WAS DEN -3
    SO THIS WAS A VALUE OF +13 1/2 POINTS!!!!

    DENVER WON AND COVER27-13 BY 14 POINT


    IF THIS WAS THIS WAY....

    AS YOU SEE DENVER WON EACH OF THE 4 THING I LOOK FOR

    BUT "IF"

    T/O WAS DEN 28 VS NE 13 =15 DIV BY 3= 5 FOR N.E.

    THIS IS WHAT YOU WOULD HAVE

    LINE OFF DEN 8.1
    TIME DEN 4.8
    PENTALT DEN 1.4
    T/O ......N.E. 5
    TOTAL WOULD BE DENVER -6 1/2
    SO ...ON....ECT....ECT


    .........................................................................................

    AFTER YOU FIND VALUE IN A GAME...

    MYLINE IS ONLY 50% OF WHAT I LOOK FOR
    NOW
    YOU HAVE TO DO ALL THE OTHER CAPPING

    I DO NOT FACTOR IN HOME FIELD IN FOOTBALL
    LAST YEAR AS IN MOST YEAR ITS EVEN
    AWAY AND HOME
    LAST YEAR IT WAS 129 HOME WINS ATS
    ...........................127 AWAY WINS ATS

    YOU GUY HAVE 5 MO'S TO SET THIS UP VS PAPER OR SPREADSHEETS....

    MY GOAL IS FOR YOU TO SEE HOW I DO "MYLINE"

    THERE IS A PERSON FROM THE UK THAT
    is a very intelligent person. You I put in the same category as you
    have worked that system well. Jeremy's expertise is stats etc and he is a
    wizard at excel programmes


    WITH HIS HELP AND OTHER THAT WANT TO TRY IT
    DO CFB NEXT YEAR WITH "MY LINE"

    YOU CANT DO 110 TEAM ON PAPER....OR YOU WOULD NOT HAVE A LIFE ...IF THIS WORKS I WILL BE DOING IT ON EXCEL ALSO!!!!

    SAME FORMULA IF YOU WANT TO TRY IT....
    I MAY PUT HOME FIELD INTO CFB...NOT SURE
    I NEED TO TEST IT FOR A BIT....


    ACE-ACE
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  5. #5  
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    Ace, I was going to email you this but I am sure someone will ask so I will post it. Can all these stats etc be found on jimfeist.? I know they will probably have none at the moment as the season is finished...

    Thanks in advance and my friend make some time for yourself!!!

    I wish you and your family a safe and blessed evening....

    majid

    Security is mostly a superstition. It does not exist in nature, nor do the children of men as a whole experience it. Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. Life is either a daring adventure, or nothing.
    Author - Helen Keller
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  6. #6  
    RX Senior ensign_lee's Avatar
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    Where do you usually get all of your data, ace? NFL.com?

    Thanks for the insights, my friend.
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  7. #7  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    You Will Not Get Lineoff Any Where You Have To Do That Yourself
    Time I Get From Cbs Sportline....i Go To The Recap Of Game Box And The T/o Pennalties,and Time Is There
    Not Sure If Jimfeist Has It...i Will Check
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  8. #8  
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    Ace thanks for the reply........

    Majid
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  9. #9  
    RX Senior ensign_lee's Avatar
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    Seems simple enough, but lots of things seem simple until you actually try them! :P

    Thank you for posting this, Ace-Ace, and I look forward to the NFL season.

    WOOOH! GO TEXANS!
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  10. #10  
    Cash-Invester Can you dig it's Avatar
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    Thanks-ACE And i wish the best of luck to you and yours my pal...
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  11. #11  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jgrif33
    So, you need to wait until the second week of the preseason before you can add input to all of the fields?
    I DO THE LAST TWO WEEKS AVG....IF DET GET T/O OF 3 IN WEEK 3 AND 5 IN WEEK 4...I WOULD PUT DOWN 4....A AVG
    SAME FOR LINEOFF
    SAME FOR TIME
    SAME FOR PENALTIES

    IT WILL GET YOU UP BY THE 3RD WEK OF THE REG/SEASON:suomi:

    ACE-ACE
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  12. #12  
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    ACE- just wanted to clarify something. One of your criteria for getting your line is "time". In one thread you said that if one team has 32 minutes of time in a game, they get +2 points and the other team gets -2 points. But, in another thread you said they get 3 points (+or-). Which one is it?

    Also, you gave an example of Denver Total Line Off was +98 vs. New England +17 for a difference of 81. You divided that by 10 to get Denver -8.1. However, you said that if the total was over 50 you divided that number in half and then divide by 100 which would be Denver -4. (81/2=40.5 then 40.5/100=.4) Which is the correct way?

    I am just trying to learn from you and I appreciate all the help?
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  13. #13  
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    for TIME, there's 60 min in game, so just say avg is 30 min for each team. the number a team gets is how far +/- its from the avg of 30. so

    so if one team had 35, the other had to have 25. this case it would be +5/-5
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  14. #14  
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    Thanks ats - so ever what team has the largest time then would be the plus # and the lowest team would be the negative #. Ex: Denver held the ball for 38 minutes and Buffalo held it for 22 minutes. Then Denver would be +8 and Buffalo would be -8? Is this the correct way to figure it?
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  15. #15  
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    ACE,

    is there a minimum value your looking for between your line vs vegas line?
    like NBA value has to be at least 6
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  16. #16  
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    BlueLab I don't think that is correct. When entering numbers by team just put in their time of possession. There are no plus and minus numbers when enterring team data. The difference comes when comparing 2 teams. One has a time of 62 minutes the other 50 =12. Just an example. When in doubt check with the boss.-
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  17. #17  
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    ctp - according to ACE there is a plus or minus when based on time. In his example he gives one team a +3 and the other team a -3 based on who had the the ball the longest. Ace could you clarify this?
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  18. #18  
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    i think CTP mixed up Time and Penalties
    you keep a running total for penalty yds, but for time you just keep total of just +/- diff each game

    bluelab, thats right. its just basically the diff from 30, if team has # higher than 30, they get + and the team with lower # gets -
    example:
    say team has ball 35 min in week 1, they get +5. week 2 they have ball for 36 min=+6, week3 have 27 min=-3. so the team's paper would look like this if just looking at time:
    wk....time.....totaltime
    1......+5........+5
    2.......+6........+11
    3......-3.........+8

    time=is actual difference of timeofpossesion for just that week
    total time= is running total for season's combined time diff. total time is what you use in the formula to come up with your line for new week
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  19. #19  
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    Thanks ats - that just answered my question! However can you explain when the difference between the "line off" number comes up over the number 50? Could you give me an example with a number over and under 50 using the formula! Thanks!
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  20. #20  
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    see where line-off may be confusing for over 50, first in GB-atl example he says divide by 2 then by 100 (think typo and should be 10). then for example den-ne playoff gm he just divides by 10.

    I think it should be, but need to check this with ace:
    when its under 50 divide by 10
    when its over 50, think divide by 2, then divide by 10


    in NBA
    under 50, divide by 2 then by 10
    over 50, divide by 2 twice then by 10
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  21. #21  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ats247
    see where line-off may be confusing for over 50, first in GB-atl example he says divide by 2 then by 100 (think typo and should be 10). then for example den-ne playoff gm he just divides by 10.

    I think it should be, but need to check this with ace:
    when its under 50 divide by 10
    when its over 50, think divide by 2, then divide by 10


    in NBA
    under 50, divide by 2 then by 10
    over 50, divide by 2 twice then by 10
    THE 100 IS A TYPO....IT SHOULD BE 10......EVERYTHING ELSE IS RIGHT

    ACE-ACE
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  22. #22  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueLab
    ACE- just wanted to clarify something. One of your criteria for getting your line is "time". In one thread you said that if one team has 32 minutes of time in a game, they get +2 points and the other team gets -2 points. But, in another thread you said they get 3 points (+or-). Which one is it?

    Also, you gave an example of Denver Total Line Off was +98 vs. New England +17 for a difference of 81. You divided that by 10 to get Denver -8.1. However, you said that if the total was over 50 you divided that number in half and then divide by 100 which would be Denver -4. (81/2=40.5 then 40.5/100=.4) Which is the correct way?

    I am just trying to learn from you and I appreciate all the help?
    TIME....THE 3 WAS THE DIFF BETWEEN THE TWO TEAMS I WAS TALKING ABOUT AT THAT MIN.......IT ONE TEAM IS 32 MIN THE OTHER TEAM IS 28 MIN ITS +2 AND -2

    LINEOFF.....THE DIV BY 100 WAS A TYPO.....THE DIFF IN THOSE TWO TEAM IS 81/2=40.5 DIV BY 10=4....PART OF THE LINE WOULD BE -4
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  23. #23  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ats247
    ACE,

    is there a minimum value your looking for between your line vs vegas line?
    like NBA value has to be at least 6
    SAME AS NBA...AT LESS +6 VALUE......MORE THE BETTER

    ACE-ACE
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  24. #24  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueLab
    Thanks ats - so ever what team has the largest time then would be the plus # and the lowest team would be the negative #. Ex: Denver held the ball for 38 minutes and Buffalo held it for 22 minutes. Then Denver would be +8 and Buffalo would be -8? Is this the correct way to figure it?
    THIS IS THE WAY....THAT WEEK BUFF IS -8....NEXT WEEK THEY ARE +2 ..THAN YOU DO A RUNNING TOTAL SO -8 +2= -6....ON...AND ON EACH WEEK
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  25. #25  
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    ACE-kinda related to email of u got about key #'s in NBA.

    here's something for NFL and is this type of thing that could somehow be used for formula of other sports?


    in all games since 1989, the team with more rushing attempts is
    3223-7494 SU/ 2909-952-115 ats

    now this doesnt really help much unless your able to acuratly predict which team will have more att. kinda see it as chicken vs egg, which came 1st.

    do teams win and cover because they run the ball more or
    does team have more att because they get the lead and holding onto win
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