Last year I stepped back into MLB handicapping after not playing for close to a decade. I took a sabermetric approach and got pounded. I'm a number cruncher by nature and am trying to come up with some foundation from which to build upon. I would think that number crunching would be more conducive to totals, but I could be wrong. Any statheads out there that could lend a hand?
I utilize alot of stats, most of which are found on BP and some other sites. When I say I use these stats what I mean is that instead of a stat like ERA I subsitute the sabermetric stats instead. Sites like BP make adjustments for park effects, etc. that I feel give a more realistic account of how a pitcher is doing. I also pay more attention to rate stats like BB/9 and SO/9 as these stats also better reflect a pitchers current form. I don't run the numbers to get a projection, although I have played around with that in the past. For me it has not been more effective, although I am sure some folks make it work.
I don't run the numbers, so to speak. PECOTA is an interesting performance prediction system but I am not enamored enough with it that I would use it as a baseline to predict games. I check out a few different sources like the Baseball Forecaster and others, get a general feel for how I think players will do, and come up with some projections for the season. But for the most part I disregard those projections as the season goes along. I do like to use last years Pythag numbers to identify teams that over or under performed their expected win totals by a wide margin. But even then adjustments have to be made for changes year to year. The point of all this is that I use the sabermetric tools to better evaluate players and teams, but I do not run the numbers to come up with game scores, etc.
Suspect pitching beyond the top two starters, bullpen in a bit of disarray with the three big arms being 39,39, and 37 years old. With a staff that doesn't eat up innings, these guys should expect a lot of work and break down later in the year. That could spell major problems.
This is also a team that seems to falter when getting men in scoring position. Time after time last season they left men on base, Utley and Lofton being the main culprits. Lofton is out, Rowland comes in, but there is a question of adjusting to NL pictchers which for the most part are foreign to him.
As a former Phillies season ticket holder (in SC this season), this team just seems leaderless. With more youngersters betting significant playing time, it's something they need.
What was your reasoning as to thinking they could make some noise?
This is also a team that seems to falter when getting men in scoring position. Time after time last season they left men on base, Utley and Lofton being the main culprits. Lofton is out, Rowland comes in, but there is a question of adjusting to NL pictchers which for the most part are foreign to him.
As a former Phillies season ticket holder (in SC this season), this team just seems leaderless. With more youngersters betting significant playing time, it's something they need.
What was your reasoning as to thinking they could make some noise?
