How many total bets before you can "put stock" in the results

Iceman · Feb 23, 2006

I have hit at a 55% clip versus -110 lines for over 200 bets. One of the better stretches I have had in hoops, or any sports for that matter.

With this new method i was wondering how many bets you feel would start to get an indication that I would more than likely continue to hit at that win rate %?

HPark1 · Feb 23, 2006

thousands...

viking611 · Feb 23, 2006

5-10 thousand.

Fishhead · Feb 23, 2006

5,000

If after that amount you are still hitting over 54%, you obviously have proven yourself better than the GREAT majority that will attempt to do the same or better.

viking611 · Feb 23, 2006

i only need 38,825 more posts to gain the knowledge of the great "fishhead"

Iceman · Feb 23, 2006

I somewhat agree but the funny thing is that posters will beleive in anyone that is posting at a great win rate for over a few dozen plays.

Tell the Ace-Ace followers that he hasn't proven anything yet and I GUARANTEE you that you would have a fight on your hands!!!

Kornholio · Feb 23, 2006

viking611 said:
i only need 38,825 more posts to gain the knowledge of the great "fishhead"

Sorry but that aint gonna help. You've killed too many brain cells.

Salain · Feb 23, 2006

Depends not only on how many picks, but on how high the win % is and what kind of vig you're paying.

If you're paying no vig and hitting %60 over 200 bets, over 99% chance you'll be profitable long term.

Hitting 55%, you could be 95% confident that you're above 53.5% after 5000 bets.

Quick formula to std deviation on binomial distrubtions....

SQRT ( ((ratio you are winning at)*(1 - that ratio)) / number of bets placed )

so for 60% over 1000 bets you'd take SQRT ( ((0.6)*(0.4)) / 1000)
this gives you 0.015, or 1.5%. This number is called your standard error (think that's right anyway, not going to look it up)

You can be 75% confident that your real win % is within 1X this number, so between 58.5 and 61.5. You can be 95% confident that you're within 2X this number. 99% confident that you're within 3X this number, or will win > 55.5% of the time.

Those aren't exact numbers, but it does show that you'd have to hit about %60 over 1000 bets to make any conclusions paying -110.

Tulsa · Feb 23, 2006

I don't know....but

some of the numbers seem rather high.

Whatever you do over about 1,000 or so plays (probably can be realistically 800 plays) will let you know if you have it or not.

The sample size for a random draw of people is considered approaching quality size if it is 1,000. I suppose it should be about the same for you. But since you're one person and depending on the 'time' factor...how long does it take for you to get to 800 plays (time matters...the longer, the stronger the result....)

I would say that if you get a good winning percentage in 800 attempts and you do it over the course of 16 or so (14 and up) months then you can count on your ability. Good luck. tulsa

As stated in the post just above...I'm talking about playing with a $110 to win $100 type play....and 56% or higher results.